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  • BTC hovers at $115K; ETF flows turn negative, short-term holder profitability drops

    BTC hovers at $115K; ETF flows turn negative, short-term holder profitability drops

    BTC hovers at $115K; ETF flows turn negative, short-term holder profitability drops

    • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a low-liquidity “air gap” between $110K and $116K, according to Glassnode.
    • The market is “re-finding its footing” after a post-all-time-high correction amidst low volume and weak conviction.
    • Spot Bitcoin ETF flows recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow marking the largest since April.

    Bitcoin is treading water around the $115,000 mark on Thursday morning in Asia, up a modest 1% over the last 24 hours, as the inevitable correction following its recent all-time high continues to unfold amidst low trading volumes and a clear lack of market conviction.

    Analysts are now closely watching a low-liquidity zone that could either serve as a new foundation for the next leg up or become a trapdoor for a deeper price drop.

    According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin has entered what it describes as an “air gap”—a low-liquidity zone between $110,000 and $116,000.

    This has occurred after the price broke down from a major supply cluster where short-term holders had previously found significant support. These “air gaps” are areas that typically see very little historical trading activity.

    They can either provide an opportunity for new buyers to accumulate positions and build a strong base, or, if demand fails to materialize, they can lead to sharp and swift moves to the downside.

    “The market is effectively re-finding its footing,” the Glassnode analysts wrote, framing the range between $110,000 (the prior all-time high) and and 116,000 (the cost basis for recent buyers ) as the new critical battleground.

    They noted that while some opportunistic buying has emerged on there cent dip, with approximately 120,000 BTC acquired by new buyers, the price has yet to reclaim key resistance levels convincingly.

    A particularly important threshold is the 116,9K level, which marks the entry point for many recent short-term holders.

    Cooling sentiment: ETF outflows and reduced leverage

    Several indicators point to a cooling of the bullish fervor that recently propelled Bitcoin to its record highs. Short-term holder profitability has dropped from a peak of 100% down to 70%.

    While Glassnode frames this as a typical development for a bull market’s mid-phase, they caution that without a fresh wave of capital inflows, this could quickly erode market sentiment.

    Indeed, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow recorded earlier this week—the largest single-day outflow since April.

    At the same time, funding rates in the derivatives market have cooled significantly, a sign of reduced leverage and a more cautious stance among speculative traders.

    Market maker Enflux offered a similar take on the current environment. “Crypto markets remain in a fragile holding pattern. Despite some relief in the altcoin space, majors like BTC and ETH are still struggling to inspire confidence,” the firm wrote in a recent client note.

    “The broader trend? Heavy legs with more or less light volume.” Enflux concluded, “Until BTC and ETH reclaim strength with volume, the path of least resistance could remain sideways to down.”

    The market’s next significant move now likely hinges on whether a new cohort of buyers is willing to step in and build a solid support base within this low-volume “air gap,” or whether another flush down towards the $110,000 level is needed to fully reset the trend.

    For now, traders remain cautious, and the bulls are yet to prove they have regained control.

    Broader market snapshot

    • BTC: While the market navigates this “air gap,” some observers are pointing to a potential, longer-term Bitcoin supply shock.

    • This is being driven by reportedly drying up reserves on Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks and steady corporate accumulation, a combination that could “uncork” a major price move after a potential dip below $110,000.

    • ETH: Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% in the last 24 hours, trading just below the $3,600 mark. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks a broad basket of crypto assets, gained 1.69% to 3,815.22.

    • Gold: Gold’s recent rally stalled on Wednesday as traders took profits. The market is currently weighing rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut against ongoing U.S. trade tensions and a looming Fed leadership shakeup.

    • This has left prices flat after a three-day gain that was driven by signs of economic weakness. Spot gold last traded at $3,372.11, down 0.24% on the day.

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  • Bitcoin rebounds to $115K after weekend selloff; Institutional ETF flows in focus

    Bitcoin rebounds to $115K after weekend selloff; Institutional ETF flows in focus

    Bitcoin rebounds to $115K after weekend selloff; Institutional ETF flows in focus

    • Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to trade above $115,000 after a selloff that saw over $1B in liquidations.
    • The recent correction was driven by weak US jobs data and a new wave of US tariffs.
    • QCP Capital views the selloff as a “leverage flush,” noting that the broader structural setup for BTC remains intact.

    Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a modest rebound as the East Asian trading day gets underway, changing hands at just over the $115,000 mark.

    This recovery comes after a punishing selloff last week that saw over $1 billion in leveraged long positions liquidated and the leading cryptocurrency briefly test the $113,000 level.



    While the bounce is a welcome sign for bulls, the market remains on edge, with investors carefully weighing signs of institutional stabilization against persistent macroeconomic fears.

    The aftermath of a ‘leverage flush’: a cautious optimism

    The latest market correction, which marked Bitcoin’s third consecutive Friday selloff, was fueled by a hawkish macroeconomic cocktail.

    Weaker-than-expected US jobs data, combined with a fresh wave of tariffs announced by Washington, triggered a broader “risk-off” mood that hit both equities and crypto.

    Altcoins bore the brunt of this downward move, with Solana (SOL) falling nearly 20% on the week and Ethereum (ETH) losing close to 10%.

    Despite this sharp drop, some market observers, like trading firm QCP Capital, remain cautiously optimistic. “The broader structural setup remains intact,” the firm wrote in a Monday note, pointing to the fact that Bitcoin had achieved its highest-ever monthly close in July.

    QCP views the recent selloff not as a fundamental trend reversal, but rather as a necessary “leverage flush”—a painful but healthy shakeout of over-leveraged positions that has historically cleared the path for renewed accumulation and the next leg higher.

    Hedging and headwinds: investors still price in downside risk

    That said, market hedging behavior suggests that investors are not yet ruling out the possibility of deeper downside.

    On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are currently assigning a 49% probability that Bitcoin will dip below the $100,000 mark before the end of 2025.

    This represents a 2 percentage point increase from the day prior, indicating that near-term anxiety is still very much present.

    This pricing reflects a market that is still on a knife’s edge.

    Downside tail risk is clearly being priced in, despite a host of supportive long-term fundamentals, which include increasing regulatory clarity, growing stablecoin adoption, and a wave of real-world asset tokenization initiatives.

    The next major catalyst for the market could come during the Asia trading day, as US issuers report their latest ETF flow data, which typically happens by mid-day Hong Kong time.

    The market’s stabilization appears to be supported by some early positive signs on this front, with Bitwise reporting $18.74 million in net inflows, a potential reversal after one of the largest ETF outflow days on record last Friday.

    If these ETF inflows continue to show strength and implied volatility begins to compress, it may provide the confirmation that the market needs to fully embrace the “buy-the-dip” narrative and shake off the macro jitters that have kept it stuck in neutral.

    Broader market snapshot

    • BTC: Bitcoin is trading back above $115,000, signaling early signs of market stabilization after a volatile week.

    • ETH: Ether is holding steady around $3,700, with Polymarket traders showing confidence that it will break above the $4,000 mark sometime in August.

    • Gold: Gold extended its rally for a third consecutive session on Monday, rising to a two-week high. The move was driven by soft US economic data, which has boosted expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. CME traders are now pricing in an 86% chance of that happening.

    • Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher after US President Donald Trump unveiled plans to sharply increase tariffs on Indian exports. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% at the open.

    • S&P 500: US stocks rebounded sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.47% to 6,329.94. The move snapped a four-day losing streak and marked the index’s best single session since May.

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  • Bitcoin drops to $115K amid third major wave of profit-taking, new tariff tensions

    Bitcoin drops to $115K amid third major wave of profit-taking, new tariff tensions

    Bitcoin drops to $115K amid third major wave of profit-taking, new tariff tensions

    • Bitcoin (BTC) fell 2.3% to ~$115,300, pressured by a third major wave of profit-taking and new US tariffs.
    • $6–8 billion in realized gains were recorded in late July, with an “OG whale” selling 80,000 BTC on July 25.
    • New tariff tensions, including measures targeting Canada, have rattled broader risk assets, including crypto.

    Bitcoin is poised to end the trading week in Asia on a weaker note, down 2.3% on the day and changing hands above the $115,300 mark.

    The leading cryptocurrency is grappling with a combination of renewed tariff pressure from the White House and a significant wave of profit-taking, following its historic run to new all-time highs.

    According to a new report by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin market has just experienced its third major profit-taking wave of the 2023–2025 bull cycle.

    A substantial $6–8 billion in realized gains were recorded in late July, indicating a significant number of investors chose to cash in on the recent price surge.

    Like the previous two phases of profit-taking in this cycle, this latest wave was defined by large spikes in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric that indicates whether coins being sold are in profit or loss. This was particularly evident among short-term holders.

    The wave was further intensified by a significant 80,000 BTC sell-off by an “OG whale” (an early, long-time holder) on July 25.

    The data provider also noted that “new whale cohorts”—those who have accumulated their Bitcoin within the last 155 days—were the dominant sellers during this period.

    In a clear sign of intent to exit positions at what were perceived as peak prices, exchange inflows surged to a massive 70,000 BTC in a single day after the OG whale’s sell-off.

    The selling pressure was not confined to Bitcoin alone; Ethereum-based whales holding assets like WBTC (Wrapped Bitcoin), USDT, and USDC also realized up to $40 million in daily profits, further supporting the narrative of a broad-based capital rotation out of some positions.

    Historically, these major profit-taking events have been followed by a two- to four-month period of market consolidation before the next major leg higher, CryptoQuant wrote in its report.

    That very pattern may be playing out again, particularly as appetite from US investors appears to be waning. The Coinbase premium, a key indicator that tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other global exchanges, has recently flipped negative.

    This suggests that American buyers are no longer willing to pay a premium for Bitcoin, a sign of cooling demand in a crucial market.

    Tariff jitters return, adding to market pressure

    Adding to this cautious internal market dynamic is the re-emergence of macroeconomic risk.

    A new round of global tariffs from the White House is dragging down markets in Asia, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI both opening in the red.

    Bitcoin, too, is not immune to these pressures. Historically, digital assets have tended to follow equity markets lower when the White House announces new tariffs, and while this correlation has shown signs of weakening, it has not disappeared entirely.

    President Trump’s latest tariff escalation, which includes new measures that specifically target Canada, has rattled broader risk assets, with equities, bonds, and crypto all seeing declines amidst fears of renewed inflation and further supply chain disruptions.

    Without a clear new macro catalyst or a resurgence of strong, structural inflows, risk-taking in the crypto market is likely to remain selective, with conviction being light. Market maker Enflux, in a note to CoinDesk, echoed this sentiment.

    “Until BTC or ETH can post a clean reclaim of recent local highs, price action may stay choppy and rotation thematic rather than trend-driven,” the firm stated, suggesting a period of sideways, volatile trading may lie ahead.

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