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  • Bitcoin is rallying due to interest rate forecasts, says Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore

    Bitcoin is rallying due to interest rate forecasts, says Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore

    Key takeaways

    • Bitcoin is trading above the $28k level for the first time since June 2022.

    • Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore believes that the interest rate forecasts are responsible for the ongoing rally by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

    • Many in the market still consider the recent banking crisis as the reason why investors are entering the crypto market.

    Interest rate forecasts behind Bitcoin’s rally

    Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been performing excellently over the past few weeks. At press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at $28,411, up by 13% over the last seven days.

    Many in the crypto space attribute the ongoing crypto rally to the collapse of a few banks, including Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. 

    However, during an interview with CNBC, Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore pointed out that Bitcoin’s rally has to do with the interest rate forecasts rather than the recent banking crisis.

    Regarding the ongoing rally, Ashmore said;

    “It is a reaction to the complete flip in interest rate forecasts in the wider economy. If you go back to before the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, there was an 83% probability that the interest rate would be increased by 100 basis points by the summer. Today, when we look at that, it is completely the opposite, and there is almost 100% of rate cuts.”

    He added that the crypto market is reacting to the probability that the Fed’s recent interest rate hikes are coming to an end.

    Interest rate cut is music to crypto investors

    With Bitcoin trading at $28k per coin, investors would be optimistic that prices could soar higher over the coming days and weeks.

    According to Ashmore, cryptocurrencies trade as risk-on assets, and an interest rate cut is music to the ears of crypto investors. 

    Ashmore also discussed the correlation between cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. According to the Coinjournal analyst, while many expect crypto to be an independent hedge, the assets still very much correlate with the stock market, especially tech stocks. He concluded that

    “The NASDAQ index rises, Bitcoin’s price also rises. The NASDAQ falls, and Bitcoin also falls a little more. The last couple of weeks have been interesting as Bitcoin has outperformed the NASDAQ. But it is a reflection of the fact that Bitcoin is trading in correlation with the interest rate forecasts.”

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  • Bitcoin’s recovery will depend on a lot of macro-activities affecting the market, says Dan Ashmore

    Bitcoin’s recovery will depend on a lot of macro-activities affecting the market, says Dan Ashmore

    • Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore says numerous factors, including inflation and rate hikes, have affected the prices of most cryptocurrencies.

    • He told CNBC that Bitcoin’s recovery would depend on numerous macro events affecting the market.

    • Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have lost more than 65% of their value since the all-time high of November 2021.

    Bitcoin’s recovery will not happen overnight

    Dan Ashmore, a cryptocurrency analyst at Coinjournal, told CNBC in a recent interview that the price recovery of cryptocurrencies will not happen overnight. When commenting about the price collapse last year, Ashmore said;

    “Entering 2022, we were at the tail-end of one of the longest and most explosive Bull Runs in recent memory. And then the world is gripped by this inflation crisis post-pandemic. We also experienced one of the swiftest rate hike cycles in recent memories. That sucked the liquidity out of all these risky assets. It is not overly surprising that we have seen this massive pullback.”

    The macro climate will play a role in market recovery 

    At press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at $21,163, down by more than 60% from the all-time high. While commenting on the possibility of price recovery, Ashmore said the macro climate would play a huge role in that regard. He said;

    “In the last month or so, we have seen slightly more positive readings. It still has a long way to go, but it is brighter than it looked a month or two ago. We still have a long way to go before we get back to that $69,000 all-time high. This is not going to be an overnight process.”

    He added that the rise depends on a whole range of variables in the macro climate going our way. Furthermore, the avoidance of incidents such as the LUNA, FTX, and Celsius crashes could help boost the market in the long term.

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