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Tag: Bitfinex

  • Bitfinex: Bitcoin could hit $200k by mid-2025 with mild price corrections

    Bitfinex: Bitcoin could hit $200k by mid-2025 with mild price corrections

    Bitcoin green
    • Bitfinex analysts believe Bitcoin could reach between $140,000 – $200,000 by mid-2025
    • “Consistent buying pressure” with ETFs will see future Bitcoin price correction “shorter in duration”
    • If Bitcoin follows the 2021 cycle, it has the potential to reach $339,000

    Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 under “favorable conditions,” according to a new report from Bitfinex analysts.

    In its Bitfinex Alpha report, published on December 16, analysts noted that Bitcoin has achieved unprecedented milestones in 2024, surpassing a $2 trillion market capitalization and reaching a new all-time high of above $100,000.

    The analysts added that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have emerged as a dominant force, with US spot ETF inflows reaching $35.5 billion.

    “Looking ahead, we believe the current run-up to over $100,000 has captured a significant portion of Bitcoin’s price appreciation for this cycle,” the analysts wrote. “Our minimum price target for Bitcoin remains at $140,000 – $200,000 around mid-2025.”

    Bullish movement post-halving

    Looking to 2025, the analysts believe that any corrections will “remain mild, thanks to institutional inflows.” They also point out that as 2024 was a halving year for Bitcoin, “historically the following year post halving has been bullish.”

    “In previous cycles, once Bitcoin entered price discovery following a halving, corrections before mean reversion to new ATHs were relatively contained,” the analysts wrote. “In the 2017 cycle, the maximum correction was 33.2 percent, while the 2020 cycle saw a slightly smaller correction of 27.1 percent.”

    According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin’s current bull cycle, which started in mid-to-late 2023, the asset’s corrections have been smaller since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January. Analysts believe that with “consistent buying pressure,” future corrections will be “limited and potentially shorter in duration.”

    Bitcoin at $339,000?

    Bitfinex predicts Bitcoin’s price could peak at $339,000, if it follows the pattern of the 2021 cycle; however, if it follows the 2017 cycle with diminishing returns, Bitcoin could hit around $290,000 by 2026.

    At the time of publishing, Bitcoin is trading under $104,000, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Yesterday, the crypto asset reached a new all-time high of above $108,000.

    Market sentiment has surged since President-elect Donald Trump won the US election in November. Since then, Trump has appointment several pro-crypto candidates in the run up to his administration entering the White House in January.

    Earlier this month, Trump named pro-crypto Paul Atkins as the next Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He’ll take over from current Chair Gary Gensler who’s stepping down on January 20.

    Trump also has Tesla CEO Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to “dismantle government bureaucracy.” Meanwhile, David Sacks will be the lead policy advisor on artificial intelligence and crypto.

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  • Bitfinex Securities launches first tokenized US Treasury bill in El Salvador

    Bitfinex Securities launches first tokenized US Treasury bill in El Salvador

    • Bitfinex Securities is teaming up with NexBridge to bring a tokenized US Treasury bill to El Salvador.
    • USTBL leverages Bitcoin’s technology of Liquid Network and Blockstream AMP.
    • Proceeds of the $30 million initial raise are to be allocated in iShares Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF, per the announcement.

    Bitfinex Securities and NexBridge, a digital asset issuer focused on tokenization of financial assets, have teamed up to launch the first tokenized US Treasury bill in El Salvador.

    The tokenized T-bill, USTBL, leverages Bitcoin technology. Specifically, the issuers are leveraging the flagship digital asset’s Liquid Network and Blockstream AMP, an asset management platform that allows users to issue and manage crypto assets on the Liquid Network.

    Subscriptions for the USTBL open on Nov. 19

    According to a press release, the product will have an initial offering soft capped at $30 million, and will offer investors access to US Treasury returns in USD. USTBL is backed by iShares Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF, the short-term Treasury bond ETF of asset management giant BlackRock.

    Initial subscriptions open on November 19, 2024, and closes on November 29. However, investors will also get access via further subscription windows. Subscriptions are initially available in the stablecoin Tether (USDT), while the issuers have plans to add support for Bitcoin (BTC).

    “The inclusion of USTBL tokens in investment portfolios will enable investors to balance digital asset exposure with the stability of traditional finance, offering a new level of diversification that can help reduce overall portfolio risk,” Jesse Knutson, head of operations at Bitfinex Securities, said in a statement.

    Michele Crivelli, founder of NexBridge, added:

    “By leveraging Bitcoin’s technology and infrastructure, we’re laying the foundation for a globally accessible financial ecosystem, bringing tokenized U.S. Treasuries to investors worldwide while maintaining full regulatory compliance.”

    This launch comes amid massive traction across real-world assets tokenization. The RWA on-chain market has grown rapidly with products such as funds, bonds and credit.

    According to rwa.xyz, the global RWA market is currently over $13 billion, with tokenized US treasuries, bonds and cash equivalents at $2.4 billion.

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  • US prosecutors urge judge to hand Bitfinex hack mastermind five-year sentence

    US prosecutors urge judge to hand Bitfinex hack mastermind five-year sentence

    Samourai Wallet co-founder released on $1M bond
    • The Bitfinex crypto hack resulted in the theft of 120,000 Bitcoin
    • Ilya Lichtenstein used a series of sophisticated methods to hide the stolen funds between 2016 and 2022
    • He told his wife and co-conspirator about the hack in 2020 who then helped him to hide the stolen assets

    US prosecutors have told a judge that the mastermind behind the Bitfinex exchange hack should receive five years in prison.

    Ilya Lichtenstein, who pleaded guilty last year after stealing 120,000 Bitcoin, was arrested in 2022. His wife and co-conspirator Heather Morgan was also taken into custody, in connection to the 2016 Bitfinex crypto hack. During their arrest, police seized Bitcoin worth around $71 million at the time of the hack.

    According to Bloomberg, a court filing was submitted to the US District Court of Columbia, US prosecutors say Lichtenstein should receive a longer sentence than Morgan, also known as rapper Razzlekhan.

    Last week, federal prosecutors recommended that Morgan receive an 18-month prison sentence given her “substantial assistance” in the case and the fact that she didn’t know her husband had hacked into Bitfinex.

    Prosecutors argued that a stronger sentence for Lichtenstein would help deter young cybercriminals from attempting the same thing. According to them, this online activity is “normalized in a way that trivializes the impact on the victims.”

    By giving a tougher sentence, prosecutors believe it will “help to break this cycle.”

    Sole responsibility for the hack

    While it was initially believed that both of them were involved in the exchange’s hack, Lichtenstein was identified as the primary person responsible.

    It was only in 2020 that Morgan found out about what her husband had done and admitted to helping him hide the stolen crypto. Following the hack, Lichtenstein transferred around 120,000 Bitcoin into a self-custody wallet under his control.

    Over the next few years, he withdrew 25,000 Bitcoin, laundering the stolen funds through darknet markets, non-compliant virtual currency exchanges, and mixers and tumblers, including Bitcoin Fog, Helix, and ChipMixer.

    With Morgan’s help, the pair used the stolen funds to buy nonfungible tokens (NFTs), gold, and Walmart gift cards.

    Prosecutors have not pushed the judge to give Lichtenstein the maximum sentence due to his assistance in other criminal cases. For instance, in February, Lichtenstein testified as a government witness in a money-laundering trial against Bitcoin Fog.

    The pair are scheduled to be sentenced in November.

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  • Bitfinex analysts say BTC is in “transition”

    Bitfinex analysts say BTC is in “transition”

    • The number of Bitcoin wallets with non-zero BTC balance recently hit a new all-time high of 45.388 million.
    • However, daily active addresses and daily confirmed transactions have fallen.
    • Bitcoin price remains bullish but analysts urge caution as on-chain metrics indicate weakness amid renewed correlation with S&P 500.

    Bitcoin price currently trends above$28,300, about 0.7% higher in the past 24 hours. The slight uptick follows the crypto market moving beyond rumours around a Red Notice warrant for Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. 

    Bitcoin’s resilience also comes after the market reacted upward on Twitter CEO Elon Musk’s move to replace the platform’s bird symbol with a Shiba Inu dog, a symbol for DOGE – the native token of the original meme crypto Dogecoin. 

    DOGE price shot up more than 30% to above $0.1 for the first time since early December 2022.

    Bitcoin growth outlook: non-zero balance wallets hit 45.4 million

    Bitcoin continues to see huge demand as non-zero balance wallets grow to more than 45 million, according to details shared in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report.

    But even as the benchmark cryptocurrency records a new high for small BTC holders , with this the fastest rate non-zero balance wallets have grown since early 2021, analysts commenting on Bitcoin price in the report suggest investors might have to be a bit cautious in the short term.

    According to on-chain data, non-zero addresses count hit 45.388 million last week as Bitcoin price held above$27k to end the first quarter on a bullish note.

    The jump in non-zero balance wallets marks a positive development for the network and for Bitcoin price, with this metric’s growth suggesting that more investors have recently entered the Bitcoin market. In any case, an increase in non-zero balance holders often points to new demand, particularly from small investors.

    Yet, this positive outlook aside, other on-chain metrics suggest bulls may need to be cautious in the short term. As noted in the Bitfinex Alpha report, the market is in a transition and indecisive.

    “A transition state is characterised by choppy market conditions where the price consolidates in a tight range before trending in either direction. Despite an influx of new market entrants, the sustainability of this phenomena of both rapidly growing non-zero balances and tight range-trading for Bitcoin remains uncertain,” they noted.

    BTC price – key on-chain metrics suggest weakness

    Bitfinex analysts suggest that other metrics indicate Bitcoin price may continue to consolidate around $28 as both bulls and bears remain indecisive.

    Among key on-chain metrics to watch are bitcoin network statistics related to daily active addresses and daily confirmed transactions. 

    For instance, the 7-day moving average of daily active addresses recently dropped to levels last seen in late January. The number of confirmed daily transactions have also declined. 

    In the past two weeks, the Bitcoin network recorded a 7-day average of 293,058 transactions with the figures on 30 March suggesting a 13% decline from data recorded on 8 March. The Bitfinex analysts commented on the two metrics:

    “While this is an inconclusive indicator in terms of bullish or bearish signals, daily activity and transactions decreasing for Bitcoin have always occurred at transitionary phases in the crypto market. They suggest indecision and an unsettling predicament for both bulls and bears.”

    Bitcoin’s correlation with S&P 500 – is it rising again?

    While bulls attempt to strengthen above $28k again, data shows BTC correlation with stocks is increasing after falling significantly in early March, with BTC price outperforming the major US indices over the month and year-to-date at the end of Q1, 2023.

    However, per the Bitfinex report and as CoinJournal analyst Dan Ashmore highlighted last week, Bitcoin is on track to restore its correlation with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite as its price continues to hover between $27k and resistance above $28k. 

    Notably, the Pearson metric shows BTC/NASDAQ correlation is up to 0.61 while correlation with the S&P 500 reads 0.12. 

    Any value above zero indicates a positive correlation and these figures suggest Bitcoin could trade more in lockstep with equity indices amid macroeconomic headwinds.

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  • Bitcoin on-chain metrics are now bullish: Bitfinex

    Bitcoin on-chain metrics are now bullish: Bitfinex

    • Bitfinex market report points to bullish metrics for BTC
    • Supply in Profit, Bitcoin Realised HODL (RHODL) Multiple and Reserve Risk ratio are all flashing green.
    • Bitcoin has traded to above $23k again after slipping on Monday following broader market reaction to economic news.

    Bitcoin is trading around $23,360 at the time of writing, about 2.4% up in the past 24 hours as cryptocurrencies flash green on Tuesday amid an improving market sentiment.

    For the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap, it appears on-chain metrics are ticking further north to suggest a strengthening bullish case.

    Supply in Profit up 20%, points to buy signal

    According to analysts at Bitfinex, one of Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics suggesting fresh upside momentum is likely the Supply in Profit indicator. Data shows bulls look to have successfully absorbed selling pressure as short-term and some long-term HODLers turn profitable.

    An observation of the metric on the 90-day time frame highlights a 20% jump for the “supply in profit” chart in January 2023, the analysts wrote in the report released on Monday.

    “This implies that larger and longer-term investors currently hold profitable on-paper spot positions. This is healthy for the latter half of a bear market as a sustained 30-day uptrend after an extensive downtrend on this indicator has historically provided a good buy signal for the following two years,” the Bitfinex team noted.

    As far as markets are concerned, the above scenario doesn’t mean that the crypto market is set for an “up-only” move. However, the outlook does suggest bulls have an upper hand in the spot markets, a scenario that’s historically reflective of “late bear and early bull markets.”

    The Bitcoin Realised HODL (RHODL) Multiple, historically also bullish, has also been in an uptrend. According to data, the RHODL Multiple has remained positive over a 90-day window, to also suggest profitability for HODLers.

    Key metrics suggest a 10x jump for BTC price

    Apart from the 90-day EMA, other technical indicators flipping green include the net adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio. Per on-chain data, the indicator is currently above one, which suggests that net sales across the Bitcoin market are profitable.

    Also, the Realised Profit to Losses (RPLR) ratio is above zero, which also confirms the profitable selling observed in past few weeks. The metric is currently moving towards 0.2, a reading comparable to the RPLR measure when Bitcoin price fell to lows of $3,600 in 2019. After the RPLR hit 0.2, BTC price flipped green and rallied 19x, hitting its all-time high in November 2021.

    Bitcoin Realized Profit Loss Ratio chart by Glassnode

    With the metric approaching this ratio when Bitcoin fell to lows of $16,000, the possibility of another 10x rally could see BTC target highs of $160,000 over the next two-three years.

    Bitcoin’s reserve risk ratio suggests HODLer conviction is high

    Looking at a longer time frame, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are also pointing to a bullish outlook. One odf these technical indicators is the Reserve Risk ratio.

    According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin’s reserve risk ratio has fallen to its all-time low. This puts the metric lower than when markets bottomed in 2019 or 2020, Bitfinex analysts pointed out.

    As the ratio is a cyclical oscillator that highlights price vs. HODLer conviction, with incentive to sell factored against opportunity cost, a very low ratio translates to a higher conviction among investors.

    A positive outlook for Bitcoin is also seen in the Market Value Realised Value (MVRV) ratio, which has recovered and has often coincided with historically bullish returns.

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