Tag: expire

  • Crypto overview: Markets calm as $4.3B in BTC and ETH options expire

    Crypto overview: Markets calm as $4.3B in BTC and ETH options expire

    businessman trader analyst in glasses spectacles with notebook and thinking, on diagram background. Trading on stock exchange concept

    • Over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire today, December 12.
    • BTC trades above $92,300, with a maximum pain level at around $90,000.
    • Data shows balanced calls and puts, signaling a cautious stance among traders.

    Cryptocurrencies remained elevated on Friday as Bitcoin recovered from post-FOMC retracements.

    While most tokens trade below their key resistance zones, today’s gains brightened the mood across majors as uncertainty dominates even after the highly anticipated December 10 rate cut.

    Amidst the optimism, the primary story remained the over $4.3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today, on December 12.

    With BTC price pinned above $92,300, analysts believe the event could shape the broader market’s trajectory as we close 2025.

    Markets steady amid balanced expiry

    Deribit revealed a curiously balanced options board, with 18,974 call contracts and 20,852 put contracts, for a combined open interest of 39,826.

    Most importantly, a 1.10 put-call ratio confirms balance, with neither side dominating the market.

    Clearly, there are no aggressive actions or euphoric calls that generally herald parabolic moves.

    Rather, traders have positioned themselves to keep price fluctuations predictable and tight.

    And that seems to work, as Bitcoin and Ethereum traded calmly as billions in notional value near a deadline.

    Deribit analysts stated:

    BTC positioning is tightly centered around the $90K level. Call and put interest sit in near balance, suggesting traders expect a contained expiry after the recent range-bound tape.

    $90,000 as the magnet

    The crypto community’s attention remained on the max pain region of $90,000 – where options bulls stand to suffer.

    Generally, whales or market movers drive prices toward max pain.

    Meanwhile, Derbit’s chart shows puts stacked massively between $75,000 and $85,000, with call interest heavy at $95,000 – $100,000.

    Thus, Bitcoin is hovering at the most balanced region of around $90,000 – $92,000.

    That indicates a calm market with no dramatic moves.

    On the other hand, Ethereum is trading at $3,250, above its $3,100 max pain level, with open interest of 237,879 comprising 130,579 put contracts and 107,282 call contracts.

    That leads to a 1.22 put-call ratio and approximately $770 notional value.

    Indeed, Bitcoin is displaying restraint despite the massive notion value (nearly $3.7 billion is linked to BTC options only).

    There’s no such thing as sudden liquidations, panicked shakeouts, or forced price gains.

    That level of calmness during high-stakes events like options expiry seems rare, leaving most market players alert.

    A market that ignores imminent pressure often waits for the next catalyst.

    What’s next?

    Options expiry weighs on crypto prices, and digital tokens often set clear directions after the event.

    The options will expire at 8 pm UTC, and traders will closely watch post-performance.

    Clearing $93,000 – $94,000 can trigger near-term recovery, with fresh calls toward the $100,000 psychological mark.

    However, losing $90,000 could mean a continued near-term struggle for Bitcoin.

    Meanwhile, traders and investors will watch signs of thin liquidity amid holiday sessions, which often intensifies moves, and year-end institutional repositioning through key indicators like ETFs.

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  • Bitcoin volatility rising as $4.2 billion options set to expire Friday

    Bitcoin volatility rising as $4.2 billion options set to expire Friday

    Key Takeaways

    • Bitcoin volatility is the highest point since July 2022
    • Liquidity is extremely thin which is pushing volatility higher and accentuating price moves
    • $4.2 billion of options expire Friday, with bull set to profit following the recent surge up to $28,000

    Yesterday, I wrote a piece looking at how the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market, notably tech stocks, has come back up. The relationship had loosened amid the banking turmoil that struck financial markets, triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

    As well as rising correlation, the market is also swinging wildly – the volatility is as high as it has been since July 2022, around the time Celsius sent evaporated into thin air and sent the market into mayhem.

    Why is volatility rising?

    The volatility spike is not surprising in light of the glut of liquidity currently in the markets. We crafted up a piece on this earlier this week, assessing how 45% of stablecoins had flowed out of exchanges in the last four months, with the balance now at the lowest point since October 2021. 

    It gives context to the recent Bitcoin price rise. With less liquidity in the markets, moves are naturally more violent, and Bitcoin has surged up to $28,000, now up 68% on the year. 

    While the move to the upside has been exacerbated by this thin liquidity, the opposite also holds true: the downside risk is elevated when markets are so thin. 

    It paints a picture of high risk for an asset that already oscillates wildly at the best of times. 

    Derivatives add to volatility

    Another factor? Derivatives open interest is absolutely soaring, with the below chart from Coinglass showing that options open interest is at its highest point since November 2021. 

    As I write this on March 31st, a mammoth $4.2 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire. The below chart also shows the strike prices of the options – with a call/put ratio of 2.09 and Bitcoin currently trading close to $28,000, it will be a profitable day for many traders. 

    Digging into the numbers, there are 97,300 call options expiring at a strike price of $28,000 or less, compared to 24,500 put options. The dollar split is over $2 billion in favour of calls. 

    Looking at strike prices of the next level up, it is pretty much all call options. Between $28,000 and $32,000 there are 48,000 call options against 400 put options with a $1.4 billion split in favour of calls. 

    After a year of bears dominating, there will finally be some bulls primed to profit. 

    Indeed, looking at the Bitcoin spot holdings, it is showing more positive news all across the market. In December, the majority of Bitcoins were in loss-making positions, when comparing the market price to the price at which they last moved. 

    Today, however, 74% of the supply is in profit when using the same metric. 

     

    With interest rate policy expectations softening, Bitcoin has finally been allowed room to run. However, with thin liquidity and high volatility comes risk, although when it comes to Bitcoin, risk is hardly a foreign concept.

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