Tag: flows

BTC hovers at $115K; ETF flows turn negative, short-term holder profitability drops
- Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a low-liquidity “air gap” between $110K and $116K, according to Glassnode.
- The market is “re-finding its footing” after a post-all-time-high correction amidst low volume and weak conviction.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flows recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow marking the largest since April.
Bitcoin is treading water around the $115,000 mark on Thursday morning in Asia, up a modest 1% over the last 24 hours, as the inevitable correction following its recent all-time high continues to unfold amidst low trading volumes and a clear lack of market conviction.

Analysts are now closely watching a low-liquidity zone that could either serve as a new foundation for the next leg up or become a trapdoor for a deeper price drop.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin has entered what it describes as an “air gap”—a low-liquidity zone between $110,000 and $116,000.

This has occurred after the price broke down from a major supply cluster where short-term holders had previously found significant support. These “air gaps” are areas that typically see very little historical trading activity.

They can either provide an opportunity for new buyers to accumulate positions and build a strong base, or, if demand fails to materialize, they can lead to sharp and swift moves to the downside.

“The market is effectively re-finding its footing,” the Glassnode analysts wrote, framing the range between $110,000 (the prior all-time high) and and 116,000 (the cost basis for recent buyers ) as the new critical battleground.

They noted that while some opportunistic buying has emerged on there cent dip, with approximately 120,000 BTC acquired by new buyers, the price has yet to reclaim key resistance levels convincingly.

A particularly important threshold is the 116,9K level, which marks the entry point for many recent short-term holders.

Cooling sentiment: ETF outflows and reduced leverage

Several indicators point to a cooling of the bullish fervor that recently propelled Bitcoin to its record highs. Short-term holder profitability has dropped from a peak of 100% down to 70%.

While Glassnode frames this as a typical development for a bull market’s mid-phase, they caution that without a fresh wave of capital inflows, this could quickly erode market sentiment.

Indeed, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow recorded earlier this week—the largest single-day outflow since April.

At the same time, funding rates in the derivatives market have cooled significantly, a sign of reduced leverage and a more cautious stance among speculative traders.

Market maker Enflux offered a similar take on the current environment. “Crypto markets remain in a fragile holding pattern. Despite some relief in the altcoin space, majors like BTC and ETH are still struggling to inspire confidence,” the firm wrote in a recent client note.

“The broader trend? Heavy legs with more or less light volume.” Enflux concluded, “Until BTC and ETH reclaim strength with volume, the path of least resistance could remain sideways to down.”

The market’s next significant move now likely hinges on whether a new cohort of buyers is willing to step in and build a solid support base within this low-volume “air gap,” or whether another flush down towards the $110,000 level is needed to fully reset the trend.

For now, traders remain cautious, and the bulls are yet to prove they have regained control.

Broader market snapshot
- BTC: While the market navigates this “air gap,” some observers are pointing to a potential, longer-term Bitcoin supply shock.
- This is being driven by reportedly drying up reserves on Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks and steady corporate accumulation, a combination that could “uncork” a major price move after a potential dip below $110,000.
- ETH: Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% in the last 24 hours, trading just below the $3,600 mark. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks a broad basket of crypto assets, gained 1.69% to 3,815.22.
- Gold: Gold’s recent rally stalled on Wednesday as traders took profits. The market is currently weighing rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut against ongoing U.S. trade tensions and a looming Fed leadership shakeup.
- This has left prices flat after a three-day gain that was driven by signs of economic weakness. Spot gold last traded at $3,372.11, down 0.24% on the day.
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August 7, 2025
Bitcoin rebounds to $115K after weekend selloff; Institutional ETF flows in focus
- Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to trade above $115,000 after a selloff that saw over $1B in liquidations.
- The recent correction was driven by weak US jobs data and a new wave of US tariffs.
- QCP Capital views the selloff as a “leverage flush,” noting that the broader structural setup for BTC remains intact.
Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a modest rebound as the East Asian trading day gets underway, changing hands at just over the $115,000 mark.

This recovery comes after a punishing selloff last week that saw over $1 billion in leveraged long positions liquidated and the leading cryptocurrency briefly test the $113,000 level.

While the bounce is a welcome sign for bulls, the market remains on edge, with investors carefully weighing signs of institutional stabilization against persistent macroeconomic fears.

The aftermath of a ‘leverage flush’: a cautious optimism

The latest market correction, which marked Bitcoin’s third consecutive Friday selloff, was fueled by a hawkish macroeconomic cocktail.

Weaker-than-expected US jobs data, combined with a fresh wave of tariffs announced by Washington, triggered a broader “risk-off” mood that hit both equities and crypto.

Altcoins bore the brunt of this downward move, with Solana (SOL) falling nearly 20% on the week and Ethereum (ETH) losing close to 10%.

Despite this sharp drop, some market observers, like trading firm QCP Capital, remain cautiously optimistic. “The broader structural setup remains intact,” the firm wrote in a Monday note, pointing to the fact that Bitcoin had achieved its highest-ever monthly close in July.

QCP views the recent selloff not as a fundamental trend reversal, but rather as a necessary “leverage flush”—a painful but healthy shakeout of over-leveraged positions that has historically cleared the path for renewed accumulation and the next leg higher.

Hedging and headwinds: investors still price in downside risk

That said, market hedging behavior suggests that investors are not yet ruling out the possibility of deeper downside.

On the prediction market Polymarket, traders are currently assigning a 49% probability that Bitcoin will dip below the $100,000 mark before the end of 2025.

This represents a 2 percentage point increase from the day prior, indicating that near-term anxiety is still very much present.

This pricing reflects a market that is still on a knife’s edge.

Downside tail risk is clearly being priced in, despite a host of supportive long-term fundamentals, which include increasing regulatory clarity, growing stablecoin adoption, and a wave of real-world asset tokenization initiatives.

The next major catalyst for the market could come during the Asia trading day, as US issuers report their latest ETF flow data, which typically happens by mid-day Hong Kong time.

The market’s stabilization appears to be supported by some early positive signs on this front, with Bitwise reporting $18.74 million in net inflows, a potential reversal after one of the largest ETF outflow days on record last Friday.

If these ETF inflows continue to show strength and implied volatility begins to compress, it may provide the confirmation that the market needs to fully embrace the “buy-the-dip” narrative and shake off the macro jitters that have kept it stuck in neutral.

Broader market snapshot
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading back above $115,000, signaling early signs of market stabilization after a volatile week.
- ETH: Ether is holding steady around $3,700, with Polymarket traders showing confidence that it will break above the $4,000 mark sometime in August.
- Gold: Gold extended its rally for a third consecutive session on Monday, rising to a two-week high. The move was driven by soft US economic data, which has boosted expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. CME traders are now pricing in an 86% chance of that happening.
- Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened higher after US President Donald Trump unveiled plans to sharply increase tariffs on Indian exports. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% at the open.
- S&P 500: US stocks rebounded sharply on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.47% to 6,329.94. The move snapped a four-day losing streak and marked the index’s best single session since May.
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August 5, 2025
Bitcoin consolidates below $120K; Analysts say Ethereum flows will guide next market move
- The crypto rally has stalled, with Bitcoin struggling to challenge the $120K level as institutional investors take profit.
- Institutional ETF inflows into Bitcoin have plunged by 80% this week to just $496 million, a sign of cooling demand.
- Market focus is now shifting to Ether (ETH), with its capital flows seen as the key to the market’s next move.
The powerful cryptocurrency rally is showing signs of fatigue, with Bitcoin struggling to challenge the $120,000 mark and key indicators pointing to a significant pullback from institutional investors.

As the market enters a tense consolidation phase, observers say the focus is now shifting to Ether (ETH) and whether it has the strength to bring fresh capital back into the fold and reignite the bullish momentum.

After briefly touching new all-time highs last week, the crypto market has entered a period of consolidation, and the underlying data is revealing some cracks in the bullish facade.

Glassnode data highlights a dramatic cooling of institutional interest, with inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs plunging by a staggering 80% this week to just $496 million.

This was accompanied by a sharp decline in ETF trading volume, which fell to $18.7 billion.

Bitcoin’s spot market sentiment is also showing signs of weakening.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI)—a popular technical indicator used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold—has been retreating sharply, underscoring a move away from previously overbought levels.

Taken together, these signals point to a clear, albeit perhaps temporary, institutional withdrawal from the market, raising questions about the potential for further downside.

A tense derivatives market: hedging and profit-taking on the rise

Trading firm QCP Capital has noted similar tensions in the derivatives market.

While funding rates for perpetual futures remain elevated at above 15%, suggesting that some traders are still maintaining aggressive long positions, recent flows indicate that large, sophisticated players are actively taking profits and hedging against potential downside.

QCP, in its recent note, pointed out that a major ETH call fly (a complex options strategy) was recently unwound, while sizeable BTC put options were bought for protection.

This is not the kind of market activity that typically supports a fresh leg up in a rally.

Despite these cautionary signals, QCP remains broadly constructive on the market’s outlook.

“Momentum, narrative strength, and macro tailwinds are still on our side,” the firm wrote in a recent update. “Hodlers and institutions will likely buy the dip, as we saw on Friday.”

The Ethereum litmus test: consolidation, capitulation, or the next leg up?

Market maker Enflux, however, isn’t sounding the alarm just yet. The firm views the current market conditions as a period of healthy consolidation, not a sign of impending capitulation.

They note that spot and perpetual futures markets are essentially treading water, not bleeding out.

The key to what comes next, according to Enflux, lies with Ethereum.

“How institutional ETH flows evolve, and whether capital re-engages with alts, would likely guide the next leg of market structure,” the firm said in a note to CoinDesk.

Ethereum now finds itself at the center of these diverging perspectives.

If institutional investors, who have been stepping back from Bitcoin, decide to rotate their capital back into the crypto market through ETH, it could reignite the altcoin cycle and lift the entire market.

If not, this period of consolidation could harden into something more prolonged and painful.

For now, the rally has paused. Glassnode sees fragility in the current market structure. Enflux sees neutrality. QCP sees a hedged optimism.

But all seem to agree that the next major breakout—or breakdown—will likely be sparked by how capital flows into and out of Ethereum materialize in the coming days and weeks.

Broader market snapshot
- BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $118,000, consolidating between channel support at $114,000 and resistance near its all-time high of $123,000.
- A recent liquidity sweep below $116,000 and renewed supply from a reactivated whale wallet have stalled its bullish momentum, according to CoinDesk’s market insights bot.
- ETH: Ethereum is trading at $3,783, holding a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that technically targets the $4,300 level.
- However, neutral funding rates near multi-year resistance suggest trader caution, even as institutional accumulation continues.
- Gold: Gold fell to a near three-week low, with spot prices down 0.7% to $3,313.57.
- A recent US-EU trade deal has boosted risk sentiment and temporarily reduced the demand for safe-haven assets ahead of a busy week for corporate earnings and a key US Federal Reserve meeting.
- Nikkei 225: Asian markets opened lower, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.61% as traders adopted a wait-and-see mode to determine if more regional trade deals can be struck.
- S&P 500: The S&P 500 ended Monday’s session nearly flat, as the positive news of a US-EU trade deal failed to ignite a significant new rally in U.S. equities.
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July 29, 2025