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  • Metaplanet boosts forecasts despite Bitcoin write-down clouding annual results

    Metaplanet boosts forecasts despite Bitcoin write-down clouding annual results

    Metaplanet boosts forecasts as Bitcoin write-down clouds annual results

    • The company lifted its 2025 operating income guidance to $40 million.
    • A non-cash Bitcoin impairment of $680 million to $700 million is expected for 2025.
    • Metaplanet projected a $632 million ordinary loss and $491 million net loss for 2025.

    Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury company, has raised its revenue and operating income forecasts for 2025 and issued much higher guidance for 2026, even as it flagged a large non-cash Bitcoin write-down that is set to dominate its annual results.

    In a notice released on Monday, the company said its Bitcoin income generation business is expected to deliver stronger-than-expected performance, particularly in the final quarter of the year.

    However, Metaplanet also projected a steep ordinary loss and net loss for 2025, driven largely by accounting adjustments tied to Bitcoin’s valuation at year-end.

    The company is scheduled to file its full-year results on Feb. 16.

    Revenue upgrade driven by Bitcoin income generation

    Metaplanet said it now expects 2025 revenue of 8.905 billion Japanese yen, or around $58 million, based on its updated guidance.

    The company also raised its operating income forecast to $40 million, signalling improved performance at the operating level despite broader market volatility affecting its holdings.

    Management said Q4 2025 revenue from its Bitcoin income generation business “is expected to significantly exceed initial projections,” which led it to lift full-year revenue guidance for that segment to about $55 million.

    That compares with around $40 million previously announced, showing a sharp upgrade in the contribution from its Bitcoin-linked revenue stream.

    Large impairment set to drive headline loss

    Even with the stronger operating forecasts, Metaplanet expects to report a deep annual loss for 2025.

    The company projected an ordinary loss of $632 million and a net loss of $491 million. These figures are largely attributed to a Bitcoin impairment loss estimated at roughly $680 million to $700 million, which is expected to be recognised in its year-end reporting.

    Metaplanet explained that the impairment is a “non-cash accounting adjustment reflecting period-end price fluctuations” and said it has no direct impact on its cash flows or day-to-day operations.

    The notice linked the impairment to quarter-end mark-to-market accounting treatment and referenced Bitcoin holdings valued at year-end prices, with Bitcoin shown at $87,876 in the disclosure.

    BTC holdings and treasury metrics expand sharply

    Metaplanet also reported rapid growth in its Bitcoin treasury business during 2025, underlining how the company has built up its exposure to Bitcoin while developing income generation activities around its holdings.

    BTC holdings rose from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025, showing a significant increase in the company’s balance sheet allocation.

    It also reported BTC yield per diluted share of 568% for the year. The company uses this metric to measure how much Bitcoin backing each diluted share has increased, offering a per-share view of its Bitcoin accumulation.

    While the impairment is expected to weigh heavily on reported net results, Metaplanet’s updated figures suggest it is still expanding its treasury position and Bitcoin-linked operations at a pace.

    2026 guidance rises but earnings remain uncertain

    For 2026, Metaplanet forecast revenue of around $103 million and operating income of $73 million, representing a sharp step up from its 2025 targets.

    The company said almost all of its 2026 revenue is expected to come from the Bitcoin income generation business, reinforcing the segment’s central role in its business model.

    Metaplanet also projected selling, general and administrative expenses of about $29 million for 2026 as it ramps up operations.

    However, it said it will not provide guidance for ordinary income or net income for 2026 due to the difficulty of forecasting Bitcoin prices, signalling that future reported earnings could remain volatile even if operating performance strengthens.

    The company added that it publishes daily data on its BTC holdings, unrealised gains and losses, and related metrics, offering investors regular visibility into how price swings affect its treasury position.

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  • BTC at $143K, ETH above $4000: Citi issues bullish price forecasts as crypto market continues to struggle

    BTC at $143K, ETH above $4000: Citi issues bullish price forecasts as crypto market continues to struggle

    Citigroup issues optimistic price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum

    • Citi forecasts Bitcoin at $143K and Ethereum at $4,304 in 12 months.
    • Regulatory clarity and adoption drive institutional interest in crypto.
    • Short-term risks, including bearish patterns, options expiry, and ETF outflows, still linger.

    Citigroup has delivered one of the most upbeat outlooks from a major Wall Street institution on digital assets, forecasting strong upside for both Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next year.

    The bank’s projections come at a time when crypto markets are navigating sharp short-term volatility while longer-term adoption trends continue to strengthen.

    A bullish baseline with room to run

    In a recent research note, Citigroup set a 12-month price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin, representing an upside of roughly 62% from levels near $88,000 at the time of the forecast.

    The bank also gave Ethereum a favourable outlook, with a target price of $4,304, implying potential gains of about 46% from around $2,950.

    The bank said its forecasts reflect improving market conditions after recent drawdowns, arguing that crypto prices are now closer to measures of value tied to actual user activity.

    Citi framed its base case as a recovery scenario rather than an aggressive speculative call, noting that valuations have adjusted following the pullback from October highs.

    Beyond its baseline projections, Citi also outlined a wide range of possible outcomes.

    In a bullish scenario, the bank sees Bitcoin climbing as high as $189,000 and Ethereum reaching $5,132.

    Under a bearish case, however, Bitcoin could slide to $78,000, while Ethereum may fall toward $1,270, underscoring the asset class’s persistent volatility.

    Regulation shifts from risk to catalyst

    Citi identified regulatory developments as the central driver behind its constructive stance.

    The bank pointed to a noticeable shift by US authorities toward clearer, more tailored frameworks for digital assets, replacing years of regulatory uncertainty with defined rules.

    Several enforcement actions and lawsuits against major crypto platforms have been dismissed, a change Citi believes could encourage institutional investors to re-engage with the sector.

    The bank also highlighted President Donald Trump’s pro-digital-asset rhetoric, which has coincided with broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies within traditional finance.

    According to Citi, these policy shifts have the potential to unlock renewed capital inflows, particularly from institutions that previously stayed on the sidelines.

    The firm expects regulatory clarity to support adoption across spot markets, ETFs, and tokenised financial products over the coming year.

    Volatility clouds the near-term forecasts

    Despite the optimistic outlook, Citi acknowledged that recent market turbulence remains a significant headwind.

    Bitcoin fell to multi-month lows in November as investors reduced exposure to risk assets amid concerns over elevated technology stock valuations.

    Market sentiment has weakened further in December after Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, cut its 2025 earnings forecast.

    Strategy cited Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness, drawing heightened attention given its outsized exposure to the cryptocurrency.

    Short-term technical signals also suggest caution, seeing that Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart and remains below key moving averages and the Supertrend indicator.

    Bitcoin price analysis
    Bitcoin price analysis | Source: TradingView

    Analysts warn that the price could dip toward $87,341, or even $85,188.

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  • Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin as best-performing asset over next decade

    Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin as best-performing asset over next decade

    Bitwise projects Bitcoin to deliver 28% annual returns over the next decade.

    • Bitwise projects Bitcoin to deliver 28% annual returns over the next decade.
    • Institutions now view Bitcoin like equities and bonds for portfolio allocation.
    • Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries fuel Bitcoin’s growing long-term adoption.

    Bitwise Asset Management expects bitcoin to deliver the strongest returns of any major asset class over the next ten years, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% with gradually declining volatility.

    The forecast was shared in a new memo previewing the firm’s forthcoming Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.

    Institutional demand spurs framework

    The report, authored by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, is targeted at large platforms and professional allocators that are increasingly treating bitcoin as a “core” portfolio consideration.

    Hougan notes that the shift follows the launch and widespread approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have opened the asset class to mainstream retirement accounts and wealth platforms.

    Interest in long-term planning has grown markedly.

    Hougan said Bitwise received a dozen requests this year for long-term assumptions around bitcoin, compared with none between 2017 and 2024.

    In his view, this marks an inflection point: institutions are now evaluating bitcoin in the same way they assess equities, bonds, and other traditional assets.

    Favourable comparisons with traditional markets

    While the full report is yet to be published, the preview states that bitcoin’s projected returns, volatility profile, and correlations compare favourably with established asset classes.

    Bitwise characterises bitcoin’s correlations with other major assets as “low”, falling between −0.5 and 0.5, which many allocators value for diversification benefits.

    The asset manager’s positioning of bitcoin’s outlook draws parallels with annual capital-market forecasts issued by large Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.

    These outlooks help institutions determine long-term strategic allocations across asset classes including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.

    Hougan argues that similar guidance is now warranted for digital assets, given their growing maturity and integration into mainstream investment products.

    Growing Onchain and corporate holdings

    Since spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have quickly gained traction.

    On-chain holdings tied to these ETFs have grown to represent almost 7% of bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, with assets under management exceeding $146 billion, according to data from The Block.

    Corporate treasuries have also expanded their exposure.

    Publicly traded companies, led by MicroStrategy with a holding of 629,376 BTC, have collectively accumulated more than $80 billion worth of bitcoin.

    These acquisitions have been financed largely through capital market activities, including equity offerings and convertible debt issuance.

    Bitwise’s full Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is expected later this week.

    It will provide detailed methodology and quantitative analysis, alongside side-by-side comparisons with forecasts for traditional asset classes from leading global asset managers.

    For Bitwise, the release marks a bid to position bitcoin within the same framework used for decades to evaluate traditional investments.

    For institutions, it reflects a growing acceptance of bitcoin not as a speculative play, but as a serious allocation option with defined risk and return expectations.

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  • Bitcoin touches $58k again as analysts share bearish forecasts

    Bitcoin touches $58k again as analysts share bearish forecasts

    Bitcoin red
    • Bitcoin fell to lows of $57,700 on Coinbase as prices dipped during the US trading session.
    • Analysts predict further weakness is likely, and here’s what they are saying

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $58,486 across major crypto exchanges. However, the digital asset’s price had touched lows of $57,700 on US-based crypto exchange Coinbase amid fresh selling pressure.

    Notably, before this latest dump, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher had shared an observation: the last few weeks have seen prices rise during Asian hours and dip during US trading hours.   

    “Asia bids, America dumps,” the analyst opined. 

    Potential downside to $56k?

    CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno suggests the $56k area remains key. If the price falls below this, the analyst sees a further weakness. According to Moreno, Bitcoin’s market cycle indicator has flashed bearish again and BTC risks a deeper correction below the demand zone.

    “From a valuation perspective, if the price pierces $56K to the downside, risks of a larger correction increase,” the CryptoQuant analyst noted.

    Could Bitcoin see $40 next?

    Altcoin Sherpa is outright bearish on BTC price. The crypto analyst shared a chart that suggests the dip is likely to extend to $40k.

    The last time Bitcoin traded at these levels was in January, when prices retreated from above $46k to revisit $39k. That’s before bulls saw BTC skyrocket amid the halving sentiment and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds approval to reach the all-time high above $73k.

    BTC price is down 12% in the past month and over -21% since its all-time high in March as of 1:30 pm ET on August 30, 2024.

    What about BTC price in September?

    Market conditions and events can flip investor sentiment at any time.

    However, crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggests September has historically been tough for Bitcoin. This outlook is despite overall projection that the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates could provide tailwinds for risk assets – including cryptocurrencies.

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  • Bitcoin is rallying due to interest rate forecasts, says Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore

    Bitcoin is rallying due to interest rate forecasts, says Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore

    Key takeaways

    • Bitcoin is trading above the $28k level for the first time since June 2022.

    • Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore believes that the interest rate forecasts are responsible for the ongoing rally by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

    • Many in the market still consider the recent banking crisis as the reason why investors are entering the crypto market.

    Interest rate forecasts behind Bitcoin’s rally

    Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been performing excellently over the past few weeks. At press time, the price of Bitcoin stands at $28,411, up by 13% over the last seven days.

    Many in the crypto space attribute the ongoing crypto rally to the collapse of a few banks, including Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Silicon Valley Bank. 

    However, during an interview with CNBC, Coinjournal’s Dan Ashmore pointed out that Bitcoin’s rally has to do with the interest rate forecasts rather than the recent banking crisis.

    Regarding the ongoing rally, Ashmore said;

    “It is a reaction to the complete flip in interest rate forecasts in the wider economy. If you go back to before the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, there was an 83% probability that the interest rate would be increased by 100 basis points by the summer. Today, when we look at that, it is completely the opposite, and there is almost 100% of rate cuts.”

    He added that the crypto market is reacting to the probability that the Fed’s recent interest rate hikes are coming to an end.

    Interest rate cut is music to crypto investors

    With Bitcoin trading at $28k per coin, investors would be optimistic that prices could soar higher over the coming days and weeks.

    According to Ashmore, cryptocurrencies trade as risk-on assets, and an interest rate cut is music to the ears of crypto investors. 

    Ashmore also discussed the correlation between cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. According to the Coinjournal analyst, while many expect crypto to be an independent hedge, the assets still very much correlate with the stock market, especially tech stocks. He concluded that

    “The NASDAQ index rises, Bitcoin’s price also rises. The NASDAQ falls, and Bitcoin also falls a little more. The last couple of weeks have been interesting as Bitcoin has outperformed the NASDAQ. But it is a reflection of the fact that Bitcoin is trading in correlation with the interest rate forecasts.”

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