Tag: limited

  • Bitcoin ETF may be a ‘limited’ benefit for Coinbase stock: Barclays

    Bitcoin ETF may be a ‘limited’ benefit for Coinbase stock: Barclays

    coinbase stock price forecast barclays analyst
    • Mike Novogratz expects SEC to approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF this year.
    • Barclays analyst does not expect that to be a huge benefit for Coinbase.
    • Coinbase stock is currently down over 30% versus its year-to-date high.

    Mike Novogratz – the Chief Executive of Galaxy Investment Partners expects the Securities & Exchange Commission to approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of this year.

    Here’s what Mike Novogratz said today on CNBC

    Last week, the U.S. regulator refrained from appealing a court’s ruling that said it did not have sufficient reason to block Grayscale from converting its flagship trust to an exchange-traded fund.

    Note that Galaxy itself has filed for a Spot Bitcoin ETF in collaboration with Invesco. On CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, Novogratz said today:

    Dialogue with SEC is heading in right direction. It is no longer talking how Bitcoin works. It’s just a recognised macro asset and that’s a huge psychological shift.

    The billionaire investor expects a positive news on the ETF front to lead the market higher. Still, Barclays is not entirely convinced that it will be a material catalyst for Coinbase Global Inc.

    Barclays analyst shares his view on Coinbase stock

    Analyst Benjamin Budish told clients in a research note today on Wednesday that approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF will likely be a “limited” benefit for Coinbase.

    It is not clear how successful ETF launches would translate into a meaningful P&L benefit for Coinbase despite it being an integral service provider.

    He agreed that the Nasdaq-listed firm will serve as custodian for four BTC exchange-traded funds (at least) but said it is unlikely to earn significant custodial and prime brokerage fees.

    Barclays has an “underweight” rating on Coinbase stock with a price target of $70 that suggests another 6.0% downside from here. Earlier this week, Cathie Wood – the Founder of Ark Invest also took a positive tone on a Spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

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  • Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is still on a limited upside

    Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is still on a limited upside

    • Bitcoin lost 1% on Monday ahead of the US inflation data.

    • A crypto analyst expects the inflation data and Fed’s meeting to affect Bitcoin.

    • Bitcoin lacks a directional bias and could move in any direction.

    Bitcoin (BTC/USD) traded down more than 1% on Monday, with the cryptocurrency’s price slightly below $17,000. Bitcoin has traded at this level since the start of the month. The price is also slightly improved from $16,000 at the end of November. But should we expect this price to improve?

    The limited upside in Bitcoin perhaps underlines that investors are still cautious about buying cryptocurrencies. That means a significant number expect Bitcoin to fall further as risk-on sentiment remains. Similarly, buyers are defending the $16,000 level. But as this bull-bear scenario unfolds, a popular crypto analyst expects two macro events to crush BTC further. The analyst, Nicholas Merten, says markets are warming up for the US inflation report and the Fed’s last meeting of the year.

    The US inflation report comes on December 12th, followed by the Fed’s meeting on December 14th. Higher-than-expected inflation is likely to raise speculations of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The analyst says already 80% of the market expects the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points. If inflation comes hot, this will call for faster hikes. 

    Even if the Fed does not embark on fast rate hikes, Merten says markets will still be under pressure. The analyst says the lagging effects of previous policy actions could last longer.

    BTC on a slight upside amid weak momentum

    BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

    On the technical front, BTC trades within narrow ranges. The long-term momentum is bearish, although the cryptocurrency recovered slightly above $16,000. BTC’s next resistance lies at $19,000, while the support is at $14,000.

    Will BTC go lower or higher?

    A limited upside means that Bitcoin price could trade lower if the macro factors are not positive. Investors will monitor the inflation report and the Fed’s action for indicators of where BTC will go next.

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