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Tag: LongTerm

  • Bitcoin’s new problem: it’s not leverage, it’s long-term holders cashing out

    • Long-term holders have sold approximately 400,000 Bitcoin ($45B) in the past month.
    • This sell-off is driven by spot markets and fading conviction, not high leverage.
    • Bitcoin fell below the key $100,000 level for the first time since June.

    Bitcoin has once again slipped below the critical $100,000 mark, but the force driving this latest downturn is different and potentially more concerning for the market.

    Unlike the leverage-fueled crash in October, this sell-off is being driven by a quieter, more sustained exodus: long-term holders are cashing out, creating a $45 billion supply glut that is testing the market’s conviction.

    The original cryptocurrency fell as much as 7.4% on Tuesday, marking a more than 20% decline from its record high a month ago.

    While it has since staged a modest recovery, the nature of the selling pressure suggests a fundamental shift in market dynamics.

    From forced liquidations to fading conviction

    The key difference in this downturn is the source of the selling.

    While October’s crash was defined by a cascade of forced liquidations from overleveraged traders, the current slide is being led by a steady drumbeat of selling in the spot market.

    According to Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, long-time Bitcoin holders have offloaded approximately 400,000 Bitcoin over the past month—an exodus valued at around $45 billion.

    This sustained selling from seasoned investors is creating a market imbalance that new buyers are struggling to absorb.

    This analysis is supported by on-chain data.

    “Over 319,000 Bitcoin has been reactivated in the past month, mainly from coins held for six to twelve months — suggesting significant profit-taking since mid-July,” Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, told Bloomberg.

    The whale problem: big buyers are disappearing

    With market leverage now relatively muted, attention has turned to the large, long-time holders who are choosing to sell.

    Thielen told Bloomberg that “mega whales”—entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin—began offloading large volumes earlier this year.

    For a time, institutional players were able to absorb this supply, leading to choppy, sideways price action.

    However, since the October crash, broader demand has faded, and the accumulation by smaller whales (holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin) has dropped sharply.

    The result is a growing imbalance between sellers and buyers. “The whales are just not buying,” Thielen said.

    What comes next? A path to further declines

    This sustained selling from long-term holders could have lasting implications.

    Thielen warns that the current unwind could continue well into next spring, drawing parallels to the 2021–2022 bear market, where large holders sold over one million Bitcoin over the course of nearly a year.

    “If this is a similar pace,” he said, “we could see this situation going on for another six months.”

    While not predicting a catastrophic crash, Thielen sees room for further declines as the market consolidates.

    “I am not a believer in the cycle,” Thielen said, “but I would assume that we sort of consolidate and potentially drift even a bit lower from here. $85,000 is my maximum downside target.”

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  • Bitcoin price forecast: BTC price steadies as long-term holder selloff cools

    Bitcoin price forecast: BTC price steadies as long-term holder selloff cools

    Bitcoin price forecast

    • Long-term holder (LTH) selloffs cool, easing Bitcoin price selling pressure.
    • BTC price holds above $116,817 despite rejection near $122K.
    • CPI data may decide the next major BTC price move.

    Bitcoin price forecast shows BTC price steadying as long-term holder selloffs cool.

    Meanwhile, traders are watching on-chain flows and macro prints for signs of the next directional move.

    Long-term holders’ selloff cools

    Long-term holders have materially reduced daily sales, and consequently, the market has seen a clear shift toward holding.

    According to on-chain data, daily LTH sales slipped below $1 billion in August, after averaging above that threshold in July, and this shift has removed a notable chunk of selling pressure.

    Moreover, the reduced flow of coins to exchanges, according to Coinglass, has coincided with renewed accumulation, which in turn supports a calmer BTC price near current range levels.

    On-chain evidence points to accumulation

    Binary Coin Days Destroyed has dropped toward zero, signalling that older coins are not moving and therefore are being held longer.

    Bitcoin Binary CDD chart.

    Additionally, the Fund Flow Ratio sits at unusually low levels, around 0.057, and this suggests fewer assets are being sent to exchanges.

    Consequently, spot market net inflows — including a recent $51 million buy day after a $242 million sell-off on August 10 — reinforce that demand is returning more steadily than before.

    Triangle breakout holds, but risks remain

    Technically, Bitcoin broke upward from a triangle and remains above the $116,817 breakout threshold, which means momentum is still intact.

    However, recent attempts to clear $122,000 ended with a rejection and a “gravestone” doji candlestick, and hence, traders note that the path to a new ATH may not be smooth.

    Bitcoin price chart analysis

    Meanwhile, a CME futures gap near $117K and four-hour 200MA/EMA confluence add short-term technical magnetism that could invite retests before any sustained push higher.

    CPI and Fed policy could tilt the scales

    Macro catalysts are front and centre because upcoming US CPI figures influence rate-cut expectations and dollar strength.

    If core inflation prints higher than expected — for example, near 3.1% — then Fed-cut odds for September would likely decline, and as a result BTC price may face pressure.

    Conversely, a softer CPI near 2.9% would boost rate-cut prospects, weaken the dollar, and likely favour renewed upside for crypto and BTC price momentum.

    Two plausible paths for Bitcoin traders

    On the bullish path, continued LTH holding, steady capital inflows, and a break above recent highs could carry BTC to new discovery above $123,000 and into a $120K–$125K zone.

    On the bearish path, a confirmed distribution phase — as some Wyckoff-analysing traders warn — could open a markdown toward the $92K–$95K area, and therefore, traders must respect risk controls.

    Thus, momentum and macro prints will decide whether the market grinds higher or re-enters a corrective phase.

    Bitcoin price forecast: What traders should watch

    Watch whether BTC holds $116,817 and whether exchange inflows remain subdued, because these are immediate signs of supply drying up.

    Also, monitor short-term technical confluence at the CME gap near $117K and the reaction to CPI data, since both can trigger quick directional moves.

    While sentiment includes bullish voices like the co-founder of PayPal, Peter Thiel, who sees structural undervaluation, traders should remain nimble and factor in both upside targets and downside scenarios.

    The current Bitcoin forecast balances improved on-chain accumulation against near-term macro risk, and this equilibrium shapes the prevailing BTC price outlook.

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  • Trump’s crypto czar says lack of Bitcoin “long-term strategy” has cost taxpayers billions

    Trump’s crypto czar says lack of Bitcoin “long-term strategy” has cost taxpayers billions

    • Over the past 10 years, the federal government has sold around 195,000 Bitcoin for $366 million
    • Today, that figure would be worth over $17 billion
    • Sacks said the lack of a “long-term strategy” has cost American taxpayers

    White House artificial intelligence (AI) and crypto czar David Sacks has criticized the US federal government’s lack of “long-term strategy” with the sale of confiscated Bitcoin.

    In a post on X, Sacks wrote:

    “Over the past decade, the federal government sold approximately 195,000 Bitcoin for proceeds of $366 million. If the government had held the Bitcoin, it would be worth over $17 billion today. That’s how much it has cost American taxpayers not to have a long-term strategy.”

    Michael Saylor, Strategy’s chairman, responded: “You do not sell your Bitcoin.” Since 2020, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been actively purchasing Bitcoin. It currently holds 499,096 Bitcoin, valued at $44.72 billion.

    Crypto Summit

    The comment from Sacks comes as the White House gets ready to host its first Crypto Summit.

    So far, 20 crypto leaders have been invited to the event, which will take place on March 7. According to Sacks, they decided to keep the numbers down to have a “meaningful conversation” regarding crypto policies.

    An earlier report suggests that US President Donald Trump will unveil his plans for a Bitcoin reserve strategy during the roundtable. In an interview, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said:

    “A Bitcoin strategic reserve is something the President’s interested in. He spoke about it all during the campaign trail, and I think you’re going to see it executed on Friday.”

    Some of those attending include Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood; Arjun Sethi, CEO of Kraken; Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase; Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, founders of Gemini; and Michael Saylor, executive chair of Strategy.

    Members of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets will also be in attendance.

    “Crypto czar”

    In December, Trump announced that Sacks would be the lead policy advisor on artificial intelligence and crypto, dubbing him the “White House AI and Crypto Czar.”

    Trump wrote that Sacks will take up the role which are “two areas critical to the future of American competitiveness,” adding, among other things, that “he will work on a legal framework so the crypto industry has the clarity it has been asking for, and can thrive in the US.”

    As part of his role, Trump added that Sacks will focus on making America a “global leader” in these areas, something Trump promised during his election campaign in August.

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  • Long-term Bitcoin holders at all-time high, but price not cooperating

    Long-term Bitcoin holders at all-time high, but price not cooperating

    Key Takeaways

    • Two-thirds of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year
    • Metrics for percent of supply unmoved in 2+, 3+ and 5+ years also at all-time highs
    • The average hold period for Bitcoin on-chain is 3.8 years
    • Despite thesis that dwindling supply will boost price, this has not proved the case thus far

    The capped supply of Bitcoin has always offered an intriguing layer to analysis of the enigmatic asset. 

    Simply put, there are not many assets worldwide that offer an inelastic supply. Truthers argue that this cap will inevitably squeeze the price upwards through the simple economic theory of supply and demand. That is, assuming the demand continues to grow, of course. 

    Here, we look at this supply, and how many of the total supply of 21 million bitcoins (of which 19.3 million are currently in circulation) have not moved in quite some time.

    Percentage of Bitcoin supply unmoved in over a year at all-time high

    If one takes the 1+ year mark as a benchmark for long-term holders, that means a growing amount of Bitcoin supply is held by what constitutes long-term investors. 

    Two-thirds of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, an all-time high. That means no purchases or sales. 

    In expanding the timeframe out, we can look at what portion of this 67% has been held for even greater amounts of time. On the below chart, I have plotted the portion of supply that has been stagnant for 1+ years, 2+ years, 3+ years and 5+ years. 

    The results are interesting. Nearly half the supply – 49.3% – has not moved in over 2 years. Pushing out to 3+ years, the number is 39%. And 28.1% of the supply has not moved in 5+ years. The marks are all all-time highs.

    So, diamond hands? Well, sort of. The numbers are certainly large, but there are other variables at play. Most notably lost coins, for which it is impossible to know how many there are. Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to own over one million coins, which is circa. 5% of the supply alone. 

    Long-term holders growing despite market carnage

    Nonetheless, to see such stout numbers following the year that crypto has had is notable. The average hold time of Bitcoin on-chain right now is 3.8 years.

    This comes less than a year after the collapse of LUNA (May-22) which sparked a meltdown crisis that ultimately bankrupted hedge fund Three Arrows Capital and sent a wave of contagion across the industry. 

    Things shook further when this contagion claimed crypto lender Celsius in June. The fallen crypto lender disclosed two months before, at the Bitcoin 2022 conference, that it held 150,000 Bitcoin, which would constitute 0.8% of the supply. 

    Unfortunately for investors, court filings by Kirkland & Ellis indicate that the firm has lost roughly 62,000 Bitcoin, and right now it is unclear how many they really held, nor how many the bankrupt firm now holds. 

    Then there was the staggering collapse of FTX in November.

    But despite this,  long-term holders do continue to grow, at least if on-chain metrics are to be trusted. 

    Dwindling supply not supporting price

    But as for the thesis that a dwindling supply will push price up, it has not worked to date. Bitcoin has collapsed while these metrics have all jumped to all-time highs. 

    What happens in the long-term remains to be seen. The advocates aren’t wrong when they reference simple supply and demand. This will undoubtedly help the price, and if long-term holders continue to hold, the liquidity drying up further can only squeeze the price upward. 

    On the other hand, every sale needs a bid order, and these have not been coming in quickly enough over the last two years. As I have written about repeatedly, Bitcoin continues to follow the macro cycle, trading like an extreme-risk asset making a mockery of those who claim it is any sort of inflation hedge. Look no further than its reaction to recent inflation readings and Federal Reserve meetings on interest rate policy for evidence of this. 

    Supply drying up is a good thing. But until Bitcoin sheds its high-risk image, it will continue to trade like a levered bet on the Nasdaq. Every asset needs a bid, people, and in times of uncertainty, the market has shown that Bitcoin is the last thing that investors want to hold. 

    Time will tell if this all changes. 

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  • Shiba Inu Sets New Milestone in This Long-Term Metric: Report

    Shiba Inu Sets New Milestone in This Long-Term Metric: Report

    According to IntoTheBlock data, SHIB is now seeing its highest percentage of long-term holders, setting a new milestone in the metric. The percentage of long-term holders, or “hodlers,” has jumped to 38%, the highest so far, while that of midterm speculators continues to decline. Meanwhile, the percentage of short-term holders has held relatively steady.

    According to IntoTheBlock’s data on holder composition by time held, 38% of SHIB holders have “hodled” their tokens for more than a year, 59% have held within a year and 3% have held onto their tokens for less than a month.

    Shiba Inu “hodlers,” referring to addresses that have held SHIB for more than a year, have displayed growth since the start of 2022, from barely 1% to over 38% of holders.


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    Despite being significantly down from its peak, SHIB still draws a sizable number of investors. Shiba Inu currently has 1,230,662 holders, according to cryptocurrency data tracker WhaleStats, indicating that the number of SHIB holders has increased recently.

    Shiba Inu trading volumes jump 211%

    According to CoinMarketCap data, Shiba Inu is demonstrating a 211% rise in trading volumes as the SHIB price gains traction.

    At the time of publication, SHIB was changing hands at $0.00001047, up 5.50% in the last 24 hours. A close above $0.00001017 would make the SHIB price mark the second consecutive day in the green.

    Higher volatility, most of the time, leads to increased trading volumes for most crypto assets as traders buy and sell in large quantities to capture profits.

    Thus, the rise in SHIB volume may have been caused by investors accumulating SHIB in its current range.

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  • Dogeliens, Shiba Inu, and FTX Token are 3 Potentially Profitable Cryptocurrencies for Long-Term Holdings

    Dogeliens, Shiba Inu, and FTX Token are 3 Potentially Profitable Cryptocurrencies for Long-Term Holdings

    As the crypto market is going through a rough patch, Dogeliens, Shiba Inu and FTX tokens might help the investors gain profits they are looking for.

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  • How Does it Rank Tuesday on Long-Term Trading Metrics?

    How Does it Rank Tuesday on Long-Term Trading Metrics?


    Shiba Inu receives a strong long-term technical score of 71 from InvestorsObserver analysis. Our proprietary scoring system considers the trading patterns over the past several months to a year by analyzing the token’s consistency, volatility, and where it is relative to long-term averages to determine whether it’s a strong buy-and-hold investment opportunity.

    Currently, SHIB holds a superior long-term technical analysis score than 71% of crytpocurrencies. Long-term investors employing a buy-and-hold strategy will find the Long-Term Rank especially relevant when allocating their assets and may find additional value finding cyptos with a high short-term technical score to discover tokens that have bottomed out.

    Long-Term Technical - 71
    InvestorsObserver is giving Shiba Inu a 71 Long-Term Technical Rank. Find out what this means to you and get the rest of the rankings on Shiba Inu!

    Trading Analysis

    The current trading price of $0.000010002 for SHIB is -$0.0000018 (-15.20%) below the tokens 100-day moving average of $0.000011796. SHIB meanwhile is $0.0000028 (-152835551.42%) above its 52-week low of $0.000007197 and -$0.00007845 (-11305707.43%) under its 52-week high price of $0.000088451. Shiba Inu’s current price relative to the tokens long-term average and 52-week high and low, gives the crypto a strong long-term technical score of 71. The price movement and range of SHIB suggest that investors are neutral on the token at this time.

    Shiba Inu currently has a total market cap of $5,491,960,713.56 to go along with its average daily volume of $817,872,064.98 worth of the currency over the past seven days. SHIB’s volume is below its seven day average as of the past 24 hours, with 111,373,385.17 exchanged in that period.

    Summary

    Trading patterns over the last year for Shiba Inu leads to the token’s a strong long-term technical score of 71 as its consistency, volatility, and relation to long-term averages has given investors reason to be neutral on the token.

    Click Here to get the full Report on Shiba Inu (SHIB).

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