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Tag: Metrics

  • Chainlink price forecast as key metrics point to increased onchain activity

    Chainlink price forecast as key metrics point to increased onchain activity

    Chainlink Price Outlook

    • Chainlink price broke to highs $26 before correcting slightly.
    • LINK is surging amid a spike in onchain activity.
    • Partnerships and adoption trends remain bullish for Chainlink.

    Chainlink (LINK) broke above $26 for the first time in months on Monday, surging amid a notable spike in onchain activity.

    As LINK pares gains amid broader profit taking, analysts are saying the recent explosion of key network metrics could allow bulls to breach the supply wall at $30 as they target the all-time high of $52 seen over four years ago.

    Chainlink sees significant surge in onchain activity

    According to Santiment, Chainlink’s onchain activity has witnessed a significant spike in the past week.

    For instance, on Sunday, August 17, a total of 9,813 unique LINK addresses executed at least one transaction, while the next day saw more than 9,625 new LINK wallets.

    Per the onchain analytics provider, both metrics represent the blockchain network’s highest levels for the year.

    “Onchain activity has been even more impressive than the price,” Santiment analysts noted.

    Partnerships and LINK reserve

    Recently, Visa’s head of crypto, Cuy Sheffield, explained via Visa’s Tokenized podcast, that Chainlink is a major pull for institutional entry into crypto.

    Apart from Visa, Chainlink has partnered with ANZ, China AMC, and Fidelity International to bring cross-chain, cross-border settlements to tokenized assets across Australia and Hong Kong.

    A Mastercard partnership is also huge for LINK.

    Chainlink Data Streams is another solution seeing huge integration. Data Streams are now live for U.S. equities and exchange-traded funds such as AAPL, NVDA and CRCL.

    Chainlink also recently partnered with Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

    “Using ICE’s Consolidated Feed data as an input into Chainlink’s derived FX and precious metals rates onchain via Chainlink’s institutional-grade infrastructure is a watershed moment in the evolution of global markets,” said Fernando Vazquez, president of capital markets at Chainlink Labs. “This collaboration signals a pivotal shift towards a unified, globally accessible onchain financial system, with hundreds of trillions in assets on a clear path to tokenization.”

    Chainlink Reserve, an effort launched to support Chainlink’s traction in the DeFi and TradFi ecosystems, is also a major boost.

    As well as being geared towards establishing Chainlink as a standard solution for global crypto adoption, the program bolsters its tokenized assets growth.

    What’s next for LINK price?

    Chainlink’s price action amid the surge in network activity suggests bulls are confident in LINK.

    Chainlink price chart

    Having broken above $20 and strengthened to $26, Chainlink is showing resilience. While bears have a say on immediate LINK price action, analysts say the altcoin could be on the cusp of a significant breakout.

    While the key metrics indicate that Chainlink’s network growth is outpacing price gains, there are more bulls who are upbeat about.

    A confluence of catalysts such as network integration across decentralized and traditional finance, whale accumulation and macro conditions, is what could propel LINK toward its ATH and into price discovery mode.

    LINK traded at the all-time high above $52 in May 2021, a level bulls may target if market conditions align. Currently, the altcoin is on an uptrend since hitting lows of $16 on Aug. 6.

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  • Bitcoin price falls below $29K, no surprise given volatility and liquidity metrics

    Bitcoin price falls below $29K, no surprise given volatility and liquidity metrics

    Key Takeaways

    • Bitcoin has softened fallen from $30,000 to close to $28,000
    • Our head of research looks into the data, arguing the move should not be a surprise
    • Bitcoin’s fixed supply and lack of dividends or earnings means price is entirely demand-driven
    • Thin liquidity in the Bitcoin market exaggerates every move, with 45% of stablecoins leaving exchanges in the last 4 months
    • Correlation with stocks remains high, with high UK inflation creating pause for thought
    • Market has also peeled back slightly on forecasts for interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin has followed

    I have lost count of the number of times I’ve been asked “Why is Bitcoin going up?”, or “what is driving this Bitcoin sell-off?”. 

    For many assets, it’s clear as day as to what is driving the price action over any given trading period. Earnings forecast missed by 10%? Hello, red candle. Warren Buffett announced a mass purchase of your stock? Buckle in; we’re heading north. 

    For Bitcoin, it’s a little tougher. There are no dividends or dividend forecasts; Bitcoin pays no yield. Nor are there earnings. Additionally, the supply doesn’t waver, instead it follows a pre-determined schedule set by Satoshi Nakamoto in October 2008, governing it block by block in ten-minute intervals. 

    With the supply set in stone and out of the picture, and the absence of any periodic yield/forecasts derived from dividends or earnings, this means that the Bitcoin price is all about demand. And that is very difficult to predict. Bitcoin gonna Bitcoin, is often about the best reasoning that can be given. 

    But there are factors we can assess. One is liquidity, which I touched on in a recent deep dive as Bitcoin surged beyond $30,000 for the first time in ten months. Order book liquidity is as thin as it has been in a year, while overall capital has fled the crypto space at large. Take a look at the balance of stablecoins on exchanges:

    That is 45% of the stablecoin balance taking the exit door in the last four months, the balance as low as it has been since October 2021. 

    With Bitcoin already uber-volatile (VIX metric blows that of any “normal” asset out of the water), this amps up its propensity for violent moves even further. In simple terms, thinner liquidity means it takes less action to move the price. 

    Why is the Bitcoin price currently falling?

    So, it is often difficult to ascertain why Bitcoin is moving, as this thin liquidity and capricious demand combine to make it very sensitive. 

    But sometimes, we can make educated guesses as to what moves Bitcoin on any given day. This is one of those moments. 

    Macro conditions have long been the key for Bitcoin. Again, a little chart to show this:

    Despite some temporary optimism that Bitcoin was decoupling as investors fled a collapsing (fiat) bakning system for the safe haven that is Bitcoin, the orange coin is very much moving in tandem with high-risk assets, such as tech stocks listed on the Nasdaq.

    I wrote a deep dive at the time of the banking crisis as to why Bitcoin’s dip in correlation with stocks was just a temporary blip. Looking at the data, it appears to have come back up.

    And looking at wider financial markets in the last few days, optimism over the economic climate has pulled back. UK inflation was released yesterday, holding firm in the double digits, fuelling the expectation that the Bank of England will hike further. 

    Over in the US, Atlanta Federal Reserve president said he expected another 25 bps hike, casting another bit of doubt for the market that hikes may not be done quite yet. 

    Not to mention a rally can’t go on forever. Bitcoin has been on a tear this year, up 74% year-to-date. It’s an asset which has always oscillated, so it’s not a surprise that it is finally showing a bit of weakness. And a fall from $30,000 to $28,000 is merely a drop in the ocean compared to what it is capable of. 

    A true Bitcoin red candle cannot be ruled out here, given the volatility and thin liquidity, just like it could suddenly surge further north. As financial markets adjust to new data all the time, like the all-important inflation readings and FOMC minutes, Bitcoin will continue to move like a levered bet on tech stocks. 

    As for what direction it will move in, that is anyone’s guess. I don’t have a crystal ball, and I won’t make any predictions just for the sake of it, because I simply don’t know. Not many people do right now, with the world in a precarious state economically. Inflation is still high, yet interest rates are apparently coming to the end of the tightening cycle. 

    Soft landing, hard landing, something in between? The future will tell. But whatever happens, the volatility of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency is very real, and abrupt price reversals and large swings won’t stop anytime soon. Bitcoin gonna Bitcoin. 

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  • Bitcoin on-chain metrics are now bullish: Bitfinex

    Bitcoin on-chain metrics are now bullish: Bitfinex

    • Bitfinex market report points to bullish metrics for BTC
    • Supply in Profit, Bitcoin Realised HODL (RHODL) Multiple and Reserve Risk ratio are all flashing green.
    • Bitcoin has traded to above $23k again after slipping on Monday following broader market reaction to economic news.

    Bitcoin is trading around $23,360 at the time of writing, about 2.4% up in the past 24 hours as cryptocurrencies flash green on Tuesday amid an improving market sentiment.

    For the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap, it appears on-chain metrics are ticking further north to suggest a strengthening bullish case.

    Supply in Profit up 20%, points to buy signal

    According to analysts at Bitfinex, one of Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics suggesting fresh upside momentum is likely the Supply in Profit indicator. Data shows bulls look to have successfully absorbed selling pressure as short-term and some long-term HODLers turn profitable.

    An observation of the metric on the 90-day time frame highlights a 20% jump for the “supply in profit” chart in January 2023, the analysts wrote in the report released on Monday.

    “This implies that larger and longer-term investors currently hold profitable on-paper spot positions. This is healthy for the latter half of a bear market as a sustained 30-day uptrend after an extensive downtrend on this indicator has historically provided a good buy signal for the following two years,” the Bitfinex team noted.

    As far as markets are concerned, the above scenario doesn’t mean that the crypto market is set for an “up-only” move. However, the outlook does suggest bulls have an upper hand in the spot markets, a scenario that’s historically reflective of “late bear and early bull markets.”

    The Bitcoin Realised HODL (RHODL) Multiple, historically also bullish, has also been in an uptrend. According to data, the RHODL Multiple has remained positive over a 90-day window, to also suggest profitability for HODLers.

    Key metrics suggest a 10x jump for BTC price

    Apart from the 90-day EMA, other technical indicators flipping green include the net adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio. Per on-chain data, the indicator is currently above one, which suggests that net sales across the Bitcoin market are profitable.

    Also, the Realised Profit to Losses (RPLR) ratio is above zero, which also confirms the profitable selling observed in past few weeks. The metric is currently moving towards 0.2, a reading comparable to the RPLR measure when Bitcoin price fell to lows of $3,600 in 2019. After the RPLR hit 0.2, BTC price flipped green and rallied 19x, hitting its all-time high in November 2021.

    Bitcoin Realized Profit Loss Ratio chart by Glassnode

    With the metric approaching this ratio when Bitcoin fell to lows of $16,000, the possibility of another 10x rally could see BTC target highs of $160,000 over the next two-three years.

    Bitcoin’s reserve risk ratio suggests HODLer conviction is high

    Looking at a longer time frame, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are also pointing to a bullish outlook. One odf these technical indicators is the Reserve Risk ratio.

    According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin’s reserve risk ratio has fallen to its all-time low. This puts the metric lower than when markets bottomed in 2019 or 2020, Bitfinex analysts pointed out.

    As the ratio is a cyclical oscillator that highlights price vs. HODLer conviction, with incentive to sell factored against opportunity cost, a very low ratio translates to a higher conviction among investors.

    A positive outlook for Bitcoin is also seen in the Market Value Realised Value (MVRV) ratio, which has recovered and has often coincided with historically bullish returns.

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  • This analyst relies on on-chain metrics to support a Bitcoin price (BTC/USD) rally

    This analyst relies on on-chain metrics to support a Bitcoin price (BTC/USD) rally

    • Bitcoin rose to $17,000 on Monday.

    • InvestAnswers thinks BTC is about to become bullish based on realised value.

    • The token faces resistance at $19,000 and 50-day MA.

    Bitcoin price (BTC/USD) was up marginally on Monday as most cryptocurrencies made slight recoveries. BTC was back to $17,000 even as data by crypto derivatives exchange Deribit showed that sentiment had shifted in favour of the cryptocurrency. But as this happens, a popular crypto analyst is projecting a rally.

    InvestAnswers, a popular crypto analyst, says that on-chain signals suggest BTC is overdue for a rally. The pseudonymous analyst examines Bitcoin’s realised price or RP metrics in making the argument. Normally, RP posts the value of all BTC at the price the tokens were bought and then divides it by the number in circulation. InvestAnswers says that BTC never stays below the RP for long. 

    The analyst says BTC has been under RP for 170 days. In 2020, BTC stayed below the RP for 8 days, while in 2018, it was 115 days. In 2015, it stayed a little longer at 240 days and only 110 days in 2011. According to the analyst, the RP of BTC lies at $21,000. Using the analogy, he says that the Bitcoin price is about to soar.

    Besides the RP, InvestAnswers says that the rising weakness in the US dollar index suggests a likely rally. The index is inversely correlated to the risk-on assets, meaning that if it goes lower, cryptocurrencies go the other way.

    BTC price analysis and outlook amid slight recoveries

    BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

    BTC trades above the 20-day moving average. Bulls have been winning the war at $16,000, although the bears are still relentless. The RSI remains below the midpoint, and the bullish momentum looks somewhat weak but improving.

    Bulls will have the next test at the 50-day MA and the $19,000 resistance.

    Should you buy BTC?

    BTC is still largely bearish. However, all indications are buyers looking for the next opportune moment. In the meantime, BTC’s eyes $19,000 and a recovery past the level could usher in more upsides.

    Where to buy BTC

    eToro

    eToro offers a wide range of cryptos, such as Bitcoin, XRP and others, alongside crypto/fiat and crypto/crypto pairs. eToro users can connect with, learn from, and copy or get copied by other users.


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    Bitstamp is a leading cryptocurrency exchange which offers trading in fiat currencies or popular cryptocurrencies.

    Bitstamp is a fully regulated company which offers users an intuitive interface, a high degree of security for your digital assets, excellent customer support and multiple withdrawal methods.


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  • How Does it Rank Tuesday on Long-Term Trading Metrics?

    How Does it Rank Tuesday on Long-Term Trading Metrics?


    Shiba Inu receives a strong long-term technical score of 71 from InvestorsObserver analysis. Our proprietary scoring system considers the trading patterns over the past several months to a year by analyzing the token’s consistency, volatility, and where it is relative to long-term averages to determine whether it’s a strong buy-and-hold investment opportunity.

    Currently, SHIB holds a superior long-term technical analysis score than 71% of crytpocurrencies. Long-term investors employing a buy-and-hold strategy will find the Long-Term Rank especially relevant when allocating their assets and may find additional value finding cyptos with a high short-term technical score to discover tokens that have bottomed out.

    Long-Term Technical - 71
    InvestorsObserver is giving Shiba Inu a 71 Long-Term Technical Rank. Find out what this means to you and get the rest of the rankings on Shiba Inu!

    Trading Analysis

    The current trading price of $0.000010002 for SHIB is -$0.0000018 (-15.20%) below the tokens 100-day moving average of $0.000011796. SHIB meanwhile is $0.0000028 (-152835551.42%) above its 52-week low of $0.000007197 and -$0.00007845 (-11305707.43%) under its 52-week high price of $0.000088451. Shiba Inu’s current price relative to the tokens long-term average and 52-week high and low, gives the crypto a strong long-term technical score of 71. The price movement and range of SHIB suggest that investors are neutral on the token at this time.

    Shiba Inu currently has a total market cap of $5,491,960,713.56 to go along with its average daily volume of $817,872,064.98 worth of the currency over the past seven days. SHIB’s volume is below its seven day average as of the past 24 hours, with 111,373,385.17 exchanged in that period.

    Summary

    Trading patterns over the last year for Shiba Inu leads to the token’s a strong long-term technical score of 71 as its consistency, volatility, and relation to long-term averages has given investors reason to be neutral on the token.

    Click Here to get the full Report on Shiba Inu (SHIB).

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