Tag: mideast

  • Bitcoin rallies to $106K on Mideast ceasefire news; Circle shares continue explosive climb

    Bitcoin rallies to $106K on Mideast ceasefire news; Circle shares continue explosive climb

    Bitcoin rallies to $106K on Mideast ceasefire news; Circle shares continue explosive climb

    • Bitcoin surged past $106K late Monday after Trump announced a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE” between Iran and Israel.
    • The rally marked a sharp reversal from a plunge to $98,500 just 24 hours prior; oil prices tumbled to $65.
    • Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) stock hit a record high near $299, up 750% since its IPO this month.

    A tumultuous 72 hours of price action in the cryptocurrency market culminated in a sharp rally late Monday, as Bitcoin surged past the $106,000 mark.

    The catalyst for this dramatic move was an announcement from US President Donald Trump, who took to his Truth Social platform to proclaim a “complete and total” ceasefire between Iran and Israel, offering a glimmer of de-escalation in the volatile Middle East conflict.

    The market’s reaction to President Trump’s announcement was immediate and forceful. “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now),” Trump wrote, sending a wave of relief through global markets.

    Bitcoin, which had already been showing signs of a rebound in afternoon trading, jumped nearly another 3% on the news, decisively topping $106,000.

    This represented a remarkable turnaround from just over 24 hours prior, when the leading cryptocurrency had plunged to as low as $98,500 amidst fears of a widening war.

    At the time of this report, Bitcoin’s price had slightly pulled back from its peak to around $105,300, but held onto the majority of its gains.

    The positive sentiment spilled over into traditional markets as well. US stock index futures posted gains of approximately 0.5% across the board.

    The price of crude oil, which had soared to over $75 a barrel earlier in the day on supply disruption fears, tumbled further to just $65 per barrel following the ceasefire news.

    The move in some major altcoins was even more pronounced, with Ether (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) among those sporting impressive gains of 8%-10%.

    While there was some initial confusion in the minutes following the president’s announcement regarding the validity of the ceasefire agreement, Reuters later reported that a senior Iranian official had confirmed Tehran’s agreement to a proposed ceasefire with Israel, lending credence to the market’s optimistic reaction.

    Circle’s meteoric rise

    In a parallel and equally dramatic market story, shares of stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) continued their explosive rally on Monday, soaring to a fresh record high.

    The surge has brought the company’s market capitalization tantalizingly close to that of its flagship token, USDC, and puts it within striking distance of crypto exchange giant Coinbase (COIN).

    Shares of Circle were up another 22% at one point on Monday morning, reaching a record high just shy of $299 before relinquishing some of those gains.

    The stock ultimately closed at around $263, up a solid 9% for the session.

    Since its Initial Public Offering (IPO) earlier this month, which priced at $31 per share, Circle’s stock has appreciated by a staggering 750%.

    At its peak on Monday, Circle’s market capitalization reached roughly $60 billion.

    This figure is nearly on par with the $61.3 billion supply of its USDC stablecoin, the second-largest dollar-pegged token in circulation.

    This valuation also brings the firm remarkably close to that of crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), which currently has a market capitalization of about $78 billion.

    Circle’s phenomenal surge this month is a clear testament to the soaring investor appetite for the fast-growing stablecoin market, a sector of the crypto industry with very few publicly-traded “pure play” investment options.

    USDC is widely used across cryptocurrency exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and is gaining increasing popularity for payments and cross-border transactions.

    A key catalyst that has helped fuel Circle’s rally was the US Senate’s passage of the so-called GENIUS Act last week.

    This legislation, which advances a regulatory framework for the stablecoin asset class, has boosted investor confidence in the long-term viability and growth potential of the sector, which some analysts believe could reach a multi-trillion dollar valuation in the coming years.

    Despite the bullish momentum, some analysts are beginning to warn that Circle’s rally may be running ahead of its underlying fundamentals.

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  • Bitcoin falls to $103K, options skew hits 3-month low as mideast tensions drive oil prices higher

    Bitcoin falls to $103K, options skew hits 3-month low as mideast tensions drive oil prices higher

    Bitcoin falls to $103K, options skew hits 3-month low as mideast tensions drive oil prices higher

    A sharp escalation in Middle East tensions sent shockwaves through global financial markets in the early Asian trading hours, triggering a significant spike in oil prices and prompting a flight to safety.

    Bitcoin (BTC) was not immune to the turmoil, experiencing a notable price drop as traders scrambled for downside protection, evidenced by a dramatic crash in short-term options skew.

    The seven-day skew for Bitcoin options, a key metric that measures the relative cost of bullish calls versus bearish puts listed on Deribit, plummeted to -3.84%.

    This marked its lowest point since April 16, according to data from Amberdata.

    In practical terms, this means put options, which offer traders protection against price declines, became the most expensive relative to call options in three months.

    The surge in demand for these protective puts also dragged the 30-day and 60-day skews into negative territory, signaling a broader shift towards caution among market participants.

    Traders typically purchase put options either to hedge existing long positions in the spot or futures markets or to directly profit from an anticipated fall in prices.

    The clear preference for puts indicates a growing unease about Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory amidst the heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

    Bitcoin’s price reflected this nervousness, falling to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $103,150, extending its 24-hour losses to 4.59%, according to CoinDesk data.

    This decline represented a significant retreat from earlier in the week when prices had briefly topped the $110,000 mark.

    Market bulls are now likely hoping that the 50-day SMA will provide a crucial support level, as a sustained break below it could attract further selling pressure, a pattern observed when this support level failed back in February.

    Oil surges as geopolitical cauldron boils over

    The catalyst for this market turbulence was a dramatic escalation in the Middle East.

    The per-barrel price of WTI crude oil surged by over 6% to $74.30, reaching its highest level since February 3 and extending its weekly gain to an impressive 13%, according to data from TradingView.

    This sharp upward movement in oil prices reportedly followed news of Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which supposedly drew retaliatory missile action from Tehran, though details remained fluid.

    Inflationary shadows and Fed policy under scrutiny

    Sudden and significant spikes in oil prices tend to have a global inflationary impact, and this latest surge is no exception.

    Concerns are now mounting that this could inject fresh inflationary pressures into economies worldwide, at a time when President Donald Trump’s ongoing trade war already threatens to disrupt economic stability and fuel inflation, particularly in net-importer countries.

    This confluence of factors could significantly dent market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

    If inflation re-accelerates, the Fed may be less inclined to ease monetary policy, potentially adding to downside volatility in both stocks and cryptocurrencies.

    As of writing, futures tied to the S&P 500 were trading 1.5% lower on the day, reflecting the broader risk-off sentiment.

    Traditional markets reel from geopolitical shock

    The reaction in traditional markets was swift and pronounced. US stock index futures were down approximately 1.5% across the board following the news from the Middle East.

    European market futures mirrored this decline, also trading down by roughly the same margin.

    In a classic flight to safety, bond prices moved higher as investors sought refuge from the volatility.

    Gold, another traditional safe-haven asset, also saw increased demand, adding about 0.75% in the past hour to trade at $3,428 per ounce.

    Crude oil, as previously noted, had soared by an even more dramatic 9% to $74 per barrel in the immediate aftermath of the reports.

    The 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 4.32%, indicating increased demand for US government debt.

    Currency markets also reflected the shifting risk landscape, with the US dollar gaining against the euro and the British pound, but losing ground against traditional safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

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