Tag: missing

  • Dan Dolev sees Coinbase missing Q3 revenue estimates by 10%

    Dan Dolev sees Coinbase missing Q3 revenue estimates by 10%

    dan dolev coinbase missing q3 revenue
    • Mizuho analyst forecasts up to $652 million in revenue for Coinbase in Q3.
    • Dan Dolev continues to see sharp downside in the crypto stock to $27.
    • Coinbase shares are already down roughly 35% versus their YTD high.

    Mizuho lowered its quarterly revenue estimate for Coinbase Global Inc on Wednesday. Its shares are down 1.0% at writing.

    Dan Dolev shares his view on Coinbase

    Dan Dolev now expects the crypto exchange to report revenue about 7.0% below his previous forecast for the third quarter. On Wednesday, he said in a research note to clients:

    We expect dwindling volumes combined with an expected drought in retail trading to meaningfully weigh on 3Q revenue.

    Note that Bitcoin trading volatility tanked to the level last seen over four years ago in August.

    The Mizuho analyst is, therefore, convinced that the Nasdaq-listed firm will come in about 10% shy of consensus estimate for revenue in its Q3. Coinbase shares are currently down 35% versus their year-to-date high.

    Coinbase shares have downside to $27

    Dan Dolev now forecasts Coinbase to report revenue in the range of $609 million to $652 million in its third financial quarter.

    That’s driven from a sharp decline in the platform’s average daily trading volume that stood at about $1.0 billion in the second quarter but had crashed to $665 million in September.

    The Mizuho analyst, therefore, maintained his “underweight” rating on Coinbase shares this morning. His $27 price target suggests a more than 60% downside from here.

    His bearish call on the stock arrives shortly after the crypto exchange said it had secured AML or Anti-Money Laundering registration with the Bank of Spain (find out more). Coinbase is the globally the largest holder of Bitcoin as per Arkham.

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  • Arguing that governments can’t shut down Bitcoin is missing the point

    Arguing that governments can’t shut down Bitcoin is missing the point

    Key Takeaways

    • Chair of the US Banking Committee has suggested a ban on all cryptocurrencies
    • Many declare that crypto is immune to government shutdowns, but this is only true directly
    • By attacking the ecosystem and the ability to access it, crypto can be curtailed significantly by lawmakers

     

    Bitcoin cannot be shut down, so the saying goes. But this misses the point.

    Firstly, let me be clear and affirm that this mantra is true, technically at least. Bitcoin exists on the Internet and hence it is immune to being shut down. Unless, of course, you somehow shut down the Internet. But for all intents and purposes, Bitcoin is decentralised and exists in the online world, a feat of technology that makes it resilient to being restrained.

    Bitcoin can’t be shut down directly, but indirectly is a different story

    But while a direct shutdown of the blockchain is impossible, governments can, at least theoretically, dent Bitcoin heavily and curtail its adoption by the masses. It might not qualify as technically shutting it down, and I am not commenting on the likelihood that this happens, but there is little doubt that if a concerted enough effort is made, an assault by lawmakers on Bitcoin could be devastating.

    We need only look at the prevalence of centralised entities in the space. While Bitcoin itself is decentralised, in order for the masses to access it, the vast majority go via centralised companies such as Binance or other exchanges. And what happens if governments go after these companies?

    These companies will be forced to abide by the laws. Sure, decentralised exchanges (DEXs) will remain, and like Bitcoin itself, are resilient to being directly shut down. But would you expect Bitcoin to achieve mainstream success and continue to grow into a legitimate financial asset if DEXs were the only option?

    Not only would institutions be reluctant to pursue this route, but they could also just be banned from holding it.

    US Banking Committee Chair suggest banning cryptocurrencies

    I write this article now in the wake of the story which emerged regarding the US Banking Committee Chair, Sherrod Brown, suggesting a ban on cryptocurrencies.

    Brown said:

    “I’ve already gone to the Treasury and the Secretary and asked for a government-wide assessment through all the various regulatory agencies. … The SEC has been particularly aggressive, and we need to move forward that way and legislatively if it comes to that.”

    It has been scoffed at in some quarters, but it’s worth paying attention to. The US is the financial capital of the world. Were the SEC to come out and ban it, this would have a seismic impact.

    Think of the chunk of the market that could be forbidden from holding Bitcoin – institutions, pension funds, public companies, etc. Or all the infrastructure that would be torn down, such as exchanges.

    On the flip side, it does remain a remote possibility. And getting back to my point earlier about how people overlook the potential for governments to shut Bitcoin down, Brown did acknowledge that “We want them to do what they need to do at the same time, maybe banning it, although banning it is very difficult because it would go offshore, and who knows how that would work.”

    Final Thoughts

    I’m not predicting any sort of demise for Bitcoin or crypto off the back of this. I just think that too many overlook how damaging governments can be towards the world’s biggest cryptocurrency. 

    Sure, the beauty of the blockchain is that it cannot be shut down directly. But indirectly? That is a different story. Governments carry too much power to be written off as “irrelevant” when it comes to Bitcoin.

    So far, there is nothing to think that countries such as the US will make such drastic moves to ban crypto. But after a torrid 2022 that has seen scandal after scandal rock the space, comments such as Sherrod Brown’s are not surprising. 

    In the remote possibility that these words were ever put into action, it would be foolish for investors to write it off as a benign development for crypto.

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