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  • Bitcoin just hit a critical point: analysts split between $85K crash and $250K surge

    Bitcoin just hit a critical point: analysts split between $85K crash and $250K surge

    Bitcoin price just hit a critical point

    • Bitcoin trades near $92K amid mixed signals from ETFs and tech markets.
    • Hoskinson and Saylor predict a strong BTC rebound despite recent losses.
    • ETF outflows and macro risks could, however, push BTC toward $85K support.

    While Bitcoin price has recovered from the low of $88,540 hit on November 19, the question is whether it will hit a higher high than the $93,403 registered on November 18.

    Some analysts believe BTC is preparing for a deeper slide, while others insist a powerful rebound is already forming beneath the surface.

    At press time, BTC price was around $92,237 and already showing signs of exhaustion, which would spell doom since it formed a lower low on November 19, which is a bearish sign.

    Bullish calls grow despite the slide

    At $92,237, Bitcoin (BTC) is reeling from a bruising stretch that has erased more than $33,000 from its value in under two months.

    Notably, today’s uptick follows a pause in ETF outflows and a rebound in tech stocks, driven by Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected earnings.

    While the market remains on edge as macro uncertainty and shifting liquidity conditions continue to pressure risk assets, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson remains one of the strongest voices calling for a major rebound.

    During CNBC’s Squawk Box show on Tuesday, Hoskinson argued that Bitcoin’s recent losses reflect broader macro distortions, including tariff tensions, recession risks, and uneven regulatory signals.

    Hoskinson believes these forces will ease in the coming months.

    He expects BTC to recover sharply and potentially hit $250,000 within the next year, projecting that institutional adoption and large-scale tokenisation will redefine market cycles.

    Michael Saylor shares a similar level of confidence, viewing the current downturn as typical of Bitcoin’s long-term behaviour.

    The MicroStrategy executive says the company is built to withstand extreme drawdowns, calling his position “indestructible” in a recent interview with Fox Business.

    Notably, Saylor has continued to buy BTC even as volatility increases, reinforcing his view that deep corrections are part of the broader path toward higher valuations.

    ETF activity has also become a pivotal factor.

    The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF posted a record $523 million daily loss on November 18 following a streak of outflows across the spot Bitcoin ETF landscape.

    Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow
    Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow | Source: Coinglass

    The Bitcoin ETFs outflow seems to have stabilised, with IBIT seeing $60M worth of inflows on November 19.

    Analysts warn that sustained inflows will be essential if Bitcoin hopes to avoid a retest of this week’s lows.

    Bearish risks still loom

    Not all signals point upward. Some traders see a real chance BTC could break below key support levels near $90,000.

    If the market fails to hold this support, prediction platforms indicate rising expectations of a drop toward $87,000.

    ETF outflows totalling more than $3 billion this month highlight lingering caution, and many retail participants remain hesitant after weeks of drawdowns.

    Macro conditions remain complicated.

    Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have faded, while recession concerns are resurfacing due to weak jobs data and ongoing trade friction.

    These pressures have limited upside momentum even as Nvidia’s tech rally briefly boosted risk appetite.

    Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to trade like a high-beta asset tied closely to broader market sentiment, and the next few days may determine whether buyers regain control or whether sellers will test new lows.

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  • Chainlink price forecast as key metrics point to increased onchain activity

    Chainlink price forecast as key metrics point to increased onchain activity

    Chainlink Price Outlook

    • Chainlink price broke to highs $26 before correcting slightly.
    • LINK is surging amid a spike in onchain activity.
    • Partnerships and adoption trends remain bullish for Chainlink.

    Chainlink (LINK) broke above $26 for the first time in months on Monday, surging amid a notable spike in onchain activity.

    As LINK pares gains amid broader profit taking, analysts are saying the recent explosion of key network metrics could allow bulls to breach the supply wall at $30 as they target the all-time high of $52 seen over four years ago.

    Chainlink sees significant surge in onchain activity

    According to Santiment, Chainlink’s onchain activity has witnessed a significant spike in the past week.

    For instance, on Sunday, August 17, a total of 9,813 unique LINK addresses executed at least one transaction, while the next day saw more than 9,625 new LINK wallets.

    Per the onchain analytics provider, both metrics represent the blockchain network’s highest levels for the year.

    “Onchain activity has been even more impressive than the price,” Santiment analysts noted.

    Partnerships and LINK reserve

    Recently, Visa’s head of crypto, Cuy Sheffield, explained via Visa’s Tokenized podcast, that Chainlink is a major pull for institutional entry into crypto.

    Apart from Visa, Chainlink has partnered with ANZ, China AMC, and Fidelity International to bring cross-chain, cross-border settlements to tokenized assets across Australia and Hong Kong.

    A Mastercard partnership is also huge for LINK.

    Chainlink Data Streams is another solution seeing huge integration. Data Streams are now live for U.S. equities and exchange-traded funds such as AAPL, NVDA and CRCL.

    Chainlink also recently partnered with Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

    “Using ICE’s Consolidated Feed data as an input into Chainlink’s derived FX and precious metals rates onchain via Chainlink’s institutional-grade infrastructure is a watershed moment in the evolution of global markets,” said Fernando Vazquez, president of capital markets at Chainlink Labs. “This collaboration signals a pivotal shift towards a unified, globally accessible onchain financial system, with hundreds of trillions in assets on a clear path to tokenization.”

    Chainlink Reserve, an effort launched to support Chainlink’s traction in the DeFi and TradFi ecosystems, is also a major boost.

    As well as being geared towards establishing Chainlink as a standard solution for global crypto adoption, the program bolsters its tokenized assets growth.

    What’s next for LINK price?

    Chainlink’s price action amid the surge in network activity suggests bulls are confident in LINK.

    Chainlink price chart

    Having broken above $20 and strengthened to $26, Chainlink is showing resilience. While bears have a say on immediate LINK price action, analysts say the altcoin could be on the cusp of a significant breakout.

    While the key metrics indicate that Chainlink’s network growth is outpacing price gains, there are more bulls who are upbeat about.

    A confluence of catalysts such as network integration across decentralized and traditional finance, whale accumulation and macro conditions, is what could propel LINK toward its ATH and into price discovery mode.

    LINK traded at the all-time high above $52 in May 2021, a level bulls may target if market conditions align. Currently, the altcoin is on an uptrend since hitting lows of $16 on Aug. 6.

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  • BTC holds $106K; analysts point to institutional integration, on-chain innovation

    BTC holds $106K; analysts point to institutional integration, on-chain innovation

    BTC holds $106K; analysts point to institutional integration, on-chain innovation

    • Bitcoin (BTC) regained its footing, trading around $106K after a tense weekend involving a US strike on Iran.
    • Bitcoin’s resilience is attributed to its growing integration into the broader macro-financial system via institutional infrastructure.
    • Bitcoin ETFs saw massive inflows ($1.1B last week, $350M one day), cited as a major bullish tailwind.

    Bitcoin (BTC) has regained its footing, hovering around the $106,000 mark as the Asian trading week gets underway on Wednesday.

    This resilient performance comes after a tense weekend that saw the US bomb an Iranian nuclear site, with Bitcoin now pushing past levels seen earlier this month when Israel first bombed Iran.

    This stability, in the face of significant geopolitical turmoil, is increasingly being attributed to a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s market structure and a renewed wave of innovation flocking to its blockchain.

    Part of the reason why the crypto market has recovered so swiftly alongside traditional markets is the growing correlation between the two.

    The days of Bitcoin operating in a vacuum appear to be over. “Bitcoin’s sensitivity to traditional asset classes and macroeconomic indicators has evolved markedly over the past few market cycles, reflecting its growing integration into the broader macro-financial system,” reads a recent report from Glassnode and Avenir Group.

    This integration has been facilitated by the development of a robust institutional infrastructure. “Institutional infrastructure has reshaped how capital engages with bitcoin,” the report continues.

    As a result, its market behavior is increasingly governed by structural liquidity, long-horizon positioning, and regulated access points.

    This institutional backbone was clearly visible again this week. Semir Gabeljic, director of capital formation and investment strategy at Pythagoras Investments, highlighted the significant impact of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), citing them as a major tailwind.

    “The huge recent capital inflows in Bitcoin ETFs of $1.1 billion last week and even $350 million today alone” are driving the positive trend, Gabeljic noted.

    Spencer Yang, a Core Contributor to Fractal Bitcoin, added another perspective on Bitcoin’s ability to shake off the war jitters so quickly.

    He argued that, fundamentally, nothing has changed about the asset class itself as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.

    The core metrics that long-term investors look to for Bitcoin remain intact. Furthermore, other bullish on-chain signals are potentially on the way.

    “We’re seeing continued interest in protocols like BRC-20, especially with the recent upgrade, as well as Runes and Alkanes, which have been getting a lot of attention,” Yang added.

    So overall, on‑chain activity across the board is increasing thanks to these types of assets.

    The key takeaway seems to be that as Bitcoin’s market becomes increasingly defined by institutional demand and macroeconomic liquidity cycles, its price action is becoming less about knee-jerk reactions to headlines and more about long-term capital commitment.

    It is this structural shift that appears to be anchoring Bitcoin firmly above the $100,000 level, despite the surrounding noise.

    Tim Draper’s thesis

    Adding to this long-term bullish outlook, legendary venture capitalist Tim Draper has argued that the Bitcoin blockchain is becoming the new epicenter for crypto innovation.

    In a recent post on the social media platform X, Draper drew a compelling parallel, suggesting that Bitcoin is now absorbing ideas once exclusive to altcoins, much in the same way that Microsoft once consolidated the software revolution under its dominant operating system empire.

    Draper pointed to Bitcoin’s rising dominance – a metric equivalent to its “market share” in the crypto world – as evidence.

    This figure has risen to over 60%, up from 40% after the 2017 boom-bust cycle and 50% following the 2021 peak, signaling that Bitcoin is reasserting its control over the broader crypto ecosystem.

    Much like how Microsoft integrated or cloned early software success stories like Lotus 1-2-3, WordPerfect, and PowerPoint to create its powerful software suite, Draper says Bitcoin is now systematically incorporating innovations that were once the exclusive domain of altcoins.

    These include functionalities like smart contracts, decentralized finance (DeFi), ordinals (a form of on-chain digital artifacts), and low-cost layer 2 scaling solutions.

    “All the successful innovations on other platforms are now being ported to Bitcoin,” Draper wrote, describing it as an “acceleration” that mirrors the consolidation phases seen in Big Tech.

    He argued that developers are increasingly gravitating toward Bitcoin because it is the most secure and valuable blockchain.

    Draper, who runs a Bitcoin-focused accelerator with Boost VC, stated that the next generation of entrepreneurs is building on Bitcoin not just for ideological reasons, but because the infrastructure and surrounding ecosystem are now mature and ready for this new wave of development.

    “Smart entrepreneurs are always building on the platform with the strongest gravitational pull,” he wrote.

    “That platform is Bitcoin.”
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  • Why is Ethereum falling against Bitcoin? Maxis loudly celebrate but miss the point

    Why is Ethereum falling against Bitcoin? Maxis loudly celebrate but miss the point

    Key Takeaways

    • Ethereum has fallen against Bitcoin thus far this year
    • This is unusual as the market has risen, and altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin in bull markets
    • Nonetheless, Bitcoin maxis represent everything that is and about the space, writes our Analyst Dan Ashmore
    • Their celebrations also forget the fact that Ethereum has still crushed Bitcoin over the past five years
    • Despite Ethereum’s outperformance, Ashmore explains why Bitcoin remains the only crypto asset for him, despite his disdain of Bitcoin maximalism

    I am a Bitcoin investor. But there are few things more toxic in the cryptocurrency space than Bitcoiners persecuting others for investing in different coins. 

    Of course, the people who do this are only a tiny minority. Colloquially known as Bitcoin maximalists, this group are just so damn loud and aggressive that it makes it seem as if they are plenty in number. They’re not.

    Do I personally invest in cryptos beyond Bitcoin? Not really, beyond a bit of fun on the side. I’m a bit of a boomer investor and hence altcoins have never made it into my long-term portfolio. But that doesn’t mean I have to spend my nights berating people online for whatever they do with their money. It’s really strange behaviour. 

    Ethereum the biggest target

    Ethereum, being the second biggest cryptocurrency on the planet, is naturally the biggest target of these maxis, who typically travel in packs through the virtual world, but are rarely seen outside of the Internet in broad daylight.  

    And Ethereum is the reason I am crafting this piece today because Twitter, which is the always-positive kingdom in which these maxis are most commonly found, is alive with celebrations that Bitcoin is accelerating against Ethereum, with the latter falling sharply in the last few days and close to its lows this year against Bitcoin. 

    A couple of things on this. And again, I am a Bitcoin investor so I don’t really have any reason to be biased here (or if anything, I do in the opposite direction). 

    But sharing the 2023 chart is guilty of a little bit of cherry-picking. It is no secret that over the last few years, throughout the bull market surge of the pandemic years in 2020 and 2021, Ethereum has absolutely crushed Bitcoin. 

    Since April 2020, it is up 2.53X against Bitcoin, to be precise. 

    Ethereum, like most altcoins, tends to outperform Bitcoin in bull markets and underperform in bear markets. This is no secret and makes intuitive sense – it is further out on the risk spectrum and essentially trades like a levered bet on Bitcoin. Nothing mind-blowing in that. 

    And hence it makes sense that Bitcoin lagged Ethereum during the bull market of 2020 and 2021. But look at the below chart since Bitcoin’s all-time high in November 2021 (we can use this as the marker for the top in the crypto market): it’s been quite steady, down only 3.5%, a near-negligible number in the volatile world of cryptoland. 

    The fall of ETH vs BTC in 2023 also doesn’t really look overly dramatic with a bit of zooming out and a wider y-axis. It’s all about perspective, right? 

    So ETH crushed BTC in the last bull market, and has more or less tracked it in the bear market. By all accounts, it is not much cause for celebration for the maxis. 

    Why am I holding Bitcoin?

    It begs the question: why am I holding Bitcoin over Ethereum? Well, I believe in the asymmetric return profile of Bitcoin and I like the way it fits in with my portfolio. I am a boomer investor at heart, a lover of diversification and a big fan of the old portfolio allocation studies. 

    Stocks are and always have been the cornerstone of my portfolio, but Bitcoin presents as a nice diversifier, alongside some other asset classes.

    I’m also not as bullish on Ethereum long-term. Put frankly, I am not sure I understand it fully yet. My knowledge of Bitcoin is deeper and, since I entered the space in 2017, I have been intrigued by its macro implications and how unique it is. Ethereum is more technical and, for me, I am less clear on what its place in the world is. 

    That is not to hammer Ethereum. As I said, I’m not sure I understand it fully, even having bought my first ETH six years ago.

    And more importantly, past performance is not indicative of future success. Perhaps the past few months are perfectly indicative of this, which I will dig into in the final section. 

    Why is Bitcoin outperforming now?

    It is definitely notable that Bitcoin has accelerated against its counterpart (I nearly said rival!) this year, given the market has risen across the board. Typically, this has been when ETH has made gains. 

    I would love to explain why, but it is not that easy. What I tend to think is that it summarises quite how unique the current market climate is. We have a nasty mix of inflation (despite it softening in recent months) and high rates, while the world fears the possibility of a looming recession. 

    Bitcoin and Ethereum have never existed in this sort of market environment before – until last year, they had never been around during anything other than a raging bull market in the financial space, with all risk assets exploding since Bitcoin’s launch close to the nadir of the GFC in 2009.

    All Bitcoin and Ethereum have known is a low-rate, up-only market. So we need to bear that in mind (pun very much intended) when thinking about why market trends are shifting – the sample space is very small here and we have undoubtedly seen a transition to a new environment since the Federal Reserve began hiking rates last year. 

    The other aspect of this is that the bounceback this year has come after an incredibly harrowing period in the crypto market. There could simply be too much fear and PTSD following the bloodbath of 2022 for the market to scale back into altcoins. 

    Most altcoins offer minimal or no value, and hence are nothing but a byproduct of the low-rate environment which had persisted since the GFC until last year. This shift by the Fed amounts to a structural change and it is certainly harder to envision the sorts of gains that previous years brought when T-bills are available for investors at north of 4%, while the tech sector struggles through mass layoffs and collapsing share prices.

    This could be contributing to Bitcoin moving quicker than altcoins, including Ethereum, compared to what it has done in prior periods of rising prices. There could just be more lasting damage in the crypto space this time around, given the high-profile scandals of FTX, Celsius, LUNA and all the other cowboys that threw the entire space into a circus. 

    So just because Bitcoin has underperformed against Ethereum over the last six years does not mean that will continue into the future. Who knows, this nascent industry is barely a few years old.  

    But regardless of speculation about the future, one thing that Bitcoin’s underperformance against Ethereum over the last half-decade does mean, however, is that Bitcoin maxis should really stop and think before celebrating ETH falling close to its year-to-date low against BTC. 

    Then again, thinking is not a favourite pastime of that cohort. 

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  • Arguing that governments can’t shut down Bitcoin is missing the point

    Arguing that governments can’t shut down Bitcoin is missing the point

    Key Takeaways

    • Chair of the US Banking Committee has suggested a ban on all cryptocurrencies
    • Many declare that crypto is immune to government shutdowns, but this is only true directly
    • By attacking the ecosystem and the ability to access it, crypto can be curtailed significantly by lawmakers

     

    Bitcoin cannot be shut down, so the saying goes. But this misses the point.

    Firstly, let me be clear and affirm that this mantra is true, technically at least. Bitcoin exists on the Internet and hence it is immune to being shut down. Unless, of course, you somehow shut down the Internet. But for all intents and purposes, Bitcoin is decentralised and exists in the online world, a feat of technology that makes it resilient to being restrained.

    Bitcoin can’t be shut down directly, but indirectly is a different story

    But while a direct shutdown of the blockchain is impossible, governments can, at least theoretically, dent Bitcoin heavily and curtail its adoption by the masses. It might not qualify as technically shutting it down, and I am not commenting on the likelihood that this happens, but there is little doubt that if a concerted enough effort is made, an assault by lawmakers on Bitcoin could be devastating.

    We need only look at the prevalence of centralised entities in the space. While Bitcoin itself is decentralised, in order for the masses to access it, the vast majority go via centralised companies such as Binance or other exchanges. And what happens if governments go after these companies?

    These companies will be forced to abide by the laws. Sure, decentralised exchanges (DEXs) will remain, and like Bitcoin itself, are resilient to being directly shut down. But would you expect Bitcoin to achieve mainstream success and continue to grow into a legitimate financial asset if DEXs were the only option?

    Not only would institutions be reluctant to pursue this route, but they could also just be banned from holding it.

    US Banking Committee Chair suggest banning cryptocurrencies

    I write this article now in the wake of the story which emerged regarding the US Banking Committee Chair, Sherrod Brown, suggesting a ban on cryptocurrencies.

    Brown said:

    “I’ve already gone to the Treasury and the Secretary and asked for a government-wide assessment through all the various regulatory agencies. … The SEC has been particularly aggressive, and we need to move forward that way and legislatively if it comes to that.”

    It has been scoffed at in some quarters, but it’s worth paying attention to. The US is the financial capital of the world. Were the SEC to come out and ban it, this would have a seismic impact.

    Think of the chunk of the market that could be forbidden from holding Bitcoin – institutions, pension funds, public companies, etc. Or all the infrastructure that would be torn down, such as exchanges.

    On the flip side, it does remain a remote possibility. And getting back to my point earlier about how people overlook the potential for governments to shut Bitcoin down, Brown did acknowledge that “We want them to do what they need to do at the same time, maybe banning it, although banning it is very difficult because it would go offshore, and who knows how that would work.”

    Final Thoughts

    I’m not predicting any sort of demise for Bitcoin or crypto off the back of this. I just think that too many overlook how damaging governments can be towards the world’s biggest cryptocurrency. 

    Sure, the beauty of the blockchain is that it cannot be shut down directly. But indirectly? That is a different story. Governments carry too much power to be written off as “irrelevant” when it comes to Bitcoin.

    So far, there is nothing to think that countries such as the US will make such drastic moves to ban crypto. But after a torrid 2022 that has seen scandal after scandal rock the space, comments such as Sherrod Brown’s are not surprising. 

    In the remote possibility that these words were ever put into action, it would be foolish for investors to write it off as a benign development for crypto.

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