Tag: shortterm

  • BTC hovers at $115K; ETF flows turn negative, short-term holder profitability drops

    BTC hovers at $115K; ETF flows turn negative, short-term holder profitability drops

    BTC hovers at $115K; ETF flows turn negative, short-term holder profitability drops

    • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a low-liquidity “air gap” between $110K and $116K, according to Glassnode.
    • The market is “re-finding its footing” after a post-all-time-high correction amidst low volume and weak conviction.
    • Spot Bitcoin ETF flows recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow marking the largest since April.

    Bitcoin is treading water around the $115,000 mark on Thursday morning in Asia, up a modest 1% over the last 24 hours, as the inevitable correction following its recent all-time high continues to unfold amidst low trading volumes and a clear lack of market conviction.

    Analysts are now closely watching a low-liquidity zone that could either serve as a new foundation for the next leg up or become a trapdoor for a deeper price drop.

    According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin has entered what it describes as an “air gap”—a low-liquidity zone between $110,000 and $116,000.

    This has occurred after the price broke down from a major supply cluster where short-term holders had previously found significant support. These “air gaps” are areas that typically see very little historical trading activity.

    They can either provide an opportunity for new buyers to accumulate positions and build a strong base, or, if demand fails to materialize, they can lead to sharp and swift moves to the downside.

    “The market is effectively re-finding its footing,” the Glassnode analysts wrote, framing the range between $110,000 (the prior all-time high) and and 116,000 (the cost basis for recent buyers ) as the new critical battleground.

    They noted that while some opportunistic buying has emerged on there cent dip, with approximately 120,000 BTC acquired by new buyers, the price has yet to reclaim key resistance levels convincingly.

    A particularly important threshold is the 116,9K level, which marks the entry point for many recent short-term holders.

    Cooling sentiment: ETF outflows and reduced leverage

    Several indicators point to a cooling of the bullish fervor that recently propelled Bitcoin to its record highs. Short-term holder profitability has dropped from a peak of 100% down to 70%.

    While Glassnode frames this as a typical development for a bull market’s mid-phase, they caution that without a fresh wave of capital inflows, this could quickly erode market sentiment.

    Indeed, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have recently turned negative, with a 1,500 BTC outflow recorded earlier this week—the largest single-day outflow since April.

    At the same time, funding rates in the derivatives market have cooled significantly, a sign of reduced leverage and a more cautious stance among speculative traders.

    Market maker Enflux offered a similar take on the current environment. “Crypto markets remain in a fragile holding pattern. Despite some relief in the altcoin space, majors like BTC and ETH are still struggling to inspire confidence,” the firm wrote in a recent client note.

    “The broader trend? Heavy legs with more or less light volume.” Enflux concluded, “Until BTC and ETH reclaim strength with volume, the path of least resistance could remain sideways to down.”

    The market’s next significant move now likely hinges on whether a new cohort of buyers is willing to step in and build a solid support base within this low-volume “air gap,” or whether another flush down towards the $110,000 level is needed to fully reset the trend.

    For now, traders remain cautious, and the bulls are yet to prove they have regained control.

    Broader market snapshot

    • BTC: While the market navigates this “air gap,” some observers are pointing to a potential, longer-term Bitcoin supply shock.

    • This is being driven by reportedly drying up reserves on Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks and steady corporate accumulation, a combination that could “uncork” a major price move after a potential dip below $110,000.

    • ETH: Ethereum (ETH) is up 2% in the last 24 hours, trading just below the $3,600 mark. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks a broad basket of crypto assets, gained 1.69% to 3,815.22.

    • Gold: Gold’s recent rally stalled on Wednesday as traders took profits. The market is currently weighing rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut against ongoing U.S. trade tensions and a looming Fed leadership shakeup.

    • This has left prices flat after a three-day gain that was driven by signs of economic weakness. Spot gold last traded at $3,372.11, down 0.24% on the day.

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  • Bitcoin slips to $109K as short-term holders take $11.4B in profits

    Bitcoin slips to $109K as short-term holders take $11.4B in profits

    Bitcoin rally pauses below $110K; profit-taking by short-term holders intensifies

    • Bitcoin slipped to $109,000 Monday amid sluggish Memorial Day trading, but remains up 1.7% in 24 hours.
    • Short-term Bitcoin holders realized $11.4 billion in profits over the past 30 days, intensifying selling pressure.
    • A temporary US delay on 50% EU tariffs (until July 9) spurred overnight gains in crypto and European stocks.

    Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback to $109,000 on Monday, May 26th, navigating sluggish trading conditions as traditional US markets remained closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

    Despite this minor dip, the premier cryptocurrency maintained a position of strength, holding onto gains from a gentle weekend rise and remaining tantalizingly close to the all-time high it achieved just last week.

    While Bitcoin consolidated, the broader digital asset market saw pockets of notable activity.

    The CoinDesk 20 index, which tracks the top 20 digital coins (excluding stablecoins, memecoins, and exchange tokens), highlighted decentralized exchange Uniswap (UNI) as the day’s standout performer, with its token surging 6.6%.

    Tokens for Chainlink (LINK) and Avalanche (AVAX) also posted respectable gains of 3.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

    These gains largely materialized overnight, receiving a boost from a shift in US trade policy rhetoric.

    President Trump announced on Sunday that the implementation of proposed 50% tariffs on EU goods would be delayed until July 9.

    This was a reversal from his statement on Friday, which had called for the tariffs to take effect on June 1 and had consequently triggered a sell-off in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    European stocks, initially shaken by the tariff threat, rebounded on this news of a temporary reprieve.

    Profit-taking wave: short-term holders cash in

    Despite the overall positive sentiment that has recently propelled Bitcoin near record highs, analysts suggest the cryptocurrency may have entered a more volatile, consolidatory phase. T

    raders are currently digesting the rapid, nearly 50% surge from the lows seen in April, according to a Monday report from Bitfinex analysts.

    A significant factor potentially capping Bitcoin’s immediate upside is an intensification of profit-taking by short-term holders.

    The Bitfinex report highlighted that this particular cohort of investors has realized a substantial $11.4 billion in cumulative profits over the past 30 days.

    This figure stands in stark contrast to the $1.2 billion in profits realized by the same group in the preceding 30-day period, indicating a significant ramp-up in cashing out gains.

    “At these levels, the risk emerges that profit-taking outpaces new demand inflows,” the Bitfinex analysts wrote.

    Unless thereʼs a corresponding rise in new capital entering the market to absorb this supply, prices may begin to stall or even retrace.

    Navigating choppy waters

    The coming days are seen as crucial in determining Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

    “The next few days will be key to gauge whether the dip to $106,000 has set the range lows or a bigger reset is in the cards,” the Bitfinex report stated.

    Should a more significant pullback materialize, a key level of support to monitor is the short-term holder cost basis, which currently sits around $95,000.

    This represents the average price at which this group of investors acquired their Bitcoin.

    Despite the potential for near-term choppiness and profit-taking, the underlying outlook remains constructive, according to the analysts.

    They pointed to strong inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs—totaling an impressive $5.3 billion in May so far—alongside currently low market volatility and a lack of excessive speculative froth.

    These factors, they argue, suggest that Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward trend heading into the third quarter of the year, following this potential period of consolidation.

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