Tag: tariff

Could Trump’s $2,000 tariff rebates for Americans stimulate an altcoin surge?
- Trump considers $1,000–$2,000 tariff rebates for American households.
- Rebates aim to reduce the $37T national debt but face legal hurdles.
- Analysts see potential for a targeted altcoin surge, not a full-blown rally.
US President Donald Trump is reportedly thinking about giving American households a tariff rebate somewhere between $1,000 and $2,000.

He is pitching it as a kind of “dividend for the people,” and naturally, it could shake up both consumer spending and the markets.

The main aim? To chip away at the $37 trillion national debt.

But here’s the interesting part, people are already speculating this move could spark another altcoin rally, kind of like what we saw back in 2020–2021 when pandemic stimulus checks sent retail investors rushing into crypto.

Trump’s tariff dividend: Policy and legal challenges

The rebates Trump is talking about would come from the revenue generated by his aggressive tariff policies.

So far in 2025, those tariffs have brought in about $215 billion, and some projections suggest it could hit $300 billion by the end of the year.

Trump has been clear that reducing the national debt is still the main goal, but he’s also hinted at sending cash directly to Americans, saying something like, “We’re thinking maybe $1,000 to $2,000 – it would be great.”

The administration even claims that tariffs could eventually pull in over $1 trillion a year, though that’s still very much up in the air.

But here’s the catch: the legality of these tariffs is under serious judicial review.

The Supreme Court is set to hear a case in November 2025 to decide whether the president actually has the constitutional authority to impose broad tariffs.

Past rulings from the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit have already raised questions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has even warned that if the courts rule against them, the government might have to refund anywhere from $750 billion to $1 trillion in collected and projected revenue.

So, while the rebate idea sounds exciting, this legal uncertainty makes it far from guaranteed.

Altcoin markets: a potential surge?

Analysts are saying that if these rebates actually happen, we could see a surge in altcoin investing.

A 2023 study by Harvard’s Marco Di Maggio found that when households get extra cash, it often leads to more people buying crypto, especially retail investors looking for yield or a hedge against inflation.

That’s exactly what happened during the 2020–2021 altcoin boom, when Bitcoin’s dominance fell from 73% to 39%, thanks largely to pandemic stimulus checks flowing into digital assets.

Things are a bit different now, interest rates are over 4%, and the total crypto market cap has grown to $4 trillion.

But experts like Wintermute strategists say any new “alt season” would likely be more selective, focusing on coins with real utility instead of pure speculation.

Still, the psychological boost from direct payments, along with expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, could get retail investors excited again.

Platforms like XRP and Solana might be among the big winners if attention shifts toward innovation-driven blockchains.

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October 3, 2025
Bitcoin drops to $115K amid third major wave of profit-taking, new tariff tensions
- Bitcoin (BTC) fell 2.3% to ~$115,300, pressured by a third major wave of profit-taking and new US tariffs.
- $6–8 billion in realized gains were recorded in late July, with an “OG whale” selling 80,000 BTC on July 25.
- New tariff tensions, including measures targeting Canada, have rattled broader risk assets, including crypto.
Bitcoin is poised to end the trading week in Asia on a weaker note, down 2.3% on the day and changing hands above the $115,300 mark.

The leading cryptocurrency is grappling with a combination of renewed tariff pressure from the White House and a significant wave of profit-taking, following its historic run to new all-time highs.

According to a new report by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin market has just experienced its third major profit-taking wave of the 2023–2025 bull cycle.

A substantial $6–8 billion in realized gains were recorded in late July, indicating a significant number of investors chose to cash in on the recent price surge.

Like the previous two phases of profit-taking in this cycle, this latest wave was defined by large spikes in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric that indicates whether coins being sold are in profit or loss. This was particularly evident among short-term holders.

The wave was further intensified by a significant 80,000 BTC sell-off by an “OG whale” (an early, long-time holder) on July 25.

The data provider also noted that “new whale cohorts”—those who have accumulated their Bitcoin within the last 155 days—were the dominant sellers during this period.

In a clear sign of intent to exit positions at what were perceived as peak prices, exchange inflows surged to a massive 70,000 BTC in a single day after the OG whale’s sell-off.

The selling pressure was not confined to Bitcoin alone; Ethereum-based whales holding assets like WBTC (Wrapped Bitcoin), USDT, and USDC also realized up to $40 million in daily profits, further supporting the narrative of a broad-based capital rotation out of some positions.

Historically, these major profit-taking events have been followed by a two- to four-month period of market consolidation before the next major leg higher, CryptoQuant wrote in its report.

That very pattern may be playing out again, particularly as appetite from US investors appears to be waning. The Coinbase premium, a key indicator that tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other global exchanges, has recently flipped negative.

This suggests that American buyers are no longer willing to pay a premium for Bitcoin, a sign of cooling demand in a crucial market.

Tariff jitters return, adding to market pressure

Adding to this cautious internal market dynamic is the re-emergence of macroeconomic risk.

A new round of global tariffs from the White House is dragging down markets in Asia, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI both opening in the red.

Bitcoin, too, is not immune to these pressures. Historically, digital assets have tended to follow equity markets lower when the White House announces new tariffs, and while this correlation has shown signs of weakening, it has not disappeared entirely.

President Trump’s latest tariff escalation, which includes new measures that specifically target Canada, has rattled broader risk assets, with equities, bonds, and crypto all seeing declines amidst fears of renewed inflation and further supply chain disruptions.

Without a clear new macro catalyst or a resurgence of strong, structural inflows, risk-taking in the crypto market is likely to remain selective, with conviction being light. Market maker Enflux, in a note to CoinDesk, echoed this sentiment.

“Until BTC or ETH can post a clean reclaim of recent local highs, price action may stay choppy and rotation thematic rather than trend-driven,” the firm stated, suggesting a period of sideways, volatile trading may lie ahead.

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August 1, 2025
BTC holds $101.5K despite tariff news; bullish sentiment for $120K persists
- Bitcoin trades above $101.5K in Asia, showing resilience despite new U.S. tariff uncertainties.
- Analysts see continued bull market, with Polymarket traders pricing a 69% chance of BTC hitting $120K by year-end.
- Pythagoras Investments’ Gabeljic notes BTC’s lower volatility compared to other digital assets amid tariff news.
Bitcoin (BTC) commenced the Asian trading day holding steady above the $101,500 mark, demonstrating resilience in the face of fresh tariff-related uncertainties emanating from the Trump administration.

While near-term volatility remains a factor, market analysts and traders appear increasingly focused on a sustained bull market through the remainder of the year, with a significant degree of confidence that Bitcoin will reach or surpass the $120,000 level, underpinned by persistent corporate buying and a notable decline in overall market volatility.

The current market environment is characterized by a degree of caution, as unexpected tariff increases announced by the Trump administration have introduced some choppiness.

“The uncertainty from unexpected tariff increases by the Trump administration is causing some volatility,” Semir Gabeljic, director of capital formation at Pythagoras Investments, acknowledged in an email to CoinDesk.

However, he emphasized Bitcoin’s relative stability amidst these pressures: “However, bitcoin remains relatively strong, with lower volatility compared to other digital assets.”

This underlying strength is further supported by a persistently bullish sentiment among institutional players.

Gabeljic highlighted this by noting that traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are “pricing in a 69% probability that Bitcoin will hit at least $120,000 by year-end.”

This indicates a strong conviction in Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory, despite any intermittent market headwinds.

Echoing this optimistic outlook, FlowDesk, a Paris-based market maker, shared a similar sentiment in a recent note on Telegram, even amidst recently subdued market conditions.

“The market is clearly coiling, waiting to break out of a narrow band just below all-time highs,” FlowDesk wrote in their market update note.

They also observed a “significant repositioning and rotation from Bitcoin towards altcoins,” but crucially added that “BTC’s underlying strength remains evident.”

FlowDesk also pointed to some signs of cautious market behavior, such as a modest decline in BTC funding rates on major exchanges like Binance, which typically suggests a reduction in the use of leverage by traders.

However, on-chain borrowing activity has reportedly seen renewed vigor, a potential leading indicator that some market participants are anticipating an imminent breakout.

The unwavering trend of Bitcoin accumulation

A powerful and enduring narrative bolstering the bullish case for Bitcoin is the continued and accelerating accumulation of BTC by corporate treasuries.

Listed companies now reportedly hold approximately 809,100 BTC, an amount valued at nearly $85 billion. This figure represents a near doubling of corporate Bitcoin holdings compared to a year ago.

This significant uptake is being driven by a combination of factors, including favorable regulatory shifts and recent accounting changes that now allow companies to recognize gains on their Bitcoin holdings more readily.

This trend of corporate adoption underscores a fundamental belief in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition and its utility as a treasury reserve asset.

“The expectation of a continued strong bitcoin remains,” Gabeljic affirmed, suggesting that this institutional and corporate buying pressure is a key pillar supporting the market’s current strength and future potential.

As Bitcoin consolidates and traders navigate short-term uncertainties, the underlying accumulation by larger entities provides a strong foundation for continued optimism.

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June 6, 2025
Crypto market braces for impact amid Trump’s tense global tariff negotiations
- Cryptocurrencies have seen a sudden dip as Trump proposes a 50% tariff on EU goods.
- Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by 4% while Ethereum (ETH) has dropped by over 3%.
- As the market braces for tariffs’ impact, the recently held TRUMP memecoin gala dinner has stirred controversy and market volatility.
The cryptocurrency market, known for its volatility, is now facing fresh uncertainty as US President Donald Trump intensifies global tariff negotiations, sending shockwaves through both traditional and digital financial systems.

Bitcoin (BTC), which recently hit an all-time high of $111,814, has become increasingly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with its price movements closely tracking Trump’s latest trade threats.

Notably, BTC has today experienced a sharp 4% decline, with Ethereum following closely with a 3.2% drop following Trump’s Truth Social post declaring that negotiations with the European Union were “going nowhere,” a statement that immediately rattled markets.

As panic spread, over $300 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, showcasing how digital assets, often viewed as uncorrelated, are becoming more reactive to global policy decisions.

90-day tariff pause almost coming to an end

As the 90-day tariff pause nears its expiry, Trump has proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports, alongside a 25% tariff specifically targeting iPhones manufactured abroad, raising alarms about broader economic implications.

Investors now fear that these tariffs could not only escalate trade tensions but also lead to retaliatory actions from the EU, further complicating global market conditions.

Even though the EU has so far refrained from escalating the situation, the clock is ticking, with a 90-day tariff pause set to expire in July, placing immense pressure on ongoing negotiations.

Only the United Kingdom has finalised a trade agreement so far, and while India is expected to sign within days, other major players remain in a tense waiting game.

Market downturn amid fears of resumption of tariffs

With July just a month away, market watchers like Crypto Caesar now see Bitcoin’s $110,000 level as a key resistance point, with traders emphasising the need for BTC to hold above $109,000 to preserve the current bullish structure.

$BTC – #Bitcoin with the retest after President Trump proposes 50% tariff on the European Union starting June 1, 2025. Here we go again. We need to hold the green zone. pic.twitter.com/N9BIHUA18Q

— Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) May 23, 2025

Ethereum (ETH) has not been spared from the volatility, holding a support level at $2,500 but struggling to breach the persistent resistance at $2,700, even as daily losses extend to 4%.

Notably, the ETHBTC pair continues to drift downward, suggesting weakening momentum in altcoins unless the broader market stabilises or Ethereum regains relative strength.

Pi Coin, another asset under scrutiny, showed signs of upward movement earlier this month but failed to maintain gains above $1.23 due to aggressive short-term selling and long-term investor scepticism.

US tech stocks have mirrored the downturn in crypto, with Apple shares falling amid fears that higher costs could be passed on to consumers, hurting demand and corporate profits alike.

Trump’s involvement in crypto stirs controversy

Amid all this, Trump’s personal involvement in crypto has added an unexpected layer of controversy, culminating in a high-profile gala for top holders of the TRUMP memecoin.

The event, attended by major figures like TRON founder Justin Sun, drew widespread criticism and accusations of corruption, especially as federal lawmakers call for investigations into presidential conflicts of interest in cryptocurrency ventures.

As the top holder of $TRUMP and proud supporter of President Trump, it was an honor to attend the Trump Gala Dinner by @GetTrumpMemes.

Thank you @POTUS for your unwavering support of our industry!#MakeCryptoGreatAgain🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/Yy2TuWEgzT

— H.E. Justin Sun 🍌 (@justinsuntron) May 23, 2025

Following the gala, the TRUMP token spiked to $16 before dropping to $13.81, reflecting how quickly sentiment can shift amid political spectacle and regulatory uncertainty.

While Trump’s supporters argue that his aggressive trade stance is a strategic play to bring manufacturing back to the US, economists warn of rising consumer prices and slower economic growth.

Crypto traders, already bracing for volatility, now find themselves navigating a complex intersection of policy, politics, and profit, where even a single headline can trigger billions in liquidations.

As July approaches and the tariff deadline looms, the crypto market remains on edge, anticipating either a breakthrough in trade talks or another wave of volatility that could reshape investor confidence once again.

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May 23, 2025
US Bitcoin miners brace for bleak Q1 earnings amid tariff
- Most major US public Bitcoin miners expected to report Q1 losses despite high BTC prices.
- US tariffs on imported mining rigs raised costs and created strategic uncertainty for miners.
- The April Bitcoin halving event further pressured revenue by cutting block rewards by 50%.
Despite entering office with promises to champion the US Bitcoin mining industry, President Donald Trump’s return to the White House hasn’t translated into immediate prosperity for the sector.

As American crypto miners prepare to release their first quarterly earnings since the administration change, analysts anticipate a challenging period marked by losses, squeezed margins, and operational headwinds, even against the backdrop of Bitcoin hitting record highs earlier in the year.

The paradox of pain: losses despite high Bitcoin prices

The prevailing expectation is one of financial strain.

According to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg, seven out of the eight largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners based in the US are projected to report a net loss for the first quarter of 2025.

This stark outlook contrasts sharply with the significant adjusted net income of $1.1 billion reported collectively by the group in the same period of 2024, now estimated to swing to a loss of $190 million.

Among the cohort, only CleanSpark Inc. is anticipated by analysts to post a profit.

This downturn comes despite Bitcoin reaching a record above $109,000 in January and averaging roughly 75% higher in price during the first quarter compared to the previous year.

Concrete results are already emerging: Riot Platforms Inc., a major player, reported a Q1 loss of $296.4 million on Thursday, a dramatic reversal from its $211 million net income in Q1 2024.

Competitive squeeze: record difficulty and rising costs

Several factors are converging to pressure miners’ profitability.

A primary challenge is the soaring level of competition within the network.

Mining difficulty, a metric reflecting the total computing power dedicated to securing the Bitcoin blockchain, has repeatedly broken records in recent months.

This surge in the global “hash rate” means more miners are competing for the same fixed amount of newly issued Bitcoin rewards.

“This is going to be an interesting quarter for the Bitcoin miners and perhaps a difficult one over the past few months,” commented Brian Dobson, managing director at brokerage firm Clear Street.

“We will see margin compression and lower revenues from Bitcoin mining due to that higher global difficulty rate.”

This intense competition is partly a legacy of the late 2024 Bitcoin price surge, fueled by Trump’s pro-crypto stance, which prompted miners to rush orders for more powerful, specialized mining machines (rigs).

Furthermore, rising energy costs in some key US mining states have added to operational expenses during the same period.

Growth in international mining operations, including from Russia and China, has also intensified the global hash rate competition, according to Ethan Vera, COO at Luxor Technology.

Tariff tremors and strategic hesitation

Compounding the competitive pressure are the direct and indirect impacts of US trade policy.

The specialized mining rigs essential for operations are mostly manufactured in Asia.

Tariffs imposed on these machines, some originating from countries like Malaysia, directly increase capital expenditure for US miners.

Vera noted that potential further tariff hikes “will be very detrimental, return profiles and growth forecasts can be hindered from that,” adding wryly, “With tariffs coming in, I think everyone outside the US will benefit from that.”

Supply chains faced additional disruption early this year due to heavy border inspections and the US Commerce Department’s blacklisting of an AI affiliate (Xiamen Sophgo Technologies Ltd.) of Bitmain, the largest rig supplier, in January.

More broadly, the unpredictable nature of tariff policy under the Trump administration is creating strategic paralysis.

“The management teams are hesitant to develop a multi-year strategy based on what tariffs look like today when they realize that three months from now we could have a very different conversation on what the tariffs would look like,” explained Dobson.

Capital crunch: shifting financing strategies

Accessing capital has also become more challenging. Historically, many public miners relied heavily on “at-the-market” (ATM) stock offerings to raise billions for purchasing machines and funding energy-intensive operations.

However, the retreat in the broader stock market since the post-election highs has made equity financing less attractive.

Consequently, companies are increasingly turning towards debt instruments. MARA Holdings Inc., Riot Platforms, and CleanSpark have all utilized convertible bonds or credit facilities recently to secure liquidity.

“I think the big public companies don’t want to sell shares in the current market, this is an expensive way for them to raise capital, whereas the debit instruments are just lower-cost capital,” Vera observed.

Adding a final layer of difficulty is the impact of the Bitcoin “halving” event that occurred last April.

This pre-programmed code update slashed the Bitcoin rewards paid to miners for validating transactions by 50%, directly cutting into their primary revenue stream.

An unintended consequence?

While President Trump campaigned on making the US a leader in Bitcoin mining, the first quarter under his administration seems defined by miners grappling with the challenging side effects of his broader policies.

Tariffs are hiking equipment costs and potentially benefiting foreign competitors, while market volatility linked to policy uncertainty has hampered access to equity capital.

As Vera concluded, “In terms of the tariffs, I don’t think Trump has Bitcoin mining as his number one priority to focus on… The trade war, for him, is the most important thing.”

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May 2, 2025
Bitcoin near $95K despite tariff woes, analyst concern
- Bitcoin traded above $95,400 Tuesday, showing resilience despite economic concerns.
- US stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq +0.55%) also continued their recovery from early April tariff fears.
- Consumer confidence hit lowest since May 2020; JOLTS job openings missed estimates.
Cryptocurrency markets displayed notable stability on Tuesday, seemingly unfazed by mounting pessimism regarding the economic impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

Bitcoin edged higher, reclaiming ground above $95,000, while traditional stock markets also continued a recovery trend, prompting some analysts to question whether markets are accurately pricing in underlying economic risks.

Markets march higher despite warning signs

Bitcoin (BTC) continued its recent positive momentum, gaining about 1% over the preceding 24 hours to trade near $95,400.

This move brought the key $96,000 level – last seen in late February – within striking distance.

The broader crypto market showed similar resilience, with the CoinDesk 20 index advancing 1.1%.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) stood out with a significant 6.3% surge.

Crypto-related equities also participated, albeit modestly, with Coinbase (COIN) up 0.9% and MicroStrategy (MSTR) adding 3.3%, while Janover (JNVR) continued its strong run (+16%) linked to its Solana accumulation strategy.

This relative calm in digital assets mirrored strength in traditional equities.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite posted gains of 0.55%, extending the recovery from the tariff-induced panic seen earlier in April.

Economic data paints sobering picture

However, this market buoyancy unfolded against a backdrop of increasingly concerning economic indicators, suggesting a potential slowdown possibly linked to the White House’s tariff strategies.

The Conference Board reported that US consumer confidence plummeted to its lowest level since May 2020, with the forward-looking consumer outlook component hitting its weakest point since 2011.

Simultaneously, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling labor market, with job openings falling to 7.19 million in March, significantly below the expected 7.5 million.

Adding to the complex policy environment, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick mentioned Tuesday that a trade deal had been reached with an unspecified country, though he noted it still required ratification, offering little immediate clarity on the broader tariff situation.

Analyst warns of market ‘blindness’ to fundamental risks

This apparent disconnect between market performance and weakening economic data has raised red flags among some observers.

Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at digital asset investment firm Bitwise, expressed strong concern about the market’s perspective.

“Hard to fathom how blind the market really is,” Park posted on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).

He argued that the market’s intense focus on potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts misses a larger, more fundamental risk.

“A Fed cut means nothing if US creditworthiness is permanently impaired by the global community as resulted by dollar weaponization,” Park elaborated, linking the potential damage to Trump administration policies that leverage the dollar’s global role.

He suggested that speculation about whether the Fed might be forced to cut rates to offset tariff impacts is misplaced.

“That’s the mispricing we are talking about here,” he continued.

The myopic focus on whether [we] are getting a fed cut in May/June is completely irrelevant if the notion of the risk-free as we know it is fundamentally challenged forever, which means cost of capital globally is going higher.

Park’s comments highlight a deeper concern: that markets might be rallying on short-term hopes (like potential rate cuts) while ignoring potentially severe, longer-term structural damage to the US financial standing and the global cost of capital caused by ongoing policy uncertainty and aggressive trade tactics.

While Bitcoin holds firm near recent highs, the debate continues over whether current market strength reflects genuine resilience or a dangerous disregard for underlying economic headwinds.

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April 30, 2025
Bitcoin rally gains steam above $95K amid Fed pressure, tariff worries
- Bitcoin climbed above $95,490 Monday ahead of Trump’s 100-day speech, eyeing policy clarity.
- Potential confirmation of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve could be a major catalyst towards $100K.
- Bitcoin shows resilience (YTD +5.6%) vs. US stocks (YTD -5%) amid tariff uncertainty, boosting safe-haven appeal.
Bitcoin demonstrated renewed strength on Monday, climbing back above the significant $95,000 mark as the broader financial markets turned their focus towards President Donald Trump’s upcoming 100-day policy review speech.

Amidst a complex macroeconomic backdrop shaped by Trump’s second term policies, on-chain data showing significant Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges added fuel to bullish sentiment, prompting speculation about a potential push towards the $100,000 milestone.

Anticipation builds ahead of Trump’s 100-day review

After a period of consolidation, Bitcoin prices pushed higher, reaching levels above $95,490 according to CoinGecko data, marking an 0.8% gain over 24 hours and reflecting a robust 8.9% increase week-over-week.

This price action mirrored gains seen in US equity markets, particularly among top technology stocks, as investors awaited clarity from Trump’s address.

Crypto-related policies have been a notable feature of Trump’s second term thus far, and market participants are particularly keen for updates on proposals like the potential creation of a US Bitcoin strategic reserve.

A definitive announcement confirming the strategic reserve initiative could serve as a powerful catalyst, potentially triggering a rapid (“parabolic”) move towards and beyond $100,000.

Conversely, renewed emphasis on aggressive tariff strategies or drastic budget cuts in the speech could dampen overall market sentiment, potentially capping Bitcoin’s near-term upside despite its recent resilience.

Macro crosscurrents: tariffs, inflation, and Fed pressure

The first 100 days of Trump’s term have been marked by distinct policy trends influencing market dynamics.

While US inflation has continued its downward trend (falling from a 9.1% peak in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025, per TradingEconomics), Trump’s continued advocacy for tariffs – measures widely warned by economists as potentially inflationary – creates tension.

The President has claimed victory over inflation while simultaneously pushing for policies that could reignite price pressures.

This backdrop informs Trump’s recently intensified calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, including public pressure and threats aimed at replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

While these pronouncements have sparked market speculation, data from the CME FedWatch tool still indicates a dominant (90.1%) probability that the Fed will maintain current rates at its upcoming May 7 FOMC meeting.

However, the administration’s focus on tariffs (“impose across-the-board tariffs on most foreign-made goods”) continues to inject uncertainty into US stock markets.

This uncertainty appears to be bolstering Bitcoin’s narrative as a potential safe-haven asset, relatively insulated from direct geopolitical trade spats and supply chain disruptions.

Notably, Bitcoin has posted year-to-date gains of 5.6%, contrasting with declines seen in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices (down 5% YTD) during the same period.

Should Trump’s policies continue to foster volatility in traditional financial (TradFi) markets, Bitcoin’s perceived resilience could attract further capital inflows.

On-chain flows signal accumulation?

Adding weight to the bullish case is compelling on-chain data indicating significant Bitcoin movement off cryptocurrency exchanges.

Analysis from CryptoQuant reveals that investors have withdrawn over $4 billion worth of Bitcoin from tracked exchange wallets since Trump’s recent calls for rate cuts began around April 22.

Total exchange reserve balances reportedly fell from $237.8 billion to $233.8 billion during this period.

This trend of coins leaving exchanges is often interpreted bullishly, as it suggests investors are moving Bitcoin into private storage (“cold wallets”) for longer-term holding rather than keeping it readily available for sale on trading platforms.

This reduction in easily accessible supply, coupled with potentially steady or increasing demand triggers (like the safe-haven narrative or strategic reserve news), strengthens the argument for a potential price breakout.

Bitcoin tests $95K resistance, eyes $100K breakout

With demand factors seemingly active and exchange supply tightening, the technical picture comes into sharp focus. Bitcoin is currently testing the significant resistance zone around 95,000−95,500.

Successfully overcoming and holding above this level is seen as crucial for confirming the next leg higher.

The $100,000 psychological milestone remains the key upside target in the near term, with the confluence of macro uncertainty, potential policy catalysts from Trump’s speech, and supportive on-chain data suggesting the stage could be set for such a move.

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April 29, 2025