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Crypto markets turn red after Trump threatens to halt cooking oil imports from China
- The crypto market turned red after a new tariff threat from President Trump.
- Trump threatened to halt cooking oil imports from China over soybean purchases.
- Bitcoin fell 2.4 percent and Ether dropped 3.3 percent within an hour of the post.
A single social media post has once again sent a jolt of fear through the cryptocurrency market, as a fresh and unconventional tariff threat from US President Donald Trump ignited a new wave of selling, plunging the entire digital asset space into the red.

The sudden downturn is a stark and painful reminder of the market’s extreme sensitivity to the president’s every whim, a fragility that was brutally exposed in a historic liquidation event just last week.

An ‘economically hostile act,’ an immediate market reaction

The catalyst for the latest sell-off was a post on Truth Social on October 14, in which President Trump took aim at Beijing’s trade behavior, specifically its failure to purchase American soybeans.

“I believe that China purposefully [is] not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, [which] is an Economically Hostile Act,” Trump wrote.

We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.

The market’s reaction was immediate and severe. Within an hour of the post, Bitcoin (BTC) had dropped by 2.4 percent to around $112,861, while Ether (ETH) fell 3.3 percent to $4,108.

The total crypto market capitalization declined by roughly 2.9 percent, a clear and direct response to the president’s latest trade war gambit.

The ghost of liquidations past

This latest sell-off, while significant, is a mere aftershock compared to the earthquake that rocked the market last week.

A previous threat from Trump to impose 100 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports had triggered a violent and historic crash.

At its peak, that “bloodbath” saw more than 19.2 billion dollars in leveraged positions liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto’s history and overwhelming major trading platforms like Binance and Coinbase.

The memory of that carnage is still fresh, and it has left the market in a deeply fragile and nervous state.

Even before Trump’s latest post, crypto analysts had been warning of an impending market crash, with one popular analyst telling the trading community on October 13 to exit the market as a “big dump” was coming.

A market on a knife’s edge

The latest data from Coinglass shows that the market is still bleeding from last week’s wounds.

Over the past 24 hours, another 715.13 million dollars in positions have been liquidated, the vast majority of which were bullish long positions.

This new wave of selling, sparked by a presidential post about soybeans and cooking oil, is a potent symbol of the strange and unpredictable forces that now govern the digital asset space.

In a market haunted by the ghost of a historic crash and stalked by the whims of a single Twitter feed, the only certainty is more uncertainty to come.

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October 15, 2025
Celestia price reclaims $1 after crash to $0.27: TIA forecast
- Celestia’s TIA token surged back to $1 on October 14, 2025, following a steep decline to $0.27 on Oct. 10
- Technical indicators however signal weakness amid recent bearish momentum.
- Short-term forecasts predict TIA faces immediate resistance around $1.20 as bulls aim to strengthen the recovery from recent lows.
Celestia (TIA) price is back above $1 as bulls show resilience amid a volatile crypto market.

As the modular blockchain network’s native token seeks to continue higher, what’s the outlook in the short-term?

Notably, Celestia’s market recovery follows a significant crash that saw buyers hover at new all-time lows under $0.30 on October 10, 2025. Bittensor and a few other altcoins have nonetheless posted key gains.

Celestia price crashed to below $0.30

Celestia’s token declined sharply as Bitcoin dumped and altcoins nosedived last week, with TIA hitting a new all-time low of $0.27.

The crash, driven by multiple structural and market-wide factors, threatened to undo a broader sentiment that had bulls in “Uptober” mood.

A broader crypto market dump, triggered by Bitcoin’s dip to below $105,000 on October 11, compounded the pressure on the token.

TIA breached key supports at $1.35 and $1.00 as it reached the $0.27 floor.

While the crash wiped out billions in value, Celestia’s bulls were able to rebound to around $0.93.

On Monday, an uptick saw them climb to $1.26 before retreating as macro jitters around US-China trade tensions pulled risk asset markets down. However, the token was looking to hold above $1.

TIA price prediction

TIA’s price trajectory appears cautiously optimistic, bolstered by technical rebounds and strategic initiatives.

Recently, the team shared an outlook for the modular blockchain, comparing its growth to the huge impact that Amazon Web Services had amid the explosive web2 growth.

“Celestia is still in its infancy, yet it is positioning itself to become the proxy for blockspace demand. After a period of disillusionment, growth continues to accelerate,” the team wrote.

Although the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39, it has flipped from the oversold territory below 30.

This signals exhaustion among sellers and a high probability of mean reversion, historically preceding notable bounces in TIA’s price – recently from $1.35 to highs of $2.28 in July 2025.

Celestia chart by TradingView

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also exhibits bearish momentum, but this looks to be weakening as the histogram narrows.

A bullish divergence hints at accumulating buy pressure that could help bulls.

Short-term forecasts are projecting a range of $2.27 to $3.40.

However, bulls must first strengthen above the immediate supply zone around $1.20, with hurdles at $1.54 and $1.90.

Bullish scenarios could see Celestia price target the $10-14 range in coming months.

The all-time high above $20 reached in February 2024 is also a legitimate target in the current cycle.

Failure to hold $1 though could allow bears to retest prices below $0.90.

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October 14, 2025
Bittensor price surges 12% as TAO defies market slump
- Bittensor price continued higher despite the overall crypto market dump.
- TAO was up by more than 12% amid catalysts such as Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust news.
- Bulls could target $715 and then the psychological $1,000 mark.
Bittensor (TAO) has surged by more than 12% in the past 24 hours to rank among the top market performers today, with TAO trading to highs of $475 as it bucks the trend across most altcoins.

While the uptick came alongside a bounce for decentralized AI protocols, what else helped the Bittensor price up?

Why is Bittensor price up today?

TAO’s impressive gains align closely with the recent launch of a liquid staked TAO token, which enhances staking efficiency and liquidity within the Bittensor ecosystem.

Liquid staking allows users to earn rewards on their TAO holdings without locking assets, enabling participation in DeFi activities like lending or yield farming.

Platforms such as Tensorplex have facilitated this by bridging TAO to Ethereum and Base networks, issuing stTAO tokens that represent staked positions.

On October 13, 2025, the Tao. App announced the launch of Virtual TAO (VTAO), a new omnichain liquid staked TAO token powered by LayerZero.

Users can bridge vTAO from Bittensor to any Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible chain.

The token is available across Base, Ethereum and Arbitrum and will soon go live on Solana.

Also catalysing TAO price gains is the momentum that followed Grayscale’s Bittensor-related news.

The company filed a Form 10 registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Grayscale Bittensor Trust ($TAO) on October 12.

This filing marks the initial step toward converting the trust into a full SEC Reporting Company under Section 12(g) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

TAO’s price has surged amid forecasts that the move could fast-track the potential launch of a Bittensor exchange-traded fund.

TAO price forecast

Despite the dip to lows of $224 on October 11 amid a crypto bloodbath, Bittensor’s price has received a boost with the above tailwinds.

After bouncing to highs of $475, TAO’s technical outlook points to potential upside continuation.

Key indicators on the daily chart, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), give bulls an upper hand.

TAO price chart by TradingView

While the daily RSI has climbed to 71, entering overbought territory, it’s not overextended.

This signals likely buying momentum and investor conviction, and TAO could climb further before pullback amid profit-taking.

Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recently executed a bullish crossover.

The histogram has expanded and signals more gains.

Short-term projections for TAO include a surge to a new year-to-date high above $500, with bulls likely to eye December 2024 peak above $715.

The $1,000 level is a major target for buyers.

However, risks such as broader market corrections could allow bears to test levels below the $300–$360 support zone.

$225 and then $180 are key levels.

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October 14, 2025
Beyond Bitcoin: How Asia’s new crypto playbook is breaking from the west
- A reported $600 million BNB fund signals a shift in Asia’s crypto strategy.
- Asian institutions are favoring ‘infrastructure tokens’ over store-of-value.
- The West tokenizes TradFi, while the East builds crypto-native liquidity.
On the surface, it looks like a straightforward bet on a crypto behemoth.

The reported plan by China Renaissance to raise 600 million dollars for a BNB-focused investment vehicle, with Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s own YZi Labs investing alongside, seems like a simple vote of confidence in the world’s largest crypto exchange.

But according to some of the market’s sharpest observers, this is something far deeper: a clear and powerful signal that a great divergence is underway, a fundamental split in how the East and the West are choosing to build their crypto empires.

A tale of two strategies: The great divide

While Western markets have been laser-focused on tokenizing traditional finance—turning Treasuries, funds, and real-world assets into digital tokens—a different playbook is being written in Asia.

According to the Singapore-based market maker Enflux, the China Renaissance move is a prime example of a broader and more profound strategic shift.

“Regional capital allocators are seeking exposure to infrastructure tokens that drive transaction flow, not just store-of-value assets,” Enflux said in a note to CoinDesk.

This ties into the broader shift where Asian capital markets are building out their own layer of crypto-native liquidity networks while Western markets tokenized TradFi.

Value in motion, not just in scarcity

The logic behind this divergence is both simple and powerful: in the long run, value should be captured not just by scarcity, but by activity.

Assets like BNB are the perfect embodiment of this philosophy. While Binance is not a publicly traded company, its BNB token serves as a powerful proxy, its value a direct reflection of the market’s confidence in the health and activity of the entire Binance ecosystem.

This is not an isolated trend. The recent move by Tron to create a publicly listed company is another key example.

The goal is to give investors direct, regulated exposure to the activity on the TRX network, a bustling hub for USDT transactions across Latin America.

It is a bet on the utility and the velocity of the network, not just the static value of its native token.

The blueprint for a new financial architecture

If this thesis is correct, then the China Renaissance fund is more than just a new investment vehicle; it is an early blueprint for the next generation of institutional products in Asia. These are not funds designed to simply hold digital gold.

They are permanent capital vehicles designed to own the very pipes of the crypto economy.
The message is clear.

While the West is focused on bringing the old world onto the blockchain, the East is increasingly focused on building a new world, with its own native financial architecture.

The great game of crypto is no longer being played by one set of rules; it has become a tale of two very different, and potentially competing, visions for the future.

Market movement

BTC: Bitcoin is trading above 114,500 dollars, holding relatively flat as the market finds its footing and stabilizes after the volatility of the previous weekend.

ETH: Ethereum has risen 1.5 percent to 4,230 dollars as network activity shows signs of picking up, a move of resilience that comes even as US-listed Ethereum ETFs saw 118 million dollars in outflows.

Gold: Gold has surged 2 percent to a new record of 4,103 dollars an ounce. The powerful move is being driven by renewed US-China trade tensions and the growing expectation of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are sending investors fleeing toward safe-haven assets.

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October 14, 2025
Crypto Black Friday explained: How $19.5 billion vanished in hours
- Bitcoin plunged 8.4% as liquidity collapsed across exchanges.
- Oracle glitches triggered cross-liquidations and temporary de-pegs.
- The crash exposed major vulnerabilities in crypto infrastructure.
On 10–11 October 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced one of its sharpest collapses in years — an event the community has dubbed Crypto Black Friday.

In just a few hours, more than $19.5 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, sending Bitcoin down by 8.4% and shaking investor confidence worldwide.

What began as a reaction to the US’s 100% tariff announcement on Chinese goods quickly revealed much deeper cracks in the system — showing how automated trading, thin liquidity, and structural weaknesses combined to trigger a chain reaction across exchanges.

What triggered the sell-off?

The first signs of the crash appeared after President Trump confirmed steep new tariffs on Chinese imports, fuelling fears of higher inflation and tighter Federal Reserve policy.

Traders rushed to unwind risky positions, leading to rapid liquidations in Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Wrapped Beacon ETH (WBETH), and Binance-Smart-based Solana (BNSOL).

But geopolitical panic alone doesn’t explain how billions disappeared so quickly. Analysts say technical and structural factors amplified the event.

Liquidity across exchanges was unusually low, and some Binance users reported frozen accounts during the sell-off.

High-leverage looped loans and a temporary de-pegging of the USDE stablecoin made matters worse, creating a cascade of forced sales. Binance later confirmed system issues and offered compensation to affected users.

How technical flaws magnified the collapse

According to a BeinCrypto report, during the sell-off, CoinGlass — a popular analytics site — faced a sophisticated proxy attack that briefly disabled access to its data and services.

This interruption added to market confusion just as traders were scrambling for real-time information.

At the same time, a series of unusually large transactions occurred moments before several oracle updates.

These oracles — the systems that feed real-world prices into blockchain smart contracts — briefly mispriced certain assets, triggering automatic liquidations across multiple trading pairs.

The mispricing also caused some stablecoins to lose their peg temporarily, creating brief windows where arbitrage bots and high-frequency traders could profit.

Within minutes, millions of dollars moved between exchanges as automated systems responded to the volatility, deepening the market crash.

Was it a coordinated attack?

Not everyone believes this was an organic crash. Some analysts argue that the patterns of trades and timing of oracle updates suggest deliberate manipulation.

Data showed that the most extreme de-pegs affected pairs with known update schedules, while large-scale short positions were placed just before liquidation cascades began.

This has led to speculation that certain market actors may have exploited the structure of the crypto market itself — using automated systems and leverage mechanisms to engineer volatility.

The idea is that, rather than hacking wallets or stealing funds, attackers could manipulate the market by exploiting predictable behaviours in oracles, exchanges, and algorithms.

Still, other experts maintain that this was simply an overleveraged market reacting to stress.

When traders take on too much debt and sentiment shifts suddenly, cascading liquidations can happen without any external interference.

The synchronised nature of the event across multiple exchanges, however, continues to fuel debate.

What the crash revealed about crypto markets

Crypto Black Friday has exposed how fragile the digital asset ecosystem remains despite its growing size.

With $19.5 billion wiped out in hours, the event showed how quickly risk can spread when systems rely heavily on leverage, automated trading, and opaque liquidity pools.

Exchanges such as Binance have since launched internal audits and pledged to improve transparency, but experts warn that these are short-term fixes.

The real challenge lies in redesigning core systems — including how leverage is managed, how oracles feed data, and how liquidity is distributed across markets.

The incident has renewed calls for better on-chain oversight and global standards for crypto risk management.

For a trillion-dollar market to mature, analysts say it must balance innovation with stronger safeguards against both systemic shocks and sophisticated manipulation.

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October 13, 2025
Bitcoin, Ethereum rebound following ‘largest single-day wipeout in crypto history’
- The crypto market suffered its “largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.”
- Nearly $20 billion in liquidations were triggered on Friday alone.
- The crash was sparked by President Trump’s new tariff threats against China.
It was a brutal and historic bloodbath, a sudden and violent purge that resulted in what one analyst has called “the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history.”

A promising “Uptober” rally was brought to a catastrophic halt on Friday as a geopolitical bombshell from the White House sent a shockwave of fear through the global markets, triggering a cascade of liquidations that erased nearly $20 billion from the digital asset space in a single day.

The carnage was swift and merciless. Over a harrowing seven-hour period, Bitcoin plunged from the relative safety of $121,000 to a grim low of $109,000.

The pain was felt across the market, with Ethereum dipping to $3,686 and Solana touching just above $173.

But the real story was in the leveraged positions that were being systematically annihilated.

The volatile session triggered a “flash crash of liquidations,” wiping out almost 7 billion across all markets within a single hour, with a staggering 5.5 billion of that coming from bullish long positions, Sean Dawson, head of research at Dervie, told Decrypt.

By the time the dust settled, the majority of the day’s nearly 20 billion in liquidations—a colossal 16.7 billion—had come from longs, according to CoinGlass data.

The presidential spark: A tariff threat ignites a firestorm

This was not a crypto-specific crisis; it was a contagion of fear sparked by the highest office in the United States.

The sell-off across both crypto and traditional markets followed President Trump’s stunning announcement that he was canceling a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and had ordered a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports.

The threat, which Trump himself acknowledged could be “potentially painful” for Americans, immediately sent risk assets into a tailspin.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped 3.6 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent, and the Dow dropped 1.9 percent, a clear sign that the market was taking the president’s words as a declaration of a new and more aggressive phase in the trade war.

The aftermath: A textbook relief rally

But just as quickly as the storm descended, a fragile calm began to return.

By the weekend, China appeared to soften its stance, and a market that had been gripped by panic began to recalibrate, with analysts suggesting the brutal rout may have been a brief, if violent, geopolitical overreaction.

Now, a powerful rebound is underway. “What we’re seeing is a textbook relief rally,” Dean Serroni, CEO of crypto investment manager Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.

The recovery has been as swift as the crash was brutal. Bitcoin has surged 5% on the day to retake the $115,100 level.

Ethereum is leading the charge with an impressive 10.5% jump to $4,138, while major altcoins like Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin are soaring with double-digit gains.

Serroni explained the powerful bounce as “pure short-covering and mean reversion after the market overreacted to Trump’s tariff bombshell.”

He pointed to the “thin” selling pressure and the dramatic reset in open interest across derivatives markets, a sign that the carnage was primarily a technical event, a violent purge of “overleveraged derivatives traders” rather than a fundamental shift in the market’s long-term outlook.

His final verdict was a succinct and powerful summary of a wild and historic week: “This rout was a geopolitical knee-jerk, not a structural break.”

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October 13, 2025
Why Bitcoin could rebound up to 21% this week: experts explain

Bitcoin took a sharp plunge on Friday, falling more than 12% after President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, sparking fears of a new trade war.

The news sent shockwaves through the crypto market, wiping out over $19 billion in liquidations and causing panic selling among millions of traders.

Bitcoin briefly dropped below $105,000 before bouncing back slightly.

This plunge mirrored broader market fears as investors rushed to safer assets, amidst uncertainty over escalating US-China tensions and economic stability.

But, in the face of deep uncertainty, some experts are keeping calm and asked investors to show some faith in the fundamentals of the flagship cryptocurrency.

Why Bitcoin can make a big rebound this week

As per Cryptonews.com, economist Timothy Peterson thinks there’s a good chance Bitcoin could make a strong comeback this week, possibly jumping as much as 21%.

Looking at historical data going back to 2013, he notes that October has actually been Bitcoin’s second-best month, averaging a gain of 20.1%, just behind November.

Big drops in October are pretty rare; they’ve only happened four times in the past ten years, and three of those were followed by sharp recoveries.

Even though Bitcoin recently dipped below $102,000 after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs, Peterson stays optimistic.

He points out that about half of October’s usual gains might already be in the books, but the rest of the month still looks favorable for a solid rebound.

Based on Bitcoin’s typical cycles of liquidity and market sentiment, analysts are hopeful that the month could end with Bitcoin regaining momentum and possibly breaking through some key resistance levels in the weeks ahead.

Why the latest crash is not unusual

Volatility is just part of life in the crypto world. Digital assets don’t just react to economic headlines; they are also highly sensitive to social media chatter, regulatory news, and tech developments.

Experts say that while these ups-and-downs can be risky, they also open the door for traders and investors who know how to ride the waves.

Historically, October tends to be a bumpy month for crypto, but these dips are often followed by strong rebounds as the market finds its balance.

Bottom line: the crypto space is fast-moving and unpredictable, with big risks, but potentially big rewards too.

Several factors drive this heightened volatility. For one, the market is still relatively young, so price discovery is ongoing, new investors and speculative trades can swing prices dramatically.

Unlike traditional financial markets, crypto isn’t heavily regulated, so announcements of new policies or legal actions can spark sharp reactions.

The fact that crypto markets run 24/7 only adds fuel to the fire, with no breaks or circuit breakers to cool things down.

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October 11, 2025
Deutsche Bank sees parallels between Gold and Bitcoin as central banks boost gold reserves
- Deutsche Bank says gold now makes up 24% of central bank reserves, the highest share since the 1990s.
- Analyst Marion Laboure sees parallels between gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven, low-correlation assets.
- Deutsche Bank predicts both Bitcoin and gold could join central bank reserves by 2030.
Global central banks are expanding their gold holdings at a pace not seen in decades, a trend that could have major implications for Bitcoin, according to a new report from Deutsche Bank.

The bank’s strategists noted that gold’s share of central bank reserves climbed to 24% in the second quarter, its highest level since the 1990s, marking a renewed confidence in the precious metal amid shifting global monetary dynamics.

Deutsche Bank’s findings highlight how gold’s resurgence and Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025 share several common characteristics, particularly as investors and policymakers seek alternative stores of value in an uncertain economic environment.

Central Banks’ Gold accumulation reaches multi-decade highs

The report shows that official demand for gold has doubled compared to the 2011–2021 average, signaling an intensified effort by central banks to diversify away from fiat currencies.

The strategists described this as a “significant shift in global finance,” echoing patterns seen throughout the 20th century when gold played a dominant role in global reserves.

Gold’s renewed accumulation coincides with its climb past inflation-adjusted all-time highs.

Although gold prices have been setting nominal records for several years, Deutsche Bank noted that only recently has the metal surpassed its real-adjusted peak from 1980.

“It’s only in recent weeks that gold has finally surpassed its real-adjusted all-time highs from around this point 45 years ago,” the bank’s strategists wrote.

They attributed the decades-long gap between those milestones to a combination of factors, including central bank gold sales, institutional sell-offs, and the rise of the fiat currency era.

The report also recalled that gold’s formal role as a reserve asset ended in 1979 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prohibited member countries from pegging exchange rates to gold — a move that cemented the end of the Bretton Woods system.

Bitcoin emerges as a modern parallel to Gold

Deutsche Bank’s macro strategist Marion Laboure explored potential parallels between gold and Bitcoin in a report titled “Gold’s reign, Bitcoin’s rise.”

She observed that both assets have shown similar long-term performance patterns since their inception and share a reputation for high volatility and periods of underperformance.

Laboure emphasized that both gold and Bitcoin have a low correlation with traditional financial assets, making them attractive options for diversification.

These shared traits, she suggested, contribute to their appeal as potential “safe-haven” assets in times of market uncertainty.

While Laboure acknowledged that Bitcoin’s volatility and lack of backing remain major concerns, she noted that volatility has declined to historic lows.

Other challenges — including limited adoption, speculative behavior, cybersecurity risks, and liquidity constraints — continue to limit Bitcoin’s suitability as a mainstream reserve asset, but its trajectory is drawing increasing institutional attention.

Looking ahead: Bitcoin and Gold in central bank reserves by 2030?

Despite lingering skepticism among policymakers, Laboure predicted that both Bitcoin and gold could feature on central bank balance sheets by 2030.

The forecast reflects a gradual convergence between traditional and digital stores of value, particularly as institutional adoption of Bitcoin expands and governments explore ways to diversify their reserves.

Still, she cautioned that Bitcoin’s volatility and perceived risk profile remain key barriers for central banks, whose primary mandate is to preserve capital stability.

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October 10, 2025
Bitcoin drops as bearish data sparks a 10% price dip warning
- Bitcoin has dropped below the key 120,000 dollar level amid a fresh sell-off.
- The market is showing signs of low volume and a lack of upward momentum.
- Key on-chain data shows a lack of bid support below the 120,000 dollar mark.
The triumphant return of the bulls has proven to be a fleeting and fragile affair.

Just as the market was beginning to celebrate a new era of price discovery, a wave of determined selling has sent Bitcoin tumbling back below the critical 120,000 dollar level, a brutal rejection that has the bears once again in control and raises the grim prospect of a much deeper correction.

The sell-off, which has seen the leading cryptocurrency fall nearly 3 percent on the day, is a story of fading momentum and evaporating support.

The recent all-time highs now feel like a distant memory as the market slices through the bid liquidity that had once held it aloft.

A market bracing for a deeper cut

The mood among seasoned traders has shifted from cautious optimism to a grim acceptance of a new, more bearish reality.

The market is now at a critical inflection point, with the very support that was so hard-won now under a sustained and powerful assault.

“Market does still quote bid liquidity around 121K-120K but what we need to see next is absorption of sellers to rule out a sweep lower,” the popular trader Skew wrote in his latest market commentary on X.

His short-term outlook was stark, adding that the market was “quite likely to be dominated by new shorts opening.”

This view is being reinforced by the data.

The trading resource Material Indicators highlighted that the market is now facing its “3rd consecutive Daily support test at the trend line,” a technical setup that suggests the bears are growing bolder with each attempt.

Data from CoinGlass paints an even more worrying picture, showing a distinct lack of bid support much below the 120,000 dollar mark, while a wall of sell orders has multiplied overhead.

The return of the $108,000 ghost

This short-term weakness is taking place against a backdrop of a more troubling long-term picture.

The veteran trader Roman warned his followers on X that the situation for Bitcoin remains tenuous, despite its recent record highs.

“A friendly reminder that we are once again printing more bearish divergences, low volume, & lack of momentum on HTF. Both 1W & 1M,” he wrote, pointing to a series of classic warning signs that the rally is running out of steam.

His conclusion is a chilling one for the bulls: the local range lows at 108,000 dollars, a level that has been a key battleground in the past, could soon come back into play.

The king of crypto may have briefly touched the heavens, but the bears are now doing their best to drag it back down to earth.

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October 10, 2025
Economist Timothy Peterson puts Bitcoin price forecast at $140,000 by end of this month
- Timothy Peterson’s market simulation shows a 50% chance Bitcoin hits $140K in October.
- Bitcoin recently hit $126K, needing a 14.7% rise to reach $140K.
- Other analysts, however, note likely short-term pullbacks before potential sustained gains.
Economist Timothy Peterson has projected that Bitcoin could reach $140,000 before the end of October, citing data-driven simulations that indicate a 50% probability of the world’s largest cryptocurrency closing the month above that mark.

The analysis, grounded in more than a decade of Bitcoin’s historical price behaviour, suggests that half of the cryptocurrency’s potential October gains may already have occurred.

Data-driven prediction, not speculation

Peterson’s projection, shared on X on October 7, 2025, was based on “hundreds of simulations” using Bitcoin’s daily price data since 2015.

“There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140K,” he wrote, adding that there is a 43% chance it could finish below $136,000.

According to Peterson, the forecast is purely statistical, not influenced by sentiment or subjective opinion.

He emphasised that the results were “based purely on real data, not human emotion or biased opinion,” designed to reflect Bitcoin’s historical volatility and cyclical rhythm.

At the time of his analysis, Bitcoin was trading at around $122,000, having cooled slightly after setting a new all-time high of $126,200 earlier in the week.

Reaching $140,000 would require a roughly 14.7% gain from current levels, a move that aligns closely with Bitcoin’s average October performance over the past decade.

Historical data from CoinGlass shows that October has been Bitcoin’s second-best month since 2013, typically delivering gains of about 20.75%.

October’s historical significance for Bitcoin

Peterson explained that “Bitcoin’s performance in October isn’t ‘set up’ by September, it’s set up throughout the entire year.”

Bitcoin’s performance in October isn’t “set up” by September, its set up throughout the entire year.

This chart plots Jan–Sept returns vs. October returns since 2015. The stronger Bitcoin performs through the first nine months, the stronger October tends to be. October has… pic.twitter.com/MLtqz5znkD

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 2, 2025

The economist linked Bitcoin’s seasonal strength to broader financial patterns, such as the end of third-quarter portfolio rebalancing, the start of fiscal year planning, and the approach of year-end reporting windows for investment funds.

These factors, he suggested, create favourable conditions for renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin and other risk assets.

While Peterson’s model offers a probability-based outlook, he cautioned that markets do not always conform perfectly to historical patterns.

Bitcoin’s past behaviour has occasionally diverged from expectations even when data indicated high confidence levels.

Nonetheless, he maintains that the model provides a “clear, probability-based picture” of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely to move in the short term.

Market sentiment leans bullish

Peterson’s forecast comes as market sentiment around Bitcoin remains generally optimistic.

Crypto analysts such as Jelle and Matthew Hyland have echoed bullish outlooks in recent days, highlighting Bitcoin’s successful retest of previous highs and suggesting that momentum could push prices further upward.

Earlier this week, Jelle posted, “It’s definitely over for bears. Send it higher,” while Hyland noted that “the pressure is building.”

However, not all voices in the market are calling for an immediate surge.

Analyst Ardi, known for his technical commentary, pointed out that Bitcoin often experiences a short-term pullback of around 5% after hitting new all-time highs.

Such moves, Ardi said, are typically followed by a period of choppiness and consolidation—a pattern that could play out again before any sustained rally.

$BTC loves to dump ~5% after it hits new ATHs, normally followed by a period of chop and consolidation.

Rest of the market most likely chops with it. pic.twitter.com/iZMqaUV6Qc

— Ardi (@AltcoinArdi) October 8, 2025

Technical outlook supports Bitcoin’s upward potential

Technical indicators also appear to support a bullish bias in the near term.

According to market analysis, Bitcoin’s key support level stands at $120,899, with immediate resistance at $124,148 and a higher target of $126,021.

The cryptocurrency is currently trading above all major exponential moving averages (10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs), signalling strong upward momentum.

Projections are that Bitcoin could reach around $121,633 in the coming days, with longer-term forecasts setting ambitious price targets of $221,485 for 2025.

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October 8, 2025