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  • Bitcoin, Ethereum hold steady as crypto braces for a historically brutal September

    Bitcoin, Ethereum hold steady as crypto braces for a historically brutal September

    Bitcoin, Ethereum hold steady as crypto braces for a historically brutal September

    • The crypto market is bracing for “Red September,” its historically worst month.
    • The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plummeted into the “fear” zone.
    • Bitcoin is holding critical support around the 108,000 dollar level for now.

    A fragile and deceptive calm has settled over the cryptocurrency market as September begins, a quiet start to what history warns is the cruelest and most unforgiving month of the year.

    While prices are holding steady for now, a powerful undercurrent of fear is gripping traders, as seasonal weakness collides with a high-stakes macroeconomic picture, setting the stage for a potentially volatile and brutal few weeks.

    The shift in sentiment has been swift and severe.

    The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a key barometer of market psychology, has plummeted from a confident 75 out of 100 in mid-August to just 46 today, plunging the market from “neutral” territory deep into the “fear” zone.

    It is the worst reading since the dark days of mid-June.

    This growing anxiety is rooted in the hard data of market history. Since 2013, Bitcoin has dropped an average of 3.77 percent every September, a grim and consistent pattern that has earned the month its ominous nickname: “Red September.”

    The Battle for $108,000

    For now, a tense battle is being waged on the charts. Bitcoin is showing a flicker of resilience, holding above the psychologically critical $108,000 support level.

    But a deeper look at the technical indicators reveals a market on a knife’s edge, caught in a state of profound indecision.

    The Average Directional Index (ADX) is hovering at 20, a reading that suggests a choppy, directionless market.

    At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 is flashing a clear warning: the “Red September” effect is taking hold, with selling pressure beginning to dominate.

    The Squeeze Momentum Indicator confirms this, showing that while a big move may not be imminent, the underlying trend remains distinctly bearish.

    The most telling sign may be in the exponential moving averages (EMAs). While the broader configuration remains bullish, with the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA, the gap between the two is ominously starting to close.

    This signals a dangerous deceleration of the bullish trend and raises the specter of a “death cross,” a technical pattern that would confirm a deep and protracted bear market.

    The shadow of the Fed looms large

    This internal market struggle is playing out under the long shadow of the Federal Reserve.

    The central bank’s upcoming policy meeting on September 16-17 may well be one of the most contentious in years, a pivotal showdown that could determine the fate of all risk assets.

    With markets currently implying an 87 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut, the crypto market is trapped between the rock of seasonal weakness and the hard place of potential monetary relief.

    Prediction markets are reflecting this bearish tilt.

    On Myriad, traders now give Bitcoin a 75 percent chance of dropping to 105,000 dollars in the near future, a stunning reversal from just two weeks ago when the same market was pricing in a 90 percent chance of a surge to 125,000 dollars.

    The storm clouds are gathering, and the calm of this early September morning may not last for long.

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  • Bitcoin ETFs see first-ever outflow of $751 million as Ethereum funds gain $3.9 billion

    Bitcoin ETFs see first-ever outflow of $751 million as Ethereum funds gain $3.9 billion

    Bitcoin ETFs see first-ever outflow of $751 million as Ethereum funds gain $3.9 billion

    • Bitcoin ETFs saw a $751 million net outflow in August, a first-ever event.
    • Ethereum ETFs absorbed a massive $3.9 billion in net inflows in August.
    • BTC’s price has fallen below key short-term holder cost basis levels.

    A stunning and unprecedented reversal has rattled the very foundations of the cryptocurrency market.

    For the first time since their celebrated launch, the institutional tide that carried Bitcoin to a record high has turned, with spot ETFs bleeding hundreds of millions of dollars in August.

    At the same time, a powerful and quiet current of capital has been flowing into Ethereum, signaling a potential changing of the guard and the beginning of a major rotation story that could define the rest of the year.

    The scale of the divergence is stark. In August, just weeks after they powered the asset to a 124,000 dollar all-time high, Bitcoin spot funds shed a staggering 751 million dollars in net outflows.

    In that same period, Ethereum ETFs quietly absorbed an incredible 3.9 billion dollars, a profound role reversal that suggests institutional investors may be fundamentally rebalancing their crypto exposure.

    Bitcoin’s fragile foundation

    The pain for Bitcoin is not just in the ETF flow data; it’s etched into the blockchain itself. A recent report from the analytics firm Glassnode paints a picture of a market slipping from euphoria into deep fragility.

    The analysis shows Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the cost basis of both 1-month and 3-month holders, a critical development that leaves a huge cohort of recent investors underwater and dramatically increases the risk of a deeper, panic-driven sell-off.

    If the price continues to slide below the six-month cost basis near 107,000 dollars, Glassnode warns, it could accelerate losses toward the crucial 93,000 to 95,000 dollar support zone, a dense cluster of accumulation by long-term holders.

    Prediction markets are echoing this cautious sentiment.

    Traders on Polymarket now assign a 65 percent chance that Bitcoin revisits 100,000 dollars before it retakes 130,000 dollars, a clear sign that the July rally is now seen as overextended and unsustainable without a renewed wave of institutional demand.

    Ethereum: the quiet ballast

    While Bitcoin falters, Ethereum is emerging as a quiet and powerful source of stability. Its ETF inflows have been remarkably consistent, logging positive net subscriptions in 10 of the last 12 months.

    August’s 3.9 billion dollar haul has been the engine behind the token’s impressive 25 percent gain over the past 30 days, a stunning outperformance during a brutal market-wide correction.

    The conviction behind Ethereum’s rise is firm. Polymarket traders see over 90 percent odds of the asset holding above 3,800 dollars into early September, and longer-term bets give it a 71 percent chance of finishing 2025 above the coveted 5,000 dollar mark.

    As Bitcoin’s institutional tide flows out, Ethereum’s steadier bid is becoming the market’s new anchor. The great rotation may be in its early stages, but the signs are unmistakable.

    A new power dynamic is taking shape, and the battle for crypto’s throne is just beginning.

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  • Bitcoin remains under pressure as gold targets a new all-time high

    Bitcoin remains under pressure as gold targets a new all-time high

    Bitcoin remains under pressure as gold targets a new all-time high

    • Bitcoin’s rally attempt fails as it retreats to below 112,000 dollars.
    • Gold continues its quiet but powerful climb, nearing its all-time high.
    • In August, gold is up nearly 4 percent while Bitcoin has fallen over 5 percent.

    A hopeful rally in the cryptocurrency market was decisively crushed on Thursday, as steady selling pressure throughout the US trading session sent prices into a familiar retreat.

    The failed bounce underscores a growing sense of fatigue in the digital asset space and throws a stark and revealing light on the silent, powerful ascent of its analog rival: gold.

    After a brief flirtation with the 113,000 dollar level, Bitcoin (BTC) was beaten back, sinking to 111,800 late in the session for a loss of 0.7 percent over the past 24 hours.

    The selling was even more pronounced in other major tokens, with Ether (ETH) and XRP shedding a more sizable 2.1 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

    The one notable bright spot in a sea of red was Solana’s SOL, which managed to buck the trend with a respectable 3.1 percent gain.

    A silent ascent to the summit

    While the crypto market grapples with its own inertia, a different story is unfolding in the world of precious metals.

    Quietly, but with unshakable conviction, gold has been on the rise. The yellow metal added another 0.8 percent on Thursday, climbing to 3,477 dollars per ounce.

    This puts the safe-haven asset just a few dollars shy of the record high of 3,534 dollars it touched earlier this month.

    The performance in August paints an even more dramatic picture of this great divergence: while Bitcoin has slid 5.2 percent, gold has rallied by nearly 4 percent.

    The great disconnect

    This decoupling is the great mystery currently haunting the market.

    The very same macroeconomic tailwinds that are propelling gold higher—namely, the prospect of lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar—are conspicuously failing to ignite any significant bid for “digital gold.”

    The fundamental case for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and a store of value is being put to a severe test, and for now, it is failing.

    A September showdown looms

    The stage is now set for a potentially volatile final four months of the year.

    The resumption of Federal Reserve rate cuts appears to be firmly on the table for September, a move that could be amplified by President Trump’s appointment of one or possibly two new, likely dovish, members to the Fed’s board.

    As these powerful forces converge, the market is watching to see if Bitcoin can finally catch the golden tailwind or if its strange and troubling disconnect is a sign of a deeper malaise.

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  • JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold as volatility plummets

    JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold as volatility plummets

    The report suggests this shift is making Bitcoin more credible, much like traditional assets. It’s solidifying its role as both an investment and a store of value in mainstream markets.

    In fact, corporate treasuries now hold more than 6% of the total Bitcoin supply.

    Publicly traded companies are also gaining exposure by being included in stock indices, which brings in more money without them having to directly trade crypto.

    Following up on that, JPMorgan’s analysis also shows that Bitcoin is undervalued by about $16,000 when you compare it to gold, using models that account for volatility.

    Their report puts an implied price target for Bitcoin at roughly $126,000.

    This suggests there’s a lot of room for the price to grow as the market catches up to Bitcoin’s new stability and its growing role with institutional investors.

    Even though Bitcoin’s price has been resiliently holding above $111,000, this valuation gap means there’s still a lot of potential for it to appreciate further as more people adopt it and its volatility stays low.

    Market dynamics and future outlook

    In their analysis, JPMorgan also points to a shift in market dynamics. Passive capital, which is the money coming from index funds that buy shares in companies holding Bitcoin, is creating a steady demand.

    This helps shield Bitcoin from being driven solely by speculative trading.

    They also noted that the 200-day moving average has been a strong technical support level, which reinforces a long-term bullish outlook even with small, short-term price swings.

    Still, some indicators show that traders are keeping cautious hedging positions in the options markets. This reflects a more short-term bearish sentiment, even though the overall trend remains positive.

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  • UAE identified as holding $700M in Bitcoin from mining operations

    UAE identified as holding $700M in Bitcoin from mining operations

    AI generated image for Bitcoin in a vault

    • According to blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence, the United Arab Emirates holds about $700 million in Bitcoin.

    • Arkham traced the mining activity to Citadel Mining, which it said was established in Abu Dhabi in 2022.

    • Based on Arkham’s report and estimates from BitBo, the UAE ranks sixth among sovereign Bitcoin holders.

    The United Arab Emirates holds about $700 million in Bitcoin, primarily accumulated from mining operations, according to blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence.

    In a post on X on Monday, Arkham said it had become one of the first to publicly identify the UAE government’s wallets, estimating that they contain about 6,300 Bitcoin.

    The holdings were attributed to mining conducted through Citadel Mining, a company majority owned by the government-backed International Holding Company (IHC).

    Arkham noted that, unlike the United States and the United Kingdom, where national Bitcoin holdings have largely come from police asset seizures, the UAE’s reserves are linked directly to mining.

    Speculation around the country’s Bitcoin exposure had previously suggested much larger reserves.

    Market rumors often placed the UAE’s holdings at around 420,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $46 billion at current prices, and allegedly sourced from seizures of illicit activity.

    Those estimates, if accurate, would have positioned the UAE as the largest sovereign Bitcoin holder globally.

    Arkham’s findings, however, put the figure substantially lower.

    Mining operations tied to royal-linked conglomerates

    Arkham traced the mining activity to Citadel Mining, which it said was established in Abu Dhabi in 2022.

    The firm reported that the venture was developed in collaboration with Phoenix Group, a publicly listed UAE mining company, and the IHC.

    Arkham added that it corroborated the timeline of on-chain mining activity with satellite imagery showing the construction of the facility.

    The company said on-chain transactions between Phoenix and Citadel also matched figures disclosed in official documents.

    Based on its analysis, Arkham estimated that Citadel Mining has mined a total of 9,300 Bitcoin to date.

    Citadel Mining is 85% owned by 2pointzero, a holding entity controlled by IHC.

    The IHC itself is majority owned by the UAE Royal Group, a conglomerate led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi’s royal family, which holds a 61% stake.

    How UAE compares with other nation-states

    Based on Arkham’s report and estimates from BitBo, the UAE ranks sixth among sovereign Bitcoin holders.

    Its reserves place it behind Bhutan, which holds 11,286 Bitcoin, and ahead of El Salvador, which holds 6,246.

    The United States remains the largest holder with 198,012 Bitcoin, most of it originating from law enforcement seizures.

    China follows with 194,000, mainly stemming from its 2019 crackdown on the PlusToken scam, while the UK ranks third with 61,245.

    BitBo estimates that sovereign entities collectively hold about 517,000 Bitcoin, or 2.4% of the total circulating supply, with a total value exceeding $56 billion.

    In the corporate sector, Michael Saylor’s firm MicroStrategy is cited as the largest institutional holder, with a treasury of 629,376 Bitcoin, representing about 2.9% of the supply.

    The company continues to expand its Bitcoin reserves.

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  • Bitcoin slips below $110,000 as analysts warn of ‘brittle’ market structure

    Bitcoin slips below $110,000 as analysts warn of ‘brittle’ market structure

    Bitcoin slips below 110,000 as analysts warn of 'brittle' market structure

    • The crypto bull run is fraying as Bitcoin slips below $110,000.
    • A massive whale sale triggered over 500 million in liquidations.
    • A huge divergence: Retail is selling while institutions are buying.

    The crypto bull run is fraying at the edges, its momentum faltering in the face of a profound and unsettling contradiction.

    On the surface, the market is a picture of fragility and fear, with thinning liquidity, massive liquidations, and a Bitcoin price struggling to hold the line.



    But beneath this chaotic veneer, a different story is unfolding: one of quiet, colossal, and strategic accumulation by the world’s financial titans.

    The immediate pain is undeniable. Bitcoin is trading just below $110,000 after another failed attempt to bounce, marking a roughly 7% decline since its euphoric peak after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish speech.

    Ethereum, which briefly tasted the air near 4,900, has been sharply rejected and is now battling to hold $4,300, showing clear signs of exhaustion after weeks of outperformance.

    This weakness cascaded through the altcoin market on Monday, with ETH, SOL, DOGE, and others sliding 6-8%, triggering a brutal 700 million liquidation event that overwhelmingly punished long positions.

    A structure of glass: the anatomy of a collapse

    For many market observers, this is a textbook case of a rally running on fumes. The analytics firm Glassnode, in its latest Market Pulse, paints a grim picture of the cycle slipping from euphoria into fragility.

    They point to fading spot momentum, a stunning 1 billion swing to outflows in ETFs, and realized profits collapsing back to breakeven.

    This structural weakness was laid bare in a brutal weekend crash, the anatomy of which was traced by QCP Capital.

    They revealed that the collapse was initiated by a single early holder unloading a massive 24,000 BTC into dangerously thin liquidity.

    The sale cascaded through the market, triggering $500 million in liquidations and exposing, as QCP noted, just how brittle the system has become.

    The quiet accumulators: a different breed of buyer

    But this is only half the story. The Singapore-based market maker Enflux argues that a myopic focus on the retail washout misses the bigger picture. Not all flows, they contend, are created equal.

    While leveraged retail traders were being blown out, a different kind of player was making its move.

    Enflux points to a staggering $2.55 billion ETH stake routed through a single contract and the UAE royal family’s 700 million BTC exposure via Citadel Mining.

    These are not speculative punts; they are the deliberate, programmatic footprints of sovereign and institutional allocators. In their analysis, these giants are intentionally “using volatility to scale into size.”

    This is the great divergence: a market where the short-term conviction of the crowd is shattered, while the long-horizon conviction of the “smart money” is quietly being deployed.

    A bleak September looms?

    The problem, however, is that this long-term institutional buying does little to solve the immediate crisis of liquidity on the Bitcoin blockchain itself.

    With transaction fees collapsing toward decade lows and blocks clearing with little congestion, the network is running quiet.

    This is a critical issue for miners, who are already squeezed by the halving, and it leaves the broader market exposed and bracing for what comes next.

    As September—historically Bitcoin’s weakest month—approaches, the market is on a knife’s edge.

    The battle between the fragile, fleeing retail trader and the patient, accumulating giant will determine whether the next move is a painful consolidation or a much deeper, darker drawdown.

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  • Bitcoin drops to $111K as post-Jackson Hole bounce fades

    Bitcoin drops to $111K as post-Jackson Hole bounce fades

    Bitcoin Price

    • Bitcoin price has dropped to lows of $110,956 as gains seen on Friday disappear.
    • The downturn has accelerated amid the BTC sell-off and decline in dominance.
    • Analysts say Bitcoin can extend losses below $110k amid wider fall.

    Bitcoin’s downturn since the brief surge post Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday has extended to below $111k.

    The benchmark digital asset has slipped more than 3% to drop to lows of $110,956 across major exchanges, with BTC struggling as the bounce that followed Powell’s comments on cryptocurrency quickly fades.

    Bitcoin’s dominance was also falling sharply, down to around 57%.

    Analysts remain bullish, but could Bitcoin price drop below $110k and trigger further losses?

    Bitcoin extends dip to $111k

    Cryptocurrencies spiked on Friday as risk assets exploded amid comments by Powell that the central bank could consider cutting rates sooner.

    However, the brief rally that followed the Jackson Hole economic symposium has since swiftly unravelled, with Bitcoin plummeting to touch lows of $110k.

    On Aug. 22, BTC saw an intraday peak of $117k – up from lows of $113k earlier in the day.

    According to QCP, the downturn to current prices comes as an early whale offloaded a substantial $2.7 billion in BTC.

    This rapid sell-off has accelerated a dip in BTC dominance, which hovers around 57%.

    Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s weakness has been evidenced by a dip in spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows, with six consecutive sessions of outflows putting bulls under pressure.

    What next for BTC? Analysts’ take

    Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains largely bullish, and a bounce to the all-time high above $124k is not an impossibility.

    However, analysts at Glassnode are pointing to a short-term downside arc.

    Particularly, all Bitcoin cohorts, with those in the 10- 100 BTC group biggest sellers, are in a distribution phase.

    Increased selling could be bad news for bulls as a breakdown below $110k could ensue.

    But despite this outlook, analysts at QCP Group maintain that Bitcoin is bullish.

    The analysts say that despite the current sell-off, buyers can easily absorb the pressure as happened in July.

    With BTC dominance slipping, it is Ethereum that may benefit, the analysts said.

    “BTC dominance slipped from 60% to 57%. Still above the sub-50% levels of 2021, but enough to fuel speculation that whales expect $ETH to outperform, especially if ETH staking ETFs secure approval later this year,” QCP noted.

    Bitcoin price currently hovers around $111,200, bouncing off lows last seen in early July. Investors will be watching that $110k level as well as broader market conditions.

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  • Bitcoin whale shifts $76m into Ethereum with leveraged bets amid ‘Ethereum season’

    Bitcoin whale shifts $76m into Ethereum with leveraged bets amid ‘Ethereum season’

    Bitcoin whale shifts $76m into Ethereum with leveraged bets amid ‘Ethereum season’

    • Whale opened $295m ETH longs with up to 10x leverage.
    • ETH ETFs attracted one year’s worth of inflows in six weeks.
    • Institutional ETH reserves surged from $6bn to $17bn in a month.

    An old Bitcoin (BTC) whale has moved millions into Ethereum (ETH), marking one of the largest visible portfolio shifts this quarter.

    Blockchain data shows the whale deposited $76 million worth of BTC into Hyperliquid, sold it, and then opened leveraged long positions in ETH across multiple wallets.

    This transition comes at a time when Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin, both in returns and institutional inflows, a trend some are calling the start of an “Ethereum season.”

    The move also coincides with surging ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and growing treasury allocations to altcoins.

    Whale repositions holdings into Ethereum

    According to blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain, the whale originally acquired 14,837 BTC seven years ago from HTX and Binance at an average cost of $7,242 per coin.

    That purchase, worth $107.5 million at the time, has since grown to more than $1.6 billion.

    Recent transactions show the whale deposited 670.1 BTC, valued at $76 million, into the decentralised trading platform Hyperliquid.

    Following the sale, they initiated long positions worth 68,130 ETH (around $295 million) across four wallets.

    Most trades were executed with leverage of up to 10x, amplifying potential gains or losses.

    Latest HypurrScan data revealed that all of the whale’s wallets are now facing unrealised losses totalling $1.8 million.

    Despite that, the large-scale diversification highlights a clear shift towards ETH during a period when its performance is outpacing BTC.

    Market data from Coinglass shows ETH has delivered a 71.91% return so far in the third quarter, compared to just 6.28% for BTC.

    Ethereum’s gains have pushed analysts to identify the current period as “Ethereum season,” where capital is increasingly flowing into ETH instead of Bitcoin.

    The momentum has been mirrored in market activity, with Ethereum consistently outpacing Bitcoin in daily returns since the start of the quarter.

    Institutional shift fuels Ethereum demand

    Institutional interest in Ethereum has risen sharply. Corporate purchases of Bitcoin for treasury reserves have declined, with just 2.8 companies per day adding BTC to their holdings. By contrast, Ethereum is seeing sustained inflows.

    The Strategic ETH Reserve website reported that ETH holdings by institutional entities rose from $6 billion to $17 billion in the past month, representing an 183% increase.

    This accumulation points to confidence in Ethereum’s market trajectory and its positioning in the broader crypto cycle.

    The whale’s leveraged entry into ETH aligns with this wider trend, suggesting individual and institutional strategies are converging on Ethereum as the asset leading the altcoin phase of the cycle.

    Ethereum season signals next altcoin cycle phase

    Ethereum’s surge is widely viewed as part of the broader “altseason” cycle. In this framework, capital first flows into Bitcoin, then Ethereum, and eventually spreads across other altcoins before a peak.

    With ETH already outperforming BTC in both Q2 and Q3, and institutional investment accelerating, analysts suggest the market may now be entering the second phase of the altcoin cycle.

    The whale’s move to convert part of its BTC into ETH reflects this trend, with its $76 million bet highlighting how long-term holders are adapting to market shifts.

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  • The altcoin uprising: Ether, Solana, and BNB defy market fear as Bitcoin stalls

    The altcoin uprising: Ether, Solana, and BNB defy market fear as Bitcoin stalls

    The altcoin uprising: Ether, Solana, and BNB defy market fear as Bitcoin stalls

    • Major altcoins like Ether and Solana are strongly outperforming Bitcoin.
    • BNB, the token of BNB Chain, surged 6% to a new all-time high of 875.
    • Bitcoin’s market dominance is on the verge of hitting a new six-month low.

    In a stunning display of defiance, a powerful cohort of major altcoins staged a dramatic comeback on Wednesday, completely eclipsing Bitcoin and brushing off a wave of risk-aversion that sent traditional stock markets lower.

    The move signals a potential changing of the guard, as leadership in the digital asset space appears to be shifting, at least for now, from the king to its court.

    The rebellion was led by BNB, the native token of the BNB Chain, which blasted through to a fresh all-time high, surging 6% to hit 875.

    The ferocity of the rebound was just as palpable in the Ethereum market, where Ether (ETH) rocketed 7% from its overnight lows to 4,350, completely erasing all of Tuesday’s losses in a single, powerful move.

    Some market observers speculated the rally was fueled by ETH treasury firms strategically buying the dip.

    The strength was broad-based. Solana’s SOL gained a formidable 6.1%, also outpacing its recent decline, while tokens for ChainLink and AAVE put on even more impressive shows, soaring 10% and 7%, respectively.

    A king on shaky ground

    While the altcoin market was exploding with activity, Bitcoin was a sea of calm. The leading cryptocurrency advanced a modest 1.4% from its lows, trading just above 114,000.

    This tepid performance was more in line with the broader capital markets, where major stock indices like the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed in the red.

    This stark divergence is forcing a market-wide reassessment. The relative strength of altcoins during a period of fear is a notable and potentially significant signal.

    Bitcoin’s dominance—a key metric measuring its share of the total crypto market capitalization—is now teetering on the brink of a new six-month low.

    Historically, a sustained fall in Bitcoin’s dominance is the classic harbinger of an “altcoin season,” a period where smaller, riskier tokens take the lead.

    But before investors get carried away by dreams of repeating the wild, speculative rallies of past cycles, a crucial note of caution has been sounded.

    Analysts at ByteTree, led by Shehriyar Ali and Charlie Morris, warn that the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.

    “An alt season may be brewing, but it will not look like the wild rallies of the past,” their report stated. 

    Instead, it will be defined by selective, fundamentals-driven growth, rewarding quality projects and penalising those without substance.

    The message is clear: the era of blind speculation may be over. The current uprising is not lifting all boats equally.

    Instead, it appears to be a more discerning, mature rebellion, one that is selectively rewarding projects perceived to have genuine value and long-term potential.

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  • Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin as best-performing asset over next decade

    Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin as best-performing asset over next decade

    Bitwise projects Bitcoin to deliver 28% annual returns over the next decade.

    • Bitwise projects Bitcoin to deliver 28% annual returns over the next decade.
    • Institutions now view Bitcoin like equities and bonds for portfolio allocation.
    • Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries fuel Bitcoin’s growing long-term adoption.

    Bitwise Asset Management expects bitcoin to deliver the strongest returns of any major asset class over the next ten years, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 28% with gradually declining volatility.

    The forecast was shared in a new memo previewing the firm’s forthcoming Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.

    Institutional demand spurs framework

    The report, authored by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, is targeted at large platforms and professional allocators that are increasingly treating bitcoin as a “core” portfolio consideration.

    Hougan notes that the shift follows the launch and widespread approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have opened the asset class to mainstream retirement accounts and wealth platforms.

    Interest in long-term planning has grown markedly.

    Hougan said Bitwise received a dozen requests this year for long-term assumptions around bitcoin, compared with none between 2017 and 2024.

    In his view, this marks an inflection point: institutions are now evaluating bitcoin in the same way they assess equities, bonds, and other traditional assets.

    Favourable comparisons with traditional markets

    While the full report is yet to be published, the preview states that bitcoin’s projected returns, volatility profile, and correlations compare favourably with established asset classes.

    Bitwise characterises bitcoin’s correlations with other major assets as “low”, falling between −0.5 and 0.5, which many allocators value for diversification benefits.

    The asset manager’s positioning of bitcoin’s outlook draws parallels with annual capital-market forecasts issued by large Wall Street firms such as JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.

    These outlooks help institutions determine long-term strategic allocations across asset classes including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.

    Hougan argues that similar guidance is now warranted for digital assets, given their growing maturity and integration into mainstream investment products.

    Growing Onchain and corporate holdings

    Since spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they have quickly gained traction.

    On-chain holdings tied to these ETFs have grown to represent almost 7% of bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply, with assets under management exceeding $146 billion, according to data from The Block.

    Corporate treasuries have also expanded their exposure.

    Publicly traded companies, led by MicroStrategy with a holding of 629,376 BTC, have collectively accumulated more than $80 billion worth of bitcoin.

    These acquisitions have been financed largely through capital market activities, including equity offerings and convertible debt issuance.

    Bitwise’s full Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is expected later this week.

    It will provide detailed methodology and quantitative analysis, alongside side-by-side comparisons with forecasts for traditional asset classes from leading global asset managers.

    For Bitwise, the release marks a bid to position bitcoin within the same framework used for decades to evaluate traditional investments.

    For institutions, it reflects a growing acceptance of bitcoin not as a speculative play, but as a serious allocation option with defined risk and return expectations.

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