- Bitcoin posted its first negative October performance in six years, now trading at $107k.
- Fed’s hawkish comments on a potential December rate cut pressured the price.
- November has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months (42% mean return).
Bitcoin is entering November on uncertain footing after suffering its first negative October performance in six years, a downturn that has left investors questioning whether the move was a healthy correction or the start of a deeper bear trend.
The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading around $107,000, down 1.4% in the last 24 hours.
The recent price weakness culminated in a significant deleveraging event on November 3, which saw over $1.16 billion in leveraged long positions liquidated, highlighting the intensity of the sell-off.
Macro headwinds drive a ‘red October’
The negative monthly performance occurred against a complex macroeconomic backdrop.
While the US Federal Reserve delivered an anticipated rate cut, subsequent comments from Chair Jerome Powell tempered market expectations for another cut in December, creating uncertainty that pressured risk assets like Bitcoin.
This caution was reflected in market data, with Bitcoin’s US-session returns cooling from a positive 0.94% on October 29 to a negative 4.56% over the past week, according to Velo data.
On a more positive note, geopolitical tensions have eased following the trade agreement reached between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A mid-cycle correction or the end of the bull run?
Despite the recent downturn, some market experts believe the sell-off is a constructive development for the broader bull market.
“So could this red October actually set up the next major leg of Bitcoin’s bull cycle? I think that’s entirely possible,” Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, told Decrypt.
Corrections like this tend to be the midpoint of a broader cycle rather than the end.
This optimistic view is supported by strong on-chain data, which indicates that long-term structural demand from holders remains robust despite the short-term price volatility.
History suggests a strong November rebound is possible
Historical performance data also provides a bullish case for the coming month. November has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, posting an average return of 42% over the past 12 years.
This trend, combined with a still-positive mean return of 6.05% for the third quarter, suggests the underlying uptrend remains intact.
“For November, I expect a period of stabilization and cautious optimism,” Lin said.
Bitcoin may trade sideways early in the month as markets absorb Fed commentary, but a decisive shift in tone could trigger a recovery.
The expert maintains that if Bitcoin continues to follow its typical post-halving cycle, the long-term outlook remains bright.
Citing strong fundamentals from ETF inflows to institutional adoption, Lin believes “a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach.”
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