Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at LO:TECH, a London-based crypto trading and market data firm, is more cautious. His base case is an $85,000–$95,000 trading range into year-end.
“Macro has gone against Bitcoin all year, with the Fed hiking in September and a December hike priced at roughly 75%,” McCarthy said. “This will continue to weigh on bitcoin.”
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September. Inflation figures released Oct. 14 complicated the outlook: consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, while core prices increased 0.3%. Gasoline accounted for more than half of the headline increase.
McCarthy said a return above $100,000 would require expectations for a December hike to give way to a pause, supported by easing oil prices and inflation.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, sees a similar tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment. Cooling prices would give the Fed more room to respond to labor-market weakness; further inflation pressure could keep policy restrictive and weigh on bitcoin.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $81,500 at publication time.
Less leverage, potential for a squeeze
Luca Invernizzi, senior derivatives trader at Laser Digital, Nomura’s crypto subsidiary, expects bitcoin to remain largely a macro trade into year-end, taking its direction from longer-dated Treasury yields.
